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NFL betting tips: Best bets, predictions and picks for Week 4
Resident tipster Ross Williams checks out Sunday’s big NFL match-ups and throws a big-priced punt into his weekly best bets.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
1.5pts Over 51.5 Total Points in Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts Over 54.5 Total Points in Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams at Evens (SBK)
1.5pts Cleveland Browns (-2) to beat the Minnesota Vikings at 10/11 (General)
1pt Derrick Henry (Titans) to score 2+ Touchdowns at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Despite the Vikings picking up their first win of the season last week against the Seahawks, I’m opting for Cleveland in this one.
There’s no doubt that the Vikes impressed in their 30-17 victory over Russell Wilson’s Seattle outfit, and the 323-yard, three-touchdown performance of quarterback Kirk Cousins was nothing short of sublime. However, I don’t believe this match-up favours Minnesota’s signal-caller.
Cousins has always flashed serious talent, but inconsistency has shrouded his career and it’s now common knowledge in league circles that he requires an ideal environment in order to thrive and show off his arm talent.
Dalvin Cook this week called his quarterback ‘the best in the game’ but the Vikings’ star running back was quick to caveat his point. Essentially, he might be right, but only when Kirk Cousins has a clean pocket and the time to operate.
The problem is, his pocket should be far from clean on Sunday.
Cleveland’s offence have been steadily going about their business in the first three weeks, accumulating a substantial 86 points, but the real fireworks have been going off on the defensive side of the ball.
The fearsome Browns’ front seven simply dominated the Chicago Bears last week, with Myles Garrett leading the way with 4.5 sacks – a franchise record.
You’d expect Cousins and the Vikings to perform much better than their NFC North counterparts on Sunday, but going up against a team that (staggeringly) allowed just ONE NET PASSING YARD in week three is a frightening proposition.
The Browns should keep Minnesota’s scoring to a minimum and, with Odell Beckham Jr. back in the picture, I fancy Cleveland’s offence to do enough to cover the skinny handicap, beating the Vikings by at least a field goal.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
- When: Sunday at 18:00 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
After three soul-destroying losses and a car-crash start to Zach Wilson’s NFL career, the New York Jets are crying out for a break. Unfortunately for them, that doesn’t come this Sunday.
Tennessee are in town this week and, after two straight wins following a shaky start, the Titans are looking more and more like the bonafide playoff contender they’ve been for the past two seasons.
The New York offence simply can’t find ways to stay on the field (or score points) and that’s a recipe for disaster when Derrick Henry has his cross-hairs locked.
The joint-leading rusher in the NFL was mostly nullified in week one against the Cardinals but has since gotten back to script, picking up 295 yards on the ground over the last fortnight.
He does only have three touchdowns on the year though, and that’s something Henry will be keen to build on at Metlife Stadium on Sunday.
Only three teams have conceded more rushing touchdowns (5) than the Jets so far this season and – with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones ruled out – the Titans will be leaning heavily on their superstar running back to carry the load of the offence and, crucially, provide the points required to secure a routine win.
Henry has 15 career games with multiple touchdowns, with every opportunity to reach a sweet 16 against the hapless Jets this weekend.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
- When: Sunday at 21:05 BST
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
With the NFC West division all playing each other this weekend, picking winners is going to be extremely difficult, so I’m going to do the smart thing and simply not try.
If forced into a pick, I’d say the 49ers should have the beating of a Seattle team that looks to be on the brink of a decline, but with injuries once again hurting San Francisco, it’s hard to side with the Niners with any great confidence.
With this in mind, it’s the total match points market that catches my eye.
Neither team can field a stable (or fully healthy) secondary unit at the moment and this should open the door for some of the league’s most prolific threats at receiver.
Deebo Samuel is second-only to Cooper Kupp in terms of receiving yardage this season, and the dual threat of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the opposite side-line require no introduction.
Add in the fact that the game will boast three quarterbacks (looking at you, Trey Lance) with the ability to put up big numbers and this match-up should almost guarantee a plethora of points.
The over has landed five times in the last six meetings between these two rivals, so let’s hope history repeats itself and the 52-point barrier is smashed on Sunday.
- Best Bet: Over 51.5 Total Points at 10/11
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
- When: Sunday at 21:05 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Another NFC West match-up, and another dip into the total points market.
The over hasn’t landed quite as consistently over the years in clashes between the Rams and the Cardinals, but the magic 55-point mark that we require on Sunday has been hit in two of the last three meetings.
That recent history is a clear reason for optimism, but it isn’t nearly as potent as the sheer offensive potential that this game provides.
The NFL have given out three NFC Offensive Player of the Week awards so far this season, yet only two men have been honoured. Matt Stafford of the Rams has picked up the award twice, while Kyler Murray claimed the spare.
In short, these two quarterbacks have been nothing short of superb in the opening month of the season, leading two of the three highest-scoring offences in the National Football League.
The combined weekly average of these two sides is 66 points through three games, which gives breaking the over total of 54.5 a massive chance, despite the counteracting abilities of the two defences. An all-action fire-fight in the passing game is well and truly on the cards on Sunday evening.
Murray will face his toughest task of the year against the incredible Aaron Donald at SoFi Stadium, but if any player in the NFL has the tools to produce while on the run and under duress, it’s the former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s done it time and time again in his young career, and I expect more of the same from the early MVP candidate.
Meanwhile, Stafford is now battle-hardened against strong defences after his sensational display last week, where he was able to consistently go over the top of the reigning Super Bowl champions, scoring four passing touchdowns on the bewildered Buccaneers.
He has settled into life beautifully in Los Angeles and will be keen to keep his first Rams loss at bay for as long as possible.
Brace yourselves for a classic.
- Best Bet: Over 54.5 Total Points at Evens
Odds correct as of 1900 BST on 01/10/21
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