With a range of winners so far, Matt Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 6
1pt Ricky Seals-Jones to score anytime in Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Khalil Herbert to score anytime in Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown in Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots at 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 14:30 BST
- TV: BBC Two
- Best bet: Myles Gaskin to score anytime at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are awful. They’re 0-4 on the season, head coach is Urban Meyer is firmly on the hot-seat, and a trip to London is the last thing they need.
They have allowed more touchdowns to running backs than any other team, and Gaskin is fresh off a game where he put up CMC numbers. The RB scored twice from five carries and ten receptions (99 yards total). He had three touches with just goal-to-go, showing the team trust him in scoring situations. This is a plus-match up.
Expect Gaskin to shine in London.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Ricky Seals-Jones to score anytime at 10/3 (bet365)
Ricky Seals-Jones has come in to replace the injured Logan Thomas, and he’s already making a positive impact.
Last week he saw nine targets, hauling in five for 41 yards. Importantly, he saw four of those targets in the red zone, and three of them with just goal-to-go. He ran 42 routes last Sunday against the Saints – just one less than Terry McLaurin.
The Chiefs defence can’t stop anybody right now – they’re conceding over seven yards per play, and have a porous defence to tight ends – they’ve allowed more yards to the position than any team in the league!
This is a huge price for Seals-Jones, I love this pick.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Khalil Herbert to score anytime at 11/4 (bet365)
Lead running back David Montgomery has been placed on IR, and back-up Damien Williams has just been placed on the Reserve/Covid-19 list.
This puts rookie Khalil Herbert front and centre, who will now see a starting role against the Packers. Herbert is no slouch - he totalled 3,212 total scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns in his college career – and even with Williams healthy last week Herbert carried the ball 18 times, two more than the RB2. The rookie had three rezone touches, and one with goal-to-go.
He faces a Packers side who have allowed six TDs to RBs this season, and they just conceded TDs from both Mixon & Perine in their most recent game.
You’re getting a back-up price for a starting RB here, we can expect that price to be much shorter by kick-off.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Kadarius Toney to score anytime at 15/4 (bet365)
The Giants have struck gold once more at WR – Toney is a beast. Last week he stepped up for an injury hit Giants as he caught ten passes for a huge 189 yards, and he came agonizingly close to scoring his first career touchdown.
Kenny Golladay is expected to miss this game, whilst Slayton & Shepard are both still struggling with injury.
The Rams have the 12th worst defence in the league to WRs – having conceded 900 yards and 4 TDs to the position. This team is lacking juice at any other skill positions – they need to put the ball in Toney’s hands.
This price his huge, expect Toney to score his first career TD.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
- When: Sunday @ 21:25 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown at 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Over the last three weeks, Dalton Schultz has seen the biggest target share out of all tight ends in the NFL – over 25%!
He’s led the Cowboys in targets over that span, and scored three touchdowns. I spoke about Shultz last week and he was unlucky to score – having been targeted in the end zone. He is quickly becoming Dak’s favourite target, in a truly electric offence.
This price is far too big for a player who is consistently seeing 25% of Dak’s targets.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (15/10/21)
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