NFL betting tips: Week 1 best bets including Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

NFL betting tips: Week 1

3pts Bijan Robinson (Falcons) to score anytime at 10/11 (General)

1pt Chargers (-2.5) and over 44.5 total match points at 7/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Ceedee Lamb to score & Dallas Cowboys to win at 14/5 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Week one being week one, the difficulty level of simply picking teams on the money line is ramped right up.

In many cases, it’s been nine months since we’ve seen teams on the field and getting a steer on how certain teams will go in 2024 will likely take a week or two.

However, that doesn’t mean the week one betting market is devoid of value. In fact, quite the opposite. We just have to dig a little deeper and think a little more outside the box...

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

• Sunday, 1800 BST

You near enough know what you’re going to get with Pittsburgh, entering their 18th season under the stewardship of Mike Tomlin.

In each of the past 17 seasons, the Steelers have never finished up with a losing record. It’s a remarkable stat and one that will earn more than a mention at Tomlin’s inevitable Hall of Fame induction. However, it also needs to be noted that Pittsburgh’s last win in the postseason was on January 15... 2017.

Since Ben Roethlisberger left town, the make-up of the Steelers has been consistent: a strong, hard-hitting defence. A solid – if unspectacular – run game. Quarterback play that can get them by – but won’t win them games beyond week 18.

The '24 Steelers look set to follow suit. Pittsburgh are once again expected to be middle-of-the-road by most metrics and any pundits veering from that path are generally anticipating a slide, rather than a climb.

Atlanta are in a similar boat. Like the Steelers – who welcome Russell Wilson to the fold on Sunday – the Falcons have brought in a veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins in an effort to improve on last season’s efforts and lay the groundwork for the franchise’s future.

But that’s really where the aspirations end in terms of 2024. The Falcons have the luxury of a poor division, so their route to the playoffs is a fair bit easier. But a wildcard game would really be the high watermark for Atlanta.

I’m not exactly selling this one as a spectacle, but bear with me.

This is the kind of game that needs a spark to get the public interested. A player who can reach above the mediocrity and set the field alight by himself. Thankfully, this game has one. His name is BIJAN ROBINSON.

• CLICK HERE to back Robinson with Sky Bet

A rookie in a bad football team last season, the former Texas running back racked up 1,463 all-purpose yards along with eight touchdowns. It was the kind of rookie season fans were hoping for, and he delivered. The speed at which he has flown off fantasy draft boards in the past few weeks is testament to the impact he made and – crucially – the potential he showed.

This season, Robinson will have far greater quarterback play thanks to Cousins and with a year of experience now firmly tucked under his belt, we’re going to be hearing a lot about Bijan over the next four or five months.

When asked in the spring about his approach to Robinson this coming season, head coach Raheem Morris was pretty straightforward.

"Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations that you possibly can."

The week one value I mentioned at the top of this piece?

Robinson is 10/11 to score anytime. I don’t suspect that’s a price you’ll see very often this season, so my recommendation would be to take it while you can.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Sunday, 2105 BST

I’m not expecting the records of the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS and Las Vegas Raiders to be at the complete opposite ends of the spectrum when all’s said and done, but I find it very easy picking Justin Herbert over Gardner Minshew this week.

Like many NFL fans, I love Minshew as a character, but the ceiling on his quarterback play is low and the Raiders’ ceiling with him as starting quarterback isn’t dissimilar.

Herbert, on the other hand, is one of the finest passers of his generation and his collaboration with new head coach Jim Harbaugh draws obvious interest.

The reason why I’m siding with the better quarterback in this one is the points total. It’s an interesting one to say the least. This game is going to have one of the lowest match-point lines of the entire week.

I get it. There’s uncertainty around how both teams will fare with new coaching set-ups.

But, beyond that, it seems too low to me and I’m willing to even stretch it out a little.

For my pick in this game to land, the favoured team with the far superior quarterback will have to beat the Raiders by a field goal – at home – and the only caveat is we need 45 points to be scored.

In week 15 last season, these two sides faced off and 84 points were scored. Yes, there have been coaching and personnel changes since, but that would be some drop-off and with the price on offer, I think this is certainly worth a stab.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

• Sunday, 2125 BST

The DALLAS COWBOYS really don’t help themselves. Each January, they seem to actively lean into the ridicule and the memes as they limp out of the playoffs. The Packers dropped 48 points on them to trigger last year’s postseason exit and, a year before, a blown final-second play call was their ultimate undoing. An undignified ending.

Because playoff football is what ultimately counts – and therefore what people remember – the Cowboys are often dismissed as something of a joke. But they’re really not.

Since 2021, the Cowboys are 36-15 in the regular season. Only the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs can boast a better record.

This is a football team with a monkey on its back, but it’s still a damn fine football team with some of the better players in the NFL on its roster.

The Cowboys head to Cleveland as underdogs on Sunday and I like the value that provides. The Browns have a solid roster, but much of their success relies on the performance of Deshaun Watson – and that’s why expectations should be dampened a little.

Watson’s talent is undeniable, but the fact remains that he’s played just 12 games since January 2021.

He’s yet to justify his enormous price tag in Cleveland and, overall, the Browns are yet to prove themselves as a contender.

Dallas by contrast are proven winners in this kind of spot and they look to have the more rounded roster at this moment in time.

CEEDEE LAMB's salary situation being resolved is a massive bonus for Dallas and he’s expected to kick on after a massive 2023. The receiver racked up 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns over the course of the season, cementing his status as one of the NFL’s premier attacking threats.

Dak Prescott will look to find his primary talent often on Sunday – and throughout the season – particularly as there is less guarantee around the success of the Dallas running game this year.

Juicing Dallas’s price to win with a Lamb touchdown provides some really nice value.

Posted at 1625 BST on 06/09/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.