Ross Williams looks through the markets to pick out the best specials and props bets for Super Bowl LVII.
2pts Opening kick-off to be a touchback – No at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Chiefs successful 4th down conversion – Yes at 4/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Both teams to score 10+ points in each half at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1pt Any player to have a 55+ yard reception at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
The Eagles and Chiefs are evenly matched to the most extreme degree. They’ve even scored exactly the same amount of points as each other this season.
With this in mind, it adds up that they’ll be keeping pace with each other throughout the big game, and both sides have averaged over 10 points per half this year.
The two highest-scoring teams in their respective divisions know that conservatism isn’t an option in this one, so expect points early as well as later down the track.
Both the Eagles and Chiefs are proficient on 4th down and with the importance of staying on the field at an absolute premium on Sunday, it wouldn’t surprise to see both teams rolling the dice on 4th and short situations.
Due to the near unstoppable nature of the Eagles’ short-yardage QB sneak, there’s little value in backing Philly to convert.
However, KC’s price is more generous and with a 75% conversion record on the year, I like the value in Mahomes and co. extended a drive at some point during the evening, as they either chase a lead or look to keep Philly’s dangerous offence on the sideline for as long as possible.
Both Mahomes and Hurts have arms that can break open a defence, and the receivers capable of going over the top on a big play.
The likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling has made his career on being able to get deep down the field quickly and Mahomes is never afraid to let the ball fly.
With pocket pressure likely throughout the night, we can expect a couple of occasions in which KC’s star man will air the ball out in the hope that one of his receivers has found daylight down the field.
Fear isn’t a part of Mahomes’ make-up, and it’s why he’s thrown for more yards than anyone else this season.
As for the Eagles’ offence, A.J. Brown is one of the NFL’s premier deep-ball threats and due to the presence of Devonta Smith on the other side, the Chiefs will be wary of committing to their usual tactics of double-teaming the opposition’s star man.
In single coverage, Brown will fancy his chances down the field against any cornerback who tries his luck, and Hurts is confident enough to give Brown an opportunity to make a career-defining play.
Country star Chris Stapleton is lined up to sing the national anthem this year and the bookmakers have been aggressive in response.
The over/under line stands at a whopping 127 seconds and, with limited information available on Stapleton’s previous anthem renditions, the under appears to be the move.
The line is at its longest in recent memory and multiple US-based bookmakers have already shaved five seconds off the time since odds were released, which may signal an opportunity for us on British shores.
Fellow country star Luke Bryan hit the under with his 2017 performance and, as many are pointing to Stapleton’s super-sized cover of Metallica’s Nothing Else Matters for context, it’s worth nothing that although his version is indeed close to two minutes longer than the original, Stapleton doesn’t actually sing during the final three minutes of the track. As ever, the official timing will be taken from the point that he sings the final word, “brave”.
As the anthem has only gone over the 2:07 mark six times in history, I’ll keep the faith that Stapleton will follow the script, wrap things up early and let the Eagles and Chiefs get on with the game.
Long-time readers of my column will know how much I love this annual bet.
Due to a unique quirk in which the ball used for the Super Bowl’s kickoff is shipped directly to the Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, it isn’t generally ‘worked on’ by team staff pre-game, which goes against the general norm.
This means the ball kicked by either Harrison Butker or Jake Elliott will be completely pristine and the least aerodynamic it could possibly be in that situation.
In basic terms, it won’t travel as far.
Despite his monster leg, Butker failed to kick a touchback when the Chiefs last played in the Super Bowl two years ago and although Elliott also has exceptional strength, it’s worth considering that we’re expecting a points-fest on Sunday evening.
Both teams will be aiming to get on the front foot early so, unless the ball is kicked out of the back of the endzone, the temptation for the returners to bring the ball out will likely be too much if they are even given a glimpse of an opportunity.
Odds correct at 1310 GMT (08/02/23)
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