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NFL betting tips: Best touchdown scorers and best bets for Week 4
With a 13/5 winner last week, Matthew Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
1pt Dawson Knox to score anytime in Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills at 7/2 (William Hill)
1pt Dionte Johnson to score anytime in Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers at 15/8 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Kyler Murray & Cooper Kupp to both score a touchdown in Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams at 3.12/1 (Paddy Power)
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Dawson Knox to score anytime at 7/2
This Bills offence is electric – they’ve scored 78 points over the last two weeks, and Dawson Knox is huge value in this game.
The tight end is breaking out and being used as a pass catcher in this offence. Over the last two weeks he’s ran more routes than WR2 Cole Beasley, and just five fewer than Stefon Diggs last week.
He’s had red zone targets in his last two games, including a touchdown against Washington – and faces a poor Texans D on Sunday.
The Texans have allowed 21 receptions to TEs on the season (joint second most in the league), resulting in 230 yards and a touchdown to the position. Bear in mind they have faced the Jags, Browns & Panthers – teams with little talent at TE.
There may be a worry that game script will play against Knox, but the Bills kept their foot on the gas against both the Dolphins & WFT all game long – he’s value to go for six.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Nick Westbrook-Ihkine to score anytime at 5/2
Checking the injury report will be crucial to this selection.
Both AJ Brown & Julio Jones have missed two practice sessions this week, leaving a depleted WR room – enter Westbrook-Ihkine. The WR stepped up in week three when AJ Brown left early, with four catches for 53 yards and a score.
Chester Rodgers may have better numbers on the season, but last week it was Westbrook-Ihkine who ran more routes. The WR possesses size – 6ft3in & 215lbs, and faces a laughable New York Jets side.
There’s a worry then Henry bulldozes his way to 300 yards & four touchdowns, but Nick could be great value.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
- When: Sunday at 21:05 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Kyler Murray & Cooper Kupp to both score a touchdown at 3.12/1
Through three weeks Kyler Murray has three rushing touchdowns – he’s scored in every single game. His rushing ability is level with Lamar Jackson, and he’s penning the first chapter of his MVP season.
This game has an implied points total of 55, and on paper looks to be a shoot-out. The Rams’ defence has conceded two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the season (second most in the league). Kyler will need to utilise his mobility in this game.
I spoke about Cooper Kupp last week, and I’d be foolish not to again. He’s posting record breaking numbers through the first week of the season – his connection with Matthew Stafford is perfect.
Against the Bucs, Kupp hauled in nine of 12 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals secondary has conceded five TDs to WRs this season (joint third most in the league).
Kupp can’t be stopped right now.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers
- When: Sunday at 21:25 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Dionte Johnson to score anytime at 15/8
Dionte Johnson was absent in the Steelers’ week three loss to the Bengals, but he’s now back at full health. Through weeks one & two Johnson saw a huge 30% target share, with ten targets in week one and 12 in week two.
The Steelers WR room is banged up – Chase Claypool was added to the injury report with a hamstring issue, whilst Juju Smith-Schuster was a limited participant at practice with bruised ribs.
TJ Watt is back to full health, so the Steelers will be far from a pushover, and they face a Packers secondary who have allowed the joint fourth most touchdowns to WRs this season.
Johnson could see north of 15 targets this game, the opportunity will be there to score.
Odds correct as of 2055 BST on 01/10/21
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