Resident tipster Ross Williams checks out Sunday’s big NFL match-ups and throws a big-priced punt into his weekly best bets.
NFL betting tips: Week 5
2pts Tennessee Titans (-4.0) to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at 10/11 (General)
2pts Detroit Lions (+10) to beat the Minnesota Vikings at 10/11 (General)
2pts Damien Harris (Patriots) to score a touchdown at Evens (Paddy Power/Betfair)
1pt Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) & Saquon Barkley (Giants) 1+ rushing touchdown each at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, just four games into his NFL career, committed the cardinal sin of becoming a major distraction to his franchise this week, and on Sunday I anticipate the former Ohio State and Florida boss will face his punishment.
After failing to leave Ohio with the rest of the team last weekend, as well as achieving viral infamy due to an embarrassing leaked video, Meyer was reportedly laughed out of the Jaguars locker room this week while attempting to reason with his team’s leadership group. He also cancelled a practice in favour of a press conference designed to accommodate his apology. Again, not a good sign.
The 0-4 Jaguars are in a tough spot anyway, but if they are no longer playing for their coach, this long 2021 season just became a heck of a lot longer for the AFC South strugglers.
Further losses will likely spell the end of Meyer’s short tenure in charge, and there’s significant reason to believe that there are players within the Jags’ locker room that don’t hate that idea.
The Titans are in town this weekend and, after suffering a shock defeat by the Jets last Sunday, they’ll be keen to bounce back to winning ways – with Derrick Henry, the NFL’s top rusher leading the way. Only two teams in the league concede more yardage per game than the Jags, which Henry will view as an open invitation to feast.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
I’m firm in the belief that a 1-3 football team should never give up 10 points to anyone, even if that team is yet to win a game this season. Especially in a divisional game.
The Vikings will be the superior team on Sunday evening, that is for sure, and I’d expect Minnesota to get the win when all is said and done.
However, the Vikes have only really looked good once so far this season, and they were guilty of punching down in Week One against the Bengals, which resulted in an overtime defeat.
Something similar may well happen this weekend, with the winless Lions coming to town.
Although sitting at 0-4, Detroit’s fanbase has been rejuvenated in the first month of the season, relishing the never-say-die, play-to-the-last-whistle attitude that new head coach Dan Campbell has instilled.
It won’t be enough to get them many victories this season, but it has allowed the Lions to run teams close in the fourth quarter. The Ravens and 49ers have both suffered scares at the hands of Detroit, and I feel Jared Goff and co can do something similar on Sunday, pushing a mediocre Vikings outfit to the edge.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The Patriots had negative rushing yards in their blockbuster Sunday night showdown with the Buccaneers last week and, to cut a long story short, that will NOT be happening again.
For a team largely built on the success of the ground game, a repeat abandonment of the run will not be acceptable this week, and they have a favourable matchup that they can utilise to put things right.
The Texans have a LOT of issues, but right at the top is their inability to stop the run. Houston rank 28th on the defensive rush yardage charts with 137 yards per game, and no team in the NFL has shipped more rushing touchdowns this season (8).
After a monumentally disappointing last outing, the Patriots’ #1 running option Damien Harris will have his sights set on a big day, and that should almost certainly include a visit or two to the end zone.
Thus, 11/2 is a decent price for a Harris brace, but with New England often utilising a range of running backs, I’d suggest playing more conservative with this one, with Paddy Power and Betfair offering evens for him to score anytime.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday at 21:25 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Are Zeke and Barkley all the way back?
Week four felt like a huge moment for the two NFC East running backs, so it’s almost fitting that they are going head-to-head in a divisional clash just seven days later.
Ezekiel Elliott produced his best performance for the best part of two years against a solid Carolina defense, rushing for 143 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley had the world believing again, as he finally looked like a back who had fully shaken off his injury woes, making New Orleans Saints defenders miss on his way to scoring the decisive overtime touchdown for the Giants.
Dallas plays pretty hard against the run, so a repeat performance won’t be easy for Barkley, but the Cowboys have also impressed in the secondary and that will give Daniel Jones second thoughts on going pass-heavy this Sunday. Saquon should get his opportunity, he just needs to step up, show his undoubted ability and take it.
As for Elliott, a similar display is more likely as the Giants only rank 20th against the run and have shown frailties against teams with strong ground games. A fourth-straight game with a touchdown for #21 looks like a strong possibility.
Odds correct at 2130 (08/10/21)
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