NFL betting tips: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins preview, predictions and best bets

NFL betting tips: Bills @ Dolphins

3pts Buffalo Bills to win at 11/10 (General)

2pt Josh Allen anytime touchdown at 10/11 (BoyleSports, Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt De’Von Achane anytime touchdown at 11/10 (bet365)

1pt Greg Rousseau 1+ sack at 20/23 (bet365)

1pt Buffalo Bills -6.5pts on the spread at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

• Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 BST
• TV: Sky Sports Main Event
• Spread: Bills +2.0 @ 10/11
• Total: Over 49.0 @ 10/11

Both the BUFFALO BILLS and Miami Dolphins opened the season with wins, but they were far from the dominating wins we would have expected from these AFC juggernauts. The Bills found themselves 17-10 down at half-time, while the Dolphins were 17-7 down at the break.

All the talk for the Bills in the offseason was around change at wide receiver and defence, but their one constant remained in the shape of JOSH ALLEN – and he’s still at his very best.

• CLICK HERE to back Allen for a touchdown with Sky Bet

The Bills took over, outscoring the Cardinals 28-3 from the end of the first half through to half-way through the fourth quarter. The defence shored up as well – the only TD they conceded in the second half was the first ever dynamic kick off touchdown.

Allen meanwhile capped off his four-touchdown performance with an airborne rushing score to seal the victory.

Plus, you can bet that Allen is ready for this matchup – he boasts a 10-2 record against Miami, posting 33 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and five rushing touchdowns. He’s won the last three matchups, with 10 TDs and just two picks. Allen truly takes the game into his own hands and his threat as a rusher is near unmatched in the NFL – he’s scored 13 rushing touchdowns in his last nine games.

Back him to find the end zone again come Thursday night.

For the Dolphins, their electric offence looked in need of a jump start. Last season they kicked off their first three games averaging a huge 43 points per game – yet all they could muster on Sunday was just two touchdowns. Their defence came to the rescue with a flurry of huge defensive plays – back-to-back sacks on Trevor Lawrence and a forced fumble on Etienne that ultimately swung the game.

Miami’s offensive line could be cause for concern – they conceded three sacks, allowed eight tackles for loss and their running game just could not get into gear. DE'VON ACHANE carried the rock 10 times for 24 yards, alongside Mostert’s measly nine yards from six carries.

Buffalo’s edge rusher GREG ROUSSEAU must be licking his lips at this matchup in what could be a true breakout year for the former first rounder. On Sunday he had the game of his career, with three sacks, three tackles for loss, six quarterback pressures and one forced fumble. Expect Rousseau to be a game-wrecker in Week 2.

For all Achane’s woes – a poor 2.4 yards per carry – there are positives to take from the performance. He saw 43.5% of Miami’s running back carries, and a huge 19.4% target share – the second highest of his career – and he still managed to find the end zone.

The Bills conceded 124 rushing yards to the Cardinals with notable chunk plays to James Conner and Kyler Murray running free. Achane’s speed could punish them and he's a bet for a touchdown, too.

To call this matchup a rivalry in the Josh Allen era is kind. He dominates the Dolphins (10-2 record), and there’s no reason to doubt him again. The Dolphins looked uncharacteristically rusty in Week 1, whereas the Bills truly kicked into gear, and look like a true AFC contender.

It’s a shock to see Miami favoured – back the Bills to win outright and top up with a smaller bet on the 6.5-point spread.

CLICK HERE to back Bills -6.5 with Sky Bet

Verdict: Bills 31-24 Dolphins

Posted at 1100 BST on 11/09/24

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