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NFL betting tips: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons preview, predictions and best bets
Matt Temple-Marsh is keen to back the Buccaneers when they travel to Georgia on Thursday night. Get his best bets for the latest live NFL action.
NFL betting tips: Buccaneers @ Falcons
2pts Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Under 43.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)
1pt Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Bijan Robinson under 66.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Buccaneers +1.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Under 43.5 @ 10/11
Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with two teams coming off strong wins. The TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS stunned many with a truly dominant 31-16 win against the Philadelphia Eagles which has them atop the NFC South. Baker Mayfield is silencing his critics, and the Bucs are rolling.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons rallied to a 26-24 comeback victory against the New Orleans Saints, thanks to another late, game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins, and a clutch kick from Younghoe Koo. But it has been far from smooth for the Falcons – their offence has been disappointing to say the least, especially given all their star talent and the arrival of QB Kirk Cousins.
The Falcons' passing offence ranks as 18th in the league, with just 206 passing yards/game. Both of their wins have come from fourth-quarter comebacks, with their offence stalling throughout the game otherwise. Bijan Robinson is struggling to get into gear, Kirk Cousins is still adjusting from his injury and tight end Kyle Pitts is still an absolute non-factor (zero catches last time out).
It’s their defence that has been keeping them in games, and they boast arguably the strongest secondary in the league, with Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates as a superb safety duo. This is the reason why I’d look to take the under in this game. The Falcons have so far averaged 40 points per game but their offence is lacking the spark to rack up points. And whilst the Bucs offence has shown firepower (33 points vs Eagles, 37 points vs Commanders), they stalled against stouter units in the Lions (20 points) and the Broncos (7 points).
Expect a similar outcome in a close affair with UNDER 43.5 POINTS looking a sound investment.
Focusing on the running backs – BUCKY IRVING is the hot name at the moment, and after Todd Bowles said we’d see more of Irving, he’s starting to deliver. Rashad White and Irving posted an identical box score (10 carries, 49 yards), but Bucky found the end zone. Irving now also leads the team in red zone carries, and has outpaced White 19-16 over the last two weeks for total carries.
Going by the eye test, it’s clear to see he’s the more productive rusher with more explosiveness – and more carries are coming his way. The Falcons have allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game this season (145/game) and Tampa would be wise to lean into Bucky here.
For the Falcons, BIJAN ROBINSON is struggling to live up to his pre-draft hype. Against the Eagles on Sunday he had just 7 carries for 28 yards, with teammate Tyler Allgeier pacing him for 8 carries for 60 yards. His last four games have seen:
- 7 carries, 28 rushing yards vs Saints
- 16 carries, 31 rushing yards vs Chiefs
- 14 carries, 97 rushing yards vs Eagles
- 18 carries, 68 rushing yards vs Steelers
He now faces the Bucs, and Vita Vea was a game wrecker last week for them. Bijan has faced the Bucs twice in his career – and in those two games he’s amassed just 11 carries for 37 rushing yards.
The Falcons feel like pretenders for now in the NFC South, with a stalling offence. It’s Tampa who are the high-flyers, with wins against the Eagles, Lions and Commanders – 3 of the best teams in the NFC.
This is going to be a gritty game between two division rivals, but I’m backing the Bucs to continue their great start to the season.
Verdict: Bucs 20-17 Falcons
Posted at 1640 BST on 01/10/24
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