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NFL betting tips: Thanksgiving preview and best bets for Thursday November 28
Matt Temple-Marsh previews the three Thanksgiving NFL games, with Green Back and the Cowboys both fancied to give away starts.
NFL betting tips: Thursday Night
2pts Gibbs and Montgomery to both score a touchdown at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dallas Cowboys -5.5pts vs New York Giants at 11/10 (General)
1pt Green Bay Packers -6.5pts vs Miami Dolphins at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown & 72.5+ rushing yards at 2/1 (bet365)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: Friday, 0115 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Lions -10.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 48.5 @ 10/11
The Thanksgiving slate kicks off with the Lions hosting the Bears – and these two sides are polar opposites right now.
The Bears are on a five-game losing streak, with some nightmare endings thrown in too for good balance – a Hail Mary, a blocked field goal attempt, and then an overtime loss last time out.
For the Lions, they’re on fire with nine straight wins, and within this run we’ve seen some monsters – 47-9, 52-14, 52-6, 24-6. They’re the Super Bowl favourites, backed by the highest-scoring offence in the NFL, and the second ranked defence.
The 10.5 spread may seem high, but the Lions boast a huge 177 points differential, over 70 points more than any other team – coming in at over +16pts a game.
The Lions' bruising offence is what sets them apart, and it’s worth focusing on their running backs, DAVID MONTGOMERY and JAHMYR GIBBS – who are aptly nicknamed Sonic and Knuckles.
Montgomery and Gibbs boast a staggering 11 touchdowns each in just 11 games played. They now face the Bears defence, who have allowed the eight-most yards this season to running backs – and they just conceded a 106 yard and 1 TD performance to Aaron Jones.
The Lions will likely run up the score, and both running backs will be at the heart of it all. Back the Lions to add to the Bears misery, with the points.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
- Kick-off time: Friday, 0115 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Cowboys -4 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 39.0 @ 10/11
A game the NFL wishes they could flex out of the Thanksgiving Day window as Tommy DeVito faces Cooper Rush – yes, you read that correctly.
The Giants finally put to bed the Daniel Jones era after a five-game losing streak, and DeVito’s first game back saw them lose 30-7 to the Bucs. New York sit at 2-9 and are in serious contention for the number one overall pick in next year’s draft.
Meanwhile the COWBOYS are also in the midst of a lost season. QB Dak Prescott is done for the season after a hamstring injury, but they at least come into this match off the back of a shock win as 10.5 underdogs against the Commanders.
There were signs of improvement in that game for Dallas – Cooper Rush threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns, the running game showed promise with Dowdle scampering for 86 yards and their defence managed to keep Jayden Daniels in check for most of the game (although the late McLaurin TD was a concern).
Whilst this is a lost season for both sides, the Thanksgiving Game is special to Dallas. They’ve played on Thanksgiving since 1966, and statistically it’s the most viewed game of the season – owner Jerry Jones has an enormous amount of pride in his side, and talent wise (despite the quarterback) they still do have stars on this roster.
They managed to sack Daniels four times last week, while DeVito himself was sacked four times too. Their defence can carry them against the DeVito-led Giants, comfortably in the end.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Packers -3 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 47.5 @ 10/11
After one of the worst matchups the week has to offer, we finish on a corker – with Miami Dolphins travelling to face the GREEN BAY PACKERS.
Miami are back on track and with three straight wins in a row their playoff hopes are alive. They posted back-to-back 34-point outings on offence, with Tua and Achane clicking. But when you pop the hood, the stats aren’t kind to Miami.
Over the last two years the Dolphins have just one solitary win against teams with a record above .500. The combined record of the teams that Miami have beaten this season sits at just 15-42. They now face the Packers, who sit at 8-3, with temperatures expected to drop to minus six degrees Celsius. Tua is 0-7 in his career in games below four degrees Celsius.
Given the temperature and potential weather conditions, this is a game built for running backs – and JOSH JACOBS has come alive.
He’s averaged 96 rushing yards a game over his last five, on top of six touchdowns. His rushing line is set at just 72.5 yards and he faces a Miami defence who are allowing 89 rushing yards/game to RBs, on top of conceding the fifth most TDs to the position.
This is a plus spot for Jacobs in what could be a convincing enough win for the Packers.
Posted at 2130 GMT on 26/11/24
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