NFL betting tips: Week 15 best bets including Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

NFL betting tips: Week 15

3pts Dalton Schultz (Texans) over 30.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (General)

1pts Dalton Schultz (Texans) 50+ receiving yards at 29/10 (bet365)

2pts Lions & Bills both to score over 23.5 points at 20/21 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

• Sunday 1800 GMT - live on Sky Sports

The NFL is all about match-ups and there’s one of particular interest in Houston’s clash with Miami this weekend.

Amid the Texans’ narrow victory over Jacksonville on Sunday, Dalton Schultz had his most impactful game of the season.

The 28-year-old tight end has had a quiet year relative to his usual standards. He’s snagged five touchdowns in each of his previous two seasons and – while with the Cowboys back in 2021 – he was a key component of the top-scoring offence in the NFL, scoring eight touchdowns and racking up over 800 yards.

This year, he’s been more low-key, coinciding with some up-and-down performances from his young quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans on the whole.

Regardless, Sunday was more like it. Schultz caught five passes to the tune of 61 yards and his first touchdown of the season.

In the grand scheme of the NFL, those numbers aren’t exactly mind-blowing so of all the players I could write about this week, why is Schultz the focus?

It’s all about the match-up.

Miami have allowed 2,941 receiving yards so far this season. For context, that figure ranks tenth in the NFL, so all-in-all they’re a pretty good defensive unit. However, an interesting caveat is that 731 of those yards have been allowed to players in the tight-end position. That works out at a shade under 25% of all passing activity; 24.85% to be exact.

That’s a high percentage and - through 13 games of the season – needless to say opposing teams have noticed.

Since week eight, tight ends have been averaging a massive 10.85 targets per game against the Dolphins defence and – overall since week one – the position has seen a 24% share of all targets Miami have faced. That’s the highest mark in the NFL.

The 2024 version of Dalton Schultz is not a superstar tight end in the mould of a Brock Bowers and Stroud certainly has other options to utilise, but it’s pretty evident that we can expect him to see uplifted activity on Sunday.

Stroud has averaged 239 yards of passing offence per game so far this season and 25% of that total is a touch under 60 yards. Based on a 13-week case study, that’s the expectation.

Schultz isn’t the only tight end on Houston’s roster, but he does account for 73% of Stroud’s tight end targets, and he’s coming off his best performance of the season. Cade Stover – the #2 TE on the team – caught only one pass for four yards against the Jaguars and was a relative non-factor.

The chances of Schultz clearing his line of 30.5 receiving yards on Sunday look great and I’d be willing to have a sprinkle on an alternate line too. He’s had six 31+-yard games so far this season - despite a down year – and he won’t see a better opportunity this season to have a big day.

He averages 10.3 yards per reception and Miami have allowed eight TE receptions per game over their last four outings. Whichever way we use the stats, everything points to profit with this one. I’ll recommend 50+ yards, but with a touch of luck, there could even be further room to stretch.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

• Sunday 2125 GMT - live on Sky Sports

The Buffalo Bills head to Detroit in the pursuit of history.

Since their week seven victory over the Tennessee Titans, Josh Allen’s side have scored at least 30 points in each and every game they’ve played. The streak has reached seven and that’s significant as no team in the history of the NFL has ever gone beyond eight straight 30+-point games.

Can they do it one more time? Well, in short, they may have to.

Despite their incredible scoring run, Buffalo are still only the second-highest scoring team in the league, which tells you everyone you need to know about the Detroit Lions.

Through 13 weeks of the season, Dan Campbell’s men have scored 417 points at a rate of 32.1 per outing. If they can keep up this pace – and there’s been little to suggest they can’t – they’ll be the most prolific scoring team since the 2019 Baltimore Ravens.

In short, keep your diary clear for 9:25 on Sunday evening and get the popcorn in.

Points are clearly going to be the order of the day, but the bookmakers are well aware. The total match points line is around the 55-mark at the time of writing and although that’s fairly reasonable in a game featuring offences of this stature, I’m always wary of going that high.

However, the potency of these two teams simply can’t be ignored, so we’ll go a slightly different (and hopefully safer) route.

Both teams to score over 23.5 points is available at a slightly better price and I much prefer this course of action.

As aforementioned, Buffalo have seven-straight 30+ point games and Detroit have scored 24+ in eight of their last nine. Plus, there’s plenty of confidence we can take from both teams’ most recent games.

The Lions were pushed all the way by Green Bay a week ago, eventually claiming a 34-31 victory thanks to a last-gasp field goal. The Packers had sustained success against Detroit’s third-ranked defence and their performance makes for a nice blueprint for the Bills.

Meanwhile, Buffalo were involved in the game of the season. They fell to the Rams in an explosive 44-42 classic at SoFi Stadium.

Picking a winner in this match-up wouldn’t be for the faint-hearted and I’d have a tough time going against either side at the moment, but recent displays suggests that regardless of who picks up the win, their opponent should not be far behind.

Both teams to surpass 24 points is the play, a bet you should be able to create using your choice of bet-building tools. It's touching evens with bet365.

Posted at 1445 GMT on 14/12/24

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