NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LIX outright preview and best bets

NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LIX

4pts Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl 59 at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

4pts Indianapolis Colts to make the Playoffs at 6/4 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)

2pts New England Patriots lowest-scoring team at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

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No team has ever won the Super Bowl three times in a row.

The very idea of the ‘three-peat’ is unprecedented in the NFL. It even eluded Brady and Belichick’s Patriots, despite their dominance in the early 00s – and again a decade or so later.

To beat out 31 other teams in three straight seasons seems a near impossible task, but the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS are no ordinary football team and we're backing them to make history.

• CLICK HERE to back Kansas City Chiefs with Sky Bet

Despite the odds being stacked against them – and the fact they clearly have an enormous target on their backs – the case for the Chiefs is straightforward.

Simply put, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the National Football League at full health. At 75%, he’s probably still top five. He’s just that good. Assuming Mahomes avoids injury, he’s good enough to stroll his side into the Playoffs by himself, even if the rest of the roster aren’t at their peak during in the regular season, as was the case a year ago.

At tight end, the Chiefs boast a future first-ballot Hall of Famer (and perhaps the most famous man in the league) in Travis Kelce. He’s now 34 – so a dip is coming – but there’s no indication that it will be sudden or drastic following ten of the most consistently excellent seasons anyone has ever had at his position.

The running back room in Kansas City doesn’t feature an out-and-out superstar but it’s a useful committee, led by touchdown-magnet Isiah Pacheco and now bolstered with the additions of the veteran Samaje Perine and the rookie Carson Steele.

Since the departure of Tyreek Hill, Mahomes’ receiving options have reminded me of Brady’s bunch in New England: often a rag-tag group on short-term deals, but more than capable if the quarterback is good enough to find them – and Mahomes certainly is.

This year’s group is no different, with ‘Hollywood’ Marquise Brown, the returning Juju Smith-Schuster and Rashee Rice (a revelation of the 2023 season) all providing interesting passing options for their quarterback.

There are a couple of questions around how Kansas City will look defensively this season, mainly as L’Jarius Sneed is a tough player to replace at the cornerback position, but the unit is coached by one of the very best in Steve Spagnuolo and he has a history of answering doubts with silverware.

Add into the mix one of the finest coaches of the modern era in Andy Reid, and the undeniable home advantage that Arrowhead Stadium provides – particularly in the winter, Playoff months – and it’s not too difficult to see why Kansas City are favourites to win it all again.

It’s not the sexiest pick in the world, but quotes of 6/1 are too good to turn down, particularly when you view the state of the AFC West division.

The Chargers are likely to be the Chiefs’ biggest threat, but they will take some time to adapt to life under Jim Harbaugh and their outright price reflects that. LA are 50/1 shots to claim the Lombardi Trophy and the Broncos and Raiders are even further away from postseason prospects, with prices of 100/1 and 125/1 respectively.

Chances are, the Chiefs can reach the Playoffs as divisional champions at a canter and, from there, no one knows how to win in January and February better than Kansas City.

Dominance is dominance and until a team proves they can topple the reigning champions when push comes to shove, an historic three-peat is well on the cards, at a backable price.

Colts ready for Playoffs push

After a nine-win season under difficult circumstances in 2023, the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS are a very interesting proposition this year.

• CLICK HERE to back the Colts to make the Playoffs with Sky Bet

The Colts don’t have a perfect roster. They notably lack talent in the secondary and question marks remain over a couple of areas, but the talent they do possess is Playoffs-worthy.

Jonathan Taylor is one of the most dominant runners in the league and the Indianapolis receiver room contains genuine threats in Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and new rookie arrival Adonai Mitchell.

But it’s the trenches where the Colts could really shine this season. The offensive line – led by the monstrous Quenton Nelson – looks as strong as it has in quite some time and on the other side of the ball, Indianapolis are poised to unleash a defensive front that could rival any in the league.

DeForest Buckner is one of the most consistent defensive tackles in the NFL, averaging over eight sacks a season as a Colt, and he’s surrounded by some serious pass-rush talent. Kwity Paye hit his stride in 2023 with his best season to date and he will now be joined by Laiatu Latu.

The Colts could barely believe their luck when the outstanding UCLA edge-rusher was on the board after 14 picks of the recent NFL Draft. He was the premier rush defender in college football last season, leading the nation in tackles for loss per game, while accumulating 13 quarterback sacks in 12 games.

Latu has all the attributes to be a top-tier defender in the NFL and if he adapts early (and the signs in preseason were good) he’s a solid early shout for defensive rookie of the year honours.

All told, the Colts should be able to get to the quarterback plenty this season and provide their offence with a reasonable target to hit.

Then, it’s up to the man Indianapolis have at the quarterback position to get them over the line.

Anthony Richardson is billed as one of the great unknowns heading into this season. Sadly, his rookie season lasted just four games before he went down with a year-ending injury, so the NFL case study on the former Florida quarterback is a small one. However, the signs were undeniably positive.

He wasn’t perfect – no rookie quarterback ever is – but in those four games, Richardson threw three touchdowns, racked up over 700 all-purpose yards, and rushed for four further scores.

The 2023 Colts went on with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and still managed to win nine games and fall just one victory short of the Playoffs. Had Richardson been a little more fortunate and avoided the injury that saw him on the bench for the remainder of that run, there’s a strong belief that Indianapolis would have picked up the wins required for a postseason berth.

With Richardson now back, talent added on both sides of the ball and Shane Steichen settled and heading into his second season as Colts head coach, a price of 6/4 for Indianapolis to return to postseason football is rock solid.

Points at a premium for Patriots

I will justify my third and final ‘futures’ pick for the upcoming season, but it’s one that really doesn’t require too much consideration.

The NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS look set to have the 32nd-ranked offence in the NFL this season and they’re 5/1 to score the fewest points in the league over the course of the 17 games.

• CLICK HERE to back Patriots lowest-scoring team with Sky Bet

Based on 2023 regular-season records, the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the league, with the likes of San Francisco and Houston padding out an already stacked fixture list, complete with six games against their AFC East divisional rivals who are all expecting Playoff berths.

With the Belichick era over, it’s Jerod Mayo at the helm in 2024. A linebacker himself in his playing days, Mayo is unapologetically defensive-minded and his focus this season will be keeping opposition scores down, rather than running up the touchdowns with the ball in hand.

Alex Van Pelt is expected to call plays on offence, which is also of some concern as he wasn’t the designated play-caller in Cleveland when he was the Browns’ offensive coordinator.

The Patriots drafted quarterback Drake Maye this spring, but it’ll be Jacoby Brissett suiting up to start at quarterback in week one.

Brissett’s one of the more dependable back-ups in the league, but he doesn’t light up scoreboards and in reality, he is simply a stop-gap until Maye is ready to take over the mantle, perhaps 12 months from now.

To put it mildly, things aren’t going to be fluid on the offensive side of the ball in New England.

The Patriots were joint-worst in scoring last season – averaging just 13.9 points per game – and with no new gamebreakers to speak of, a brand new coaching setup (following the greatest of all time, no less) and a starting quarterback who is little more than competent at this point in his career, 2024 will be tough sledding for the Patriots.

Posted at 1700 BST on 01/09/24

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