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NFL betting tips: Best bets, predictions and picks for Week 6
After a near-clean sweep in week five, scuppered only by an unfortunate Saquon Barkley injury, resident NFL tipster Ross Williams returns to build on a profitable start to the 2021 season.
NFL betting tips: Week 6
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11 (William Hill)
2pts Dallas Cowboys (-3) to beat the New England Patriots at 20/23 (William Hill)
1pt Arizona Cardinals to beat the Cleveland Browns at 13/8 (SBK)
1pt Brandin Cooks (Texans) & Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) 80+ receiving yards each at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
On and off the field, the Football Team are a mess.
A defence tipped in the preseason to be one of the league’s best is currently performing as the second-worst through five weeks of the season, and the offence – although better than their counterparts on the other side of the ball – are severely limited with Taylor Heinicke at the helm.
Add in the massive story unfurling around the NFL’s investigation into the franchise’s murky past and you have a recipe for disaster, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs coming to town. A bad week for Washington may well be about to get even worse.
Kansas City have certainly not been at their magnificent best so far this season, but there’s nothing scarier than a wounded animal. Despite their current standing at the foot of a competitive AFC West, the Chiefs are still averaging over 30 points per game and their firepower should be simply too much for Washington to handle.
This looks an ideal bounce-back game for Andy Reid’s outfit after a humbling primetime defeat to the Bills, and I expect Mahomes and co. to put their week six opponents to the sword with relative ease.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The value just isn’t there in relation to the scoreline in this game. The Colts should win in theory, but with a 1-4 record they’re hard to confidently back with the ten-point start they’re giving the Texans.
Houston are a poor football team, but they have turned up in a couple of this season’s games, including their narrow loss to the Patriots last Sunday. However, they’re also too inconsistent to get behind, even with the head-start.
Therefore, I’m open to trying something a little more unorthodox in this game as I don’t believe it’s a total stay-away.
Both defences reside in the bottom half of the league in terms of passing yards allowed, and I think that creates an opportunity for two of the more talented players on the field on Sunday.
Plus, both Davis Mills of the Texans and Indianapolis quarterback Carson Wentz are coming off season-high yardage games in week five, throwing for over 300 and 400 yards respectively.
Houston receiver Brandin Cooks has two 100-yard games to his credit already this season and the explosive pass-catcher could have his way against a sloppy Colts secondary that capitulated against the deep ball on Monday night. Chances are, if Mills can find Cooks at least five times on Sunday, he should be able to crack the 80-yard threshold.
Meanwhile, Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off a great game against the Ravens. The former USC wide-out caught seven passes for 89 yards and a touchdown against a defence far superior to what the Texans will be able to serve up this weekend.
Colts’ veteran T.Y. Hilton may also be involved for the first time this season, and that should only improve Pittman’s chances of a big day. The Houston defence being forced to deal with Hilton too should leave plenty of single-coverage opportunities for Pittman and Wentz to exploit.
Best Bet: Brandin Cooks (Texans) & Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) 80+ receiving yards each at 9/2
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
- When: Sunday at 21:05 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Ride the hot hand.
The fairytale is alive in Arizona, with the Cardinals still undefeated through five weeks of the season, but how long can they remain perfect?
My guess is at least one more week.
This weekend’s slate of games presents one of Arizona’s toughest assignments so far as they travel to Ohio on Sunday evening, but I fancy the Cards to pull off a huge cross-conference win against one of the better teams in the AFC.
Arizona are underdogs in the game, but I’m not allowing that to put me off.
Kyler Murray is well-fancied for MVP honours at the end of the season and the rest of his offence has been similarly impressive, with the likes of rookie Rondale Moore and former All-Pro A.J. Green standing out.
The defence has also stood up to the tasks in front of them admirably, conceding less than 20 points per game on average, despite a tough schedule featuring divisional rivals San Francisco and the early front-running Los Angeles Rams.
Despite defeat last week, the Cleveland Browns are favoured due to the manner in which they fell to the Chargers. The Browns put up 42 points in vain, breaking all kinds of records and essentially producing the greatest offensive effort ever recorded in a regular-season loss.
It was mighty impressive, but it doesn’t make me agree with their three-point favouritism over the unbeaten Cards. A game of that magnitude will have undoubtedly emptied the reserves of the Browns’ starting unit – if only temporarily – and there’s also the elephant in the room.
It’s easy to be full of praise for the Browns’ offence, but questions have to be asked of a usually-dominant defence that shipped 47 points and ultimately lost Cleveland the game.
Although there’s no real shame in falling to Justin Herbert and his excellent Chargers’ teammates, the Browns are facing opposition with just as much explosion this weekend and, if they can’t fix up their weaknesses, Kyler Murray can exploit them in even more ways than Herbert.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals to beat the Cleveland Browns at 13/8
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
- When: Sunday at 21:25 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
I’m not going to overthink this one. The Cowboys are simply a better football team than the Patriots in almost every facet of the game.
The Dallas defence is cooking, thanks to the play of young talents Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs, and offensively the Cowboys are finally beginning to realise their massive potential.
Bill Belichick is the game’s greatest ever coach for a reason and he’s a master at taking his opponent’s weapons out of the discussion. However, he can’t take them all.
If he focuses on stopping the run, Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb could run riot catching passes from Dak Prescott. If Bill takes away the passing game, Zeke Elliott looks back to something like his best on the ground, while supported up by an ever-improving Tony Pollard.
Ultimately this is a game between the 26th-ranked offence in the NFL and the second-best, with the latter averaging a massive 34 points per game.
The Cowboys cover the spread, and could do so handsomely in a win that will make a major statement.
Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys (-3) to beat the New England Patriots at 10/11
Odds correct at 1530 BST (15/10/21)
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