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NFL betting tips: Best touchdown scorers and best bets for Week 9
With a range of winners so far, Matt Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 9
1pt Pat Freiermuth to score anytime in Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers at 18/5 (Unibet)
1pt Boston Scott to score anytime in LA Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Mike Gesicki to score anytime in Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins at 7/4 (General)
LA Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Boston Scott to score anytime at 2/1 (bet365)
The Chargers have the third worst run defence in the league, surrendering over 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns to the position through just seven games. They’re solid through the air, but porous to running backs.
Enter: Boston Scott.
Scott is filling in for the injured Miles Sanders, and the committee approach may worry some here, with Jordan Howard & Kenneth Gainwell seeing snaps. Scott took the important first half-snaps (and scored a brace), before the game entered garbage time with the Eagles comfortably ahead – then the other backs saw the field.
Scott will be the lead RB for the Eagles – he ran the ball the best against the Lions, and he’s seen five goal-to-go carries over the past two weeks, showing the trust the Eagles have in him.
This is a great price for such a positive match-up.
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- When: Tuesday at 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Best bet: Pat Freiermuth to score anytime @ 11/4 with Bet 365
Pat Freiermuth is coming off two very strong games, where he saw an 18% target share, then a 20% target share. He found the end-zone against the Browns, and I love his chances on Monday night.
The Bears are a tough opponent, but the tight end is seeing more opportunities thanks to injuries. Juju is out for the season, and since his injury he’s seen a spike in targets.
Last week (when he scored), fellow TE Eric Ebron was out – and he’s missed the first practice session this week. Ebron will likely miss Monday, allowing Pat to see even more volume once more.
This is a plus play at a big price.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Tyler Conklin to score anytime at 4/1 (bet365)
Baltimore is statistically the best match-up for tight ends, they’re allowing more yards & touchdowns per game to the position than any other team.
Tyler Conklin is averaging a 14% target share on the season, and he’s fresh off a game where he saw a 21% share – which was the second highest for the Vikings.
This game has an over/under of 50 points, so we can expect touchdowns from both teams. He’s growing more chemistry with Kirk Cousins every week, and this is a great opportunity for him to score his second touchdown on the year.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Mike Gesicki to score anytime at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
The Texans have surrendered a touchdown to a tight end in five of their last six games.
Mike Gesicki has been one of the bright sparks for the Dolphins, and he’s seen nearly a 20% target share on the season.
He’s had a red zone target in his last three games – I love his chances to find the end zone this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Jamal Agnew to score anytime at 13/2 (bet365)
This is a huge price for Jamal Agnew.
Since DJ Chark went down with injury, Agnew has led the team in targets. He’s shown serious potential as a returner, and now that’s translating to the offence. Last week he saw 12 targets, as he scored his first receiving TD of the season.
Yes, this match-up against the Bills is far from ideal, but there is hope. Agnew is very much a slot receiver (playing >75% of his snaps from the slot), and the Bills have allowed the third most receptions in the league to slot receivers.
We’ll be hoping for some garbage time points to help get this bet over the line – but the price is huge for a player seeing this many targets. Plus there’s always a chance for a kick-off/punt return TD too.
Odds correct at 1245 GMT (06/11/21)
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