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NFL betting tips: Best bets, predictions and picks for Week 14
Ross Williams looks ahead to week 14 of the NFL season, picking out a best bet in four of this Sunday’s match-ups.
NFL betting tips: Week 14
2pts Carolina Panthers (-2.5) to beat the Atlanta Falcons at 10/11 (General)
2pts Over 48 Total Match Points in Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs at 10/11 (General)
2pts Cincinnati Bengals to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 11/10 (General)
1pt Jalen Guyton (Chargers) to score a touchdown at 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
This NFC South matchup features the team with the second-worst defence in the NFL and the Carolina Panthers, a team who currently sit safely in the league’s defensive top ten, despite a topsy-turvy season and a record to match.
Assuming Carolina stick to the game-plan that served them so well when these two sides met six weeks ago, I fancy these defensive numbers to be the difference.
Atlanta’s route to victory in this game relies on a hit-and-hope approach from quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons have a mediocre run game at best and their only real method of scoring significant points is utilising the likes of Cordarelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts through the air.
The problem is, Carolina are the second-best defence in the entire league against the pass, which makes them perfectly capable of taking away Atlanta’s primary threat.
With this in mind, it’s tough to imagine the Falcons scoring beyond their season average of 18 points.
When these two teams faced off in October, Carolina came away with a six-point victory in a game that featured a heavy and massively successful emphasis on the run. With a new offensive play-calling structure this week following the release of Joe Brady, I’d be amazed if the Panthers don’t build on what has worked previously.
Now tooled up with Cam Newton behind the offensive line, the Panthers would be foolish to not exploit the run game even more in this one, and that could spell curtains for a team that should struggle against an RPO game-plan heavily featuring runs from Newton and Chuba Hubbard.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
For a large part of the season – even when winning - the Kansas City Chiefs looked undercooked, out of focus and Patrick Mahomes appeared to be a shadow of the superstar he has become.
Then they played the Las Vegas Raiders.
For whatever reason, the trip to Sin City sparked KC into life. Mahomes threw for five touchdowns in an offensive bloodbath that resulted in a 41-14 road victory. From there, the Chiefs have continued to win, all but securing their position in the postseason.
Las Vegas have been up-and-down for much of the year, with statement wins coming as frequently as lacklustre defeats.
They may well come to play on Sunday, looking to make amends for the dismal loss a month ago. Plus, the Raiders’ still have hopes of a playoff berth themselves.
However, even if Derek Carr and the offence can get cooking against the Chiefs’ D, I struggle to see what adjustments Las Vegas have made defensively since Mahomes carved them up for over 400 passing yards.
This tells me that points should be a near certainty in this one and – seeing as the previous fixture delivered 55 points in a blowout – the line of 48 points that’s available at 10/11 looks very tempting indeed.
- Best Bet: Over 48 Total Match Points
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers
The playoff-hopeful Chargers are far superior to their opponents on Sunday and I’d fully expect them to cover the 9.5 point spread on offer against the hapless New York Giants.
However, I’ll opt for some value in this one due to a Covid-19 crisis that has gripped the LA offence.
Star receiver Keenan Allen has already been ruled out of the clash after testing positive for the virus, so Brandon Staley will be forced to shuffle the pack.
Mike Williams – having an exceptional year – will start the day as WR1 if all goes to plan, and this provides an excellent opportunity for Jalen Guyton to step us as Justin Herbert’s second-best option, securing him plenty of game time against a poor team.
This is where the value comes in. Guyton hasn’t been a major focal point of this offence this year, but he has still regularly picked up targets and he’s recorded a catch in all but two games this season, despite being very much the Chargers’ third-strongest option.
This upgrade to the starting unit could not come at a better time for Guyton, coming off his best-performance of 2021. The 24-year-old receiver caught all four passes that came his way against the Bengals, accumulating 90 yards and recording his first touchdown of the season.
He has the trust of his quarterback, the chance to prove his worth and a middle-of-the-road defensive opponent in front of him. At 3/1 to score a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, he seems well worthy of a punt.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are generally good on a bounce-back week and Joe Burrow will be keen to make amends for a disappointing defeat to the Chargers last time out.
This is the closest match-up of the week, but I can’t help following the value in this one, with the Bengals home underdogs against a team that suffered a seven-point loss to an off-the-boil Seattle Seahawks outfit last Sunday.
Burrow is 8-2 against the handicap in games following a Bengals loss, which speaks volumes of his competitive spirit and although he’s facing a statistically good defence this weekend, I do think his offensive unit can do the business with the likes of Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon in good form.
Stopping the 49ers run will likely be the key here and the Bengals match up well, as only three teams in the league concede fewer rushing yards per game. If they can take away the threat of Eli Mitchell, this one should be there for Cincinnati’s taking at a good price of 11/10.
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (11/12/21)
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