NFL betting tips: AFC Wild Card Round weekend preview and best bets

NFL betting tips: AFC Wild Card Round

2pts Derrick Henry (Ravens) over 99.5 rushing yards at 11/10 (General)

2pts Denver Broncos (+8.5) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 11/10 (General)

2pts Los Angeles Chargers (-3) to beat the Houston Texans at 11/10 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

• Sunday 0100 GMT, live on Sky Sports

Saturday rounds off with a high-stakes clash between two AFC North rivals.

The Ravens are heavily favoured against the Steelers, who head into the postseason on a disappointing four-game slide. Recent history points to Baltimore covering the 9.5-point spread, but there’s a few factors that make the prospect of backing a blowout a little dicey.

Both teams are in desperation mode. If Pittsburgh lose, they end a once-promising season with five-straight defeats and the future of head coach Mike Tomlin – a stalwart of the Steelers organisation – may come into question. It wasn’t a given that he returned for this season, so further playoff disappointment could signal the end of the road.

Make no mistake, there is not a single person on that Pittsburgh roster that wants to be tarred with the part-responsibility of Tomlin’s Hall of Fame run in the city coming to an end.

As for Baltimore, the pressure cooker is well and truly on. They’re expected to win comfortably, but the Ravens have not handled playoff pressure well in recent season and, should they falter again, there’s even the possibility that John Harbaugh’s clock begins ticking rather loudly.

With this in mind, let’s steer clear of the outright selections and check out the player props.

One name immediately jumps off the page and, of course, it’s DERRICK HENRY.

The King’s rushing yardage line is set at 99.5 and the numbers suggest we can confidently take the over.

As match-ups go, Pittsburgh certainly aren’t the easiest. The Steelers rank 6th in rushing yards allowed and in usual circumstances that would be enough for me to dismiss the chances of the opposing running back. However, Derrick Henry isn’t just any running back.

The future Hall of Famer has also faced the Broncos (#3 in rushing yards allowed) and the Buccaneers (#4) this season and the results speak for themselves. On both occasions, Henry rushed for 100+ yards and, against Tampa in particular, he was remarkable, averaging over 11 yards per carry in a dominant 169-yard performance.

In Henry’s two regular season match-ups with the Steelers this season, he rushed for a combined 227 yards on 37 carries. He also snagged a touchdown in the first meeting, back in November.

He averaged 6.1 yards per carry across those two games and a repeat performance would put Henry in prime position to hit three figures. Nineteen carries – his seasonal average – at that rate, would equate to over 115 yards.

Let’s take the over.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

• Sunday 1800 GMT, live on Sky Sports

Of the six playoff games this weekend, there’s one particular spread that catches the eye.

The BRONCOS are 8.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, and it just feels too big.

Denver, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm, have been fantastic this season under head coach Sean Payton and if they were to upset the Bills on Sunday, there’d be surprise, but it wouldn’t blow many minds.

The Broncos did lose seven games during the regular season, but only once were they beaten by multiple scores. They have made a habit out of sticking in games until the bitter end and, often, they’ve come away with victory.

Buffalo obviously have a dominant offence, but Denver will provide a stern test. Across the regular season, the Broncos allowed just 18.3 points per game on average (#3 in the NFL).

They are also one of only seven teams to have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards per game (96.4) and they recorded 15 interceptions over the course of the season, thanks to an impressive secondary unit led by the mercurial cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

Josh Allen and the Bills are firmly expected to take their place in the Divisional Round by many, but they’ll have to work for it. If Denver have their way, points could be at a premium, but even if Allen turns his MVP-level class into a barrage of early scoring, the Broncos’ offence has the ability to keep Buffalo from running away with it.

They’ve averaged a mammoth 32.2 points per game in their last five, while facing some strong AFC opposition in the Los Angeles Chargers and a desperate Cincinnati Bengals.

Strap in for a game that could easily turn out to be the highlight of Wild Card Round.

LA Chargers @ Houston Texans

• Saturday 2130 GMT, live on Sky Sports

The postseason gets under way on Saturday, with the AFC Wild Card Round initially taking centre stage.

As has become custom when they reach the playoffs, the Texans are once again in their Saturday evening slot and this time, it’s the LA CHARGERS coming to town.

Los Angeles are favoured by three points and – while they’re the visitors – it’s easy to see why the bookmakers have made that assessment.

• CLICK HERE to back LA Chargers -3 with Sky Bet

The primary factor is their head coach, Jim Harbaugh.

The turnaround he has masterminded in his first season back in the NFL has been remarkable, adding six victories to the Chargers’ 2023 regular season total.

Stiffening up the Chargers’ defence was always going to be key to any success they enjoyed this season and Harbaugh has managed that particular feat in the most extraordinary way.

A year ago, Los Angeles ended the regular season having allowed 23.4 points per game. Through 17 regular season games this season, LA have allowed just 17.7 points per game, fewer than anyone else in the NFL. Offensively, their uplift in performance has also been significant, with the 2024 Chargers scoring 3.2 points per game more than last season.

All told, LA under the Harbaugh regime are almost nine points per game better off and, crucially, they head into the playoffs with some momentum.

While Houston have suffered a couple of beatings of late, admittedly at the hands of the Chiefs and Ravens, the Chargers have won three-straight and confidence is high.

The fact they have to travel to NRG Stadium for this match-up also shouldn’t faze the Chargers. They’ve won six games on the road already this season and they’ve avoided the last-minute rescheduling problems they’d have inevitably faced if this game had been planned for Los Angeles.

The Rams, for context, haven’t had that luxury. Their ‘home’ game this weekend will now be played in Arizona, due to the impact of the horrific wildfires in California this past week.

Plus, NRG Stadium will bring some welcome memories to the Chargers’ head coach. 367 days ago, it was the scene of Michigan’s National Championship victory, the crowning glory of Harbaugh’s college coaching career and his swansong before making his long-awaited return to the NFL.

Defensively, the Chargers can at least match the level of the Texans and, on the offensive side of the ball, LA have the edge in the key position.

C.J. Stroud has proven to be a quality pick-up by Houston and the 2023 first-round draft pick is every bit a franchise quarterback. But, his sophomore season hasn’t been quite as flashy as his rookie year and although his numbers are still more than acceptable at this level, it’s fair to say he will be the second-best passer in this contest.

Justin Herbert has outranked Stroud in every key category during the regular season, with a pass completion percentage of 65.9% (Stroud completed 63.2%), 23 passing touchdowns (20) and just four interceptions all season long. Stroud, on the other hand, threw 12 picks and that’s a trait that could make all the difference on Saturday evening.

The Chargers are ranked in the top 10 for defensive interceptions and if they can turn the ball over in Houston, one extra possession may well push them over the edge and into the Divisional Round. Take the Chargers.

Posted at 1630 GMT on 11/01/25

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