Denver Broncos welcome New Orleans Saints in Thursday's NFL clash – check out Matt Temple-Marsh's preview and best bets here.
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Denver Broncos -2.5 at 10/11
- Total: Over 37.0 at 10/11
Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Denver Broncos.
The Saints started the season on fire with two blowout wins where they scored 40+ points in both games – but they’ve come crashing down to earth since with four straight losses.
Injuries have played a huge part in this – their starting offence now boasts only their LT, RT, TE, RB (Alvin Kamara who is heavily banged up) and their FB who started in Week One – they are fielding backups in all other positions.
Most notably, Derek Carr is out with an oblique injury, with rookie Spencer Rattler filling in. Rattler started well, but the Buccaneers blitzed over and over against their depleted offensive line, leading to five sacks and a 51-27 victory.
For the Broncos, they picked up after a 0-2 start to race out to 3-2, but reality set in with a poor 23-16 loss to their division rivals Chargers.
The biggest question mark for Denver is rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He started extremely slowly against the Chargers – in the first half he completed 3/10 passes for 22 yards and an interception, but in the second half (deep into garbage time), he completed 16/23 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns.
Statistically he ranks as one of the worst QBs in the league – he’s dead bottom for EPA (expected points added) per play at -0.3, and his completion percentage above expected ranks dead last out of qualifying starters.
It clearly takes time for Nix to warm into games – the Broncos have scored 0 points in their last 3 games in the first quarter, and all of Nix’s passing touchdowns have come in the second half this year.
These two defences couldn’t be more opposite – no team is conceding more yards per game than the New Orleans Saints (395.8 yards/game), while the Broncos rank as the fourth best, with just 284.3 yards/game.
Specifically, the Saints are glaringly weak to WRs – having conceded 1,024 to the position, fifth most in the league.
Courtland Sutton is the top target for Denver – he’s seen 47 targets so far, ranking as the top option for Denver with a 24% target share. This is a plus spot for Sutton – look for him to take advantage.
One Saints player to keep an eye on is rookie WR Bub Means. He ran the second most routes and played the second most snaps at WR for the Saints, seeing a healthy 21% target share – alongside scoring his first ever touchdown.
Typically, rookie QBs and receivers develop a relationship together, spending extended time together throughout training camps and practice sessions – these two are clearly on the same page, and Means may be more involved than most recognise.
Simply put, the Saints are dealing with too many injuries, and coming off a short week this feels a challenge too much – against a stingy Denver defence. The misery rolls on for New Orleans after such a promising start.
Verdict: Broncos 24-17 Saints
Posted at 1215 BST on 16/10/24
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