New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Patriots +6.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Under 37.5 @ 10/11
Week 3 kicks off with the Patriots travelling to New York to face their AFC East division rival, the Jets. Weeks 1 and 2 gave us stellar matchups whereas this week’s affair is looking to be one of the more lacklustre fixtures of the season – but there’s plenty of value to be found.
The Patriots have proved that they’re a competent, well coached team – when many expected them to be one of the worst in the league. Their stout defence held Joe Burrow to just 10 points, and then managed to stay in the game all the way to the very end with the Seahawks, losing in overtime.
New England’s plan for now (when will we see Drake Maye?) is to play smart, sensible, mistake-free football. They aim to dominate the field position, win the turnover battle, and ultimately allow Jerod Mayo’s defence to try to win the game. Plus, they can run the ball – through two games they’re averaging 177.5 rushing yards, ranking as the fourth best in the NFL. They’ve found their identity.
The Jets managed to bounce back after their week 1 hammering against the 9ers with a 24-17 win against the Titans. But things still aren’t clicking for them – their offence is far from flashy. In this game Rodgers threw for just 176 yards, Wilson caught four passes for 57 yards, and Hall carried the rock 14 times for just 62 yards. The offence isn’t shaping up to be the juggernaut many expected – and they were massively helped by tragic mistakes from Will Levis.
That being said, the Patriots offence is just as sleepy. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has thrown for a measly 260 yards so far and has just 11 completions to his WRs for 85 yards. The running game is sound, but passing attack is lacking.
One bright spot is tight end HUNTER HENRY. He’s shaping up to be the focal point for the Patriots air attack – and proved just that against the Seahawks. He saw a team high 12 targets, catching eight passes for 127 yards, and crucially converted seven first downs.
He clearly has the trust of Brissett – and has twice as many receptions as any of his teammates. The Jets have allowed the 11th most catches in the league to tight ends, too. This is a plus spot for Henry.
We can expect the Patriots to lean into their ground and pound attack to eat the clock, while their defence tries to nullify the struggling Jets offence. The UNDER has hit in seven of the last eight matchups between these two sides in New York and based on the current offensive output there’s no reason to see that trend changing.
Amazingly, the Patriots are 18-2 against the Jets in their last 20 games – and whilst a win outright may be too bullish to predict, giving the PATRIOTS 6.5 POINTS is too many in what will be a low-scoring affair.
Verdict: Jets 20-17 Patriots
Posted at 1640 BST on 17/09/24
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