NFL betting tips: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs preview, predictions and best bets

NFL betting tips: Ravens @ Chiefs

2pts Chiefs (-3) to win at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

1pt Derrick Henry 75+ rushing yards at 6/4 (bet365)

1pt George Karlaftis 1+ sack at 10/11 (bet365)

0.5pts Xavier Worthy 75+ receiving yards at 3/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Kick-off time: Friday, 01:20 BST
• TV: Sky Sports Main Event
• Spread: Chiefs -3 @ evens
• Total: Over 46.0 @ 5/6

The NFL is finally back and kicks off with a rematch of the 2023 AFC Conference Championship, as the Baltimore Ravens travel to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are now eyeing their third consecutive Super Bowl. They’ve won eight AFC West titles in a row, alongside three Super Bowls in the past five years. As a rule of thumb, it’s wise to not bet against Patrick Mahomes.

He may be the best QB the NFL has ever seen. The two-time MVP boasts as 36-11 home record, he’s 15-4 in September, and 5-2 on Thursdays. Plus, he’s 4-1 specifically against the Ravens – including a 17-10 win back in January in the AFC Conference Championship.

To add more concern, there’s plenty of change for Baltimore. The biggest loss is their defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. His defence was best in class – last season they finished first in DVOA, points allowed and sacks, we can expect regression coming into this season. Alongside this, they have lost three starters from their offensive line - John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses are all gone. Harbaugh has talked positively on his new look offensive line, but the Ravens have lost some serious talent.

• CLICK HERE to back the Chiefs (-3) to win with Sky Bet

One positive though, is the addition of future Hall of Fame running back Derrick Henry. Even at 30 years of age, Henry is the best running back that Lamar Jackson has had in his career. His ability to bulldoze offensive lines and convert short yardage situations will help take pressure off Lamar and open the playbook. Henry’s line is set at a surprisingly low 64.5 rushing yards – a number I see him clearing.

The Chiefs ranked as the 4th best passing defence in the league last season, but against the rush they stacked up as 18th in the league, conceding 113 yards/game. In four career games against the Chiefs, Henry has averaged 111 yards/game, alongside scoring six touchdowns. To help the new look offensive line settle down, the Ravens would be wise to lean into the run and give the rock to their new RB on repeat.

That offensive line will be crucial for the Ravens. In games where Jackson has been sacked 4+ times Baltimore are 8-9, in games where he’s been sacked less than 4 times, they’re 50-10. The Chiefs defence averaged 3.4 sacks last season – and Karlaftis will be looking to build on his strong sophomore season that saw 10.5 sacks alongside the best defensive tackle in the league, Chris Jones.

The Chiefs boast a flashy new offensive weapon, first round pick Xavier Worthy – who may finally be the Tyreek Hill replacement Kansas have longed for. Early flashes from training camp shows the chemistry between Worthy and Mahomes is there, and all it takes is one deep pass for Worthy to clear his yardage.

We saw last season Kelce come alive in the playoffs, but he started the season uncharacteristically slowly, averaging 55 receiving yards through his first four games. New addition Hollywood Brown is absent for Week 1, which opens yet more targets up for Worthy. The Ravens were staunch against the pass last season, but this is their first game under a new defensive coordinator – look for Mahomes to take the top off with Worthy.

One final name I like from the Chiefs is a brand-new addition – Samaje Perine, who was released from the Broncos and scooped up by Kansas. Andy Reid has waxed lyrical over Perine, saying: "We all know what he did to us when he was at Cincinnati with that screen play, but Samaje's done this over his career, where he's been a phenomenal third-down back, but he's also a good runner.

“I just think he's a good, well-rounded football player that's extremely intelligent."

Perine’s betting line isn’t out yet – but I’d look to take the overs and a touchdown. The Chiefs like to rotate their rushing attack, and Reid has confirmed that Samaje is healthy and ready to go.

The 17-10 score from the AFC Championship game may worry some to avoid the over, but that game was played in the pouring rain with a temperature of seven degrees. The Chiefs have cleared this total in 8/10 of their last season openers, whilst the Ravens have scored 25+ points in every single season opener since 2018.

The Chiefs boast a lot more continuity than the Ravens, and the combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid just cannot be beaten. It may take the Ravens a few games to get back up to speed, losing their defensive coordinator, three of their starting five offensive linemen, and six members from their defence. Take the reigning champs at home, in what should be an action-packed start to the season.

• Verdict: Ravens 20-27 Chiefs

Posted at 1200 BST on 03/09/24

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