Ross Williams looks ahead to Sunday, picking out four best bets from an interesting slate of NFL match-ups.
NFL betting tips: Week 9
2pts Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns at 10/11 (General)
2pts New England Patriots (-3.5) to beat the Carolina Panthers at 10/11 (William Hill)
2pts Arizona Cardinals to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 5/4 (General)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix
The Chargers have a 4-3 record as they head into week nine, but I’m firm in my belief that they are a better football team than their record suggests.
The three losses have been at the hands of the Cowboys, the Ravens and most recently the Patriots, and there’s little shame in any of those. Each of those three teams are highly proficient on the ground, which is clearly the Achilles heel of the Chargers defence.
Back-to-back defeats have been disappointing for Los Angeles, but a Sunday trip to Philadelphia could be the perfect antidote to a poor recent run.
The Eagles did finally get the running game going last week, picking up 236 yards on the ground, and it’s no secret that the key to beating the Chargers is punishing their league-worst run defence. However, that performance was something of an anomaly for the Eagles, and it’s no coincidence that it came against a Detroit Lions team that can stop nothing at the moment.
Generally this season, Philadelphia have been reluctant to rely on a conventional run game and if they stick to that script on Sunday, I fancy the Chargers to get back on track.
The Eagles have a middling defence generally, but Justin Herbert will be a dangerous proposition against a secondary that allows the highest completion percentage (74.3%) in the NFL. Philadelphia are not great at disrupting the pass game and, if LA’s second-year quarterback gets off to a quick start at the weekend, they should find it very difficult to peg back the Chargers.
In a shootout between Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, there’s only one winner.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at 10/11
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix
Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray is carrying a knock and is trending to be a game-time decision as we head into this game, but I still like his team’s chances in this NFC West match-up, regardless of his designation.
Arizona undoubtedly suffered a blow last Thursday when they fell to the Green Bay Packers, but it was still only their first defeat of the year. Had A.J. Green been looking in the right direction when Murray sailed a ball his way with 30 seconds on the clock, we would now be discussing an undefeated 8-0 football team with a real chance of playing out a perfect season.
Alas, it wasn’t to be, but if anything that defeat is only likely to galvanise the Cardinals further as they head to Santa Clara on Sunday evening.
The Niners were victors in week eight, but it’s up for debate how impressive an eight-point win over the Chicago Bears really is. Before that, San Francisco gave up four straight losses, including one to their opponents this weekend.
Aside from Deebo Samuel, the 49ers have been largely disappointing this season and I think this could be the game that effectively ends their hopes for a successful season early.
If Murray is out and Colt McCoy steps in at quarterback for the Cardinals, things obviously get tougher for the visitors and it would be wise to at least consider the insurance of the handicap, but an Arizona win is still far from off the table. Of the backups in the NFL, McCoy is up there with the most experienced and his play in the league – albeit limited – has not been without merit.
McCoy has a positive touchdown-interception ratio of 30:28 and at the age of 35, he knows his role and what it takes to grind out wins. Backup quarterbacks don’t stay in the league for eleven years unless they have that level of savvy.
His role will be to facilitate James Connor and Chase Edmonds in the ground game – an area where the Cardinals excel and the 49ers defence struggles. In this scenario, it will be tough sledding for the Cardinals running back duo, but they do have the ability to pile the points on a San Francisco defence that is the seventh-worst in the NFL.
If Murray does play on Sunday, which is a very real possibility despite the ever-sliding handicap mark, consider the price of a Cardinals victory right now a gift. His head coach has made it very clear that the quarterback wants to play and, even at 90%, the MVP candidate has all the tools to give San Francisco another torrid night on their home field.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 5/4
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Cleveland were my early Super Bowl pick before the start of the season, but I know a struggling team when I see one.
The Browns have lost three of their last four games, and the divisional defeat to Pittsburgh last weekend felt like a gut punch, at a time when the franchise really needed a confidence boost.
Now, heading into week nine, Cleveland are facing a crucial battle in Ohio where defeat is out of the question, and they’ve had the worst possible build-up. On Friday, the team finally agreed to the release of Odell Beckham Jr. after an uncomfortable few days which suggested a divide in the Browns’ camp, with the performances of quarterback Baker Mayfield at the centre of the conversation.
It’s a terrible scenario for Cleveland, and one the Cincinnati Bengals will be looking to make the most of.
Cincy were stunned by the Mike White-led New York Jets last week but I do believe the loss was an outlier, unlikely to be repeated.
The Bengals will be eager to make amends and they actually match up pretty well against their division rivals. They have a top-five run defence which has the ability to stifle Cleveland’s reliable run game, and that will put far too much pressure on Mayfield, leading to a probable collapse.
Plus, Cincinnati’s passing game – spearheaded by Joe Burrow and his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase – has been on fire as of late and I don’t believe the Browns’ secondary has what it takes to slow them down. They don’t give up a tonne of yardage (220 receiving yards per game) but Cleveland have had a hard time keeping receivers out of the end zone this season. 944048917
Through eight weeks, they’ve conceded 17 passing touchdowns – a frightening statistic that will have Burrow salivating after back-to-back three-touchdown performances over Cleveland last season.
The Bengals loss last week is in our favour here as it’s kept the handicap below the field goal threshold. I fancy Cincinnati to cover by at least a score.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns at 10/11
New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix
It took a little while, but the 2021 Patriots are rolling.
They found a way to beat a more talented Chargers outfit last weekend in typical Bill Belichick style and, against the Panthers this Sunday, things should be even simpler.
With Sam Darnold out, Carolina will be relying on P.J. Walker to guide them around the field and with all due respect to the former XFL passer, it’s already advantage New England.
The Patriots have stumbled upon a simple yet effective formula this season, getting the best out of both Damien Harris and their rookie quarterback Mac Jones. You don’t necessarily trust New England to win every shootout, but they should get the better of all the teams in the lower third of the league, simply by grinding them down with the run game and picking away at their secondary via the accuracy of Jones.
Carolina did pull out a victory last week, off the back of a strong ground performance, but the Patriots defence is far more effective than that of the Falcons and with Darnold on the shelf, the Panthers won’t win this game on the strength of Chuba Hubbard’s rushing alone.
Only an out-of-the-blue passing display from Walker will tip the scales in favour of the Panthers, but with that likelihood being slim and the handicap sitting at an enticing 3.5 points, I’ll trust the Patriots to get this one done with relative ease.
Best Bet: New England Patriots (-3.5) to beat the Carolina Panthers at 10/11
Odds correct as of 1200 on 06/11/21
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