Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Lions -3.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 51.5 @ 10/11
Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with the Green Bay Packers travelling to their NFC North division rivals, the Detroit Lions.
This promises to be an offensive masterclass, with the number two- and three-ranked offences (in yards per game) in the league squaring off. The Lions are averaging a league-high 31.9 points per game, while the Packers come in at 26.5 points. And although Green Bay has a dominating lead in this rivalry, the Lions have had the upper hand as of late – winning four of the last five encounters.
Detroit is on fire, having won 10 games straight – sitting at an incredible 11-1 record. The Packers are on a roll themselves with seven wins in their last eight, but that one loss came against the Lions. Detroit dominated the game, too, boasting a 24-6 lead until the fourth quarter, where Green Bay cut it to a more respectable 24-14.
The Lions are favoured by just over a field goal, but the bet I prefer is the over. While it didn’t hit last time out, that game was played in Green Bay – this time round we're at Ford Field and, crucially, indoors. At home the Lions are averaging a huge 35.2 points per game while Packers have scored 68 points over their last two games, and they face a depleted Lions side. Injuries have been ravaging their defence and they are now without multiple key starters, so take the points in what shapes to be a shootout.
For player specific bets, the Lions' secondary is one to target. They are allowing more yards per game to wide receivers than any other team in the league, alongside the most catches to the position.
Naturally, game script has played a part in this, with the Lions having such commanding leads that opposing teams are forced to throw, but it’s still a concern.
The Packers almost employ a wide receiver by committee approach, but JAYDEN REED edges out as the main man with the highest target share on the Packers. He’s had a quiet few weeks, but last time against Detroit he hauled in five catches for a huge 113 yards. Tucker Kraft has been a reliable option for Jordan Love, but Detroit has the number one defence in the league vs TEs.
Back Reed in a plus spot.
The Packers defence shows no obvious weakness but they are susceptible to receiving backs. They have allowed the fifth most receiving yards to RBs this year – an average of over 40 yards per game. Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging an impressive 10 yards per reception and while his line is not yet out at the time of writing, it should come in at around the 20-yard mark – a line which he can surpass with ease.
Posted at 1715 GMT on 03/12/24
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