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Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles: Thursday Night Football best bets, predictions, picks and preview
Matt Temple-Marsh is back to preview Thursday night's offering from the NFL, with Minnesota Vikings taking on Philadelphia Eagles.
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NFL betting tips: Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
2pts under 40.5 points at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Alexander Mattison under 51.5 rushing yards at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Eagles (-7.5) at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Jalen Carter 1+ sack at 21/20 (bet365)
1pt Kirk Cousins 1+ interception at 20/23 (bet365)
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5) at 1/1
- Total: Under 48.5 at 10/11
Despite Philadelphia’s Week One win, it was a disappointing start to the season for both sides. The Eagles came out hot, with a 16-0 lead in the first quarter – but then their offence was a disaster, with three consecutive three-and-outs to end the first half. The second half saw a slight improvement as they managed to seal the win, but this was anything but an enjoyable watch – nothing like the Eagles of 2022.
The Minnesota Vikings were one of the more favoured teams going into Week One – playing against the Baker Mayfield-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that optimism disappeared quickly, in a 20-17 loss. If you look at the box score alone it’s a typically solid game from Kirk Cousins, but it’s just another case of the quarterback being unable to close out games.
However, it was the run game that was one of the more glaring weaknesses for the Vikings. Dalvin Cook was cut in the off-season, with backup Alexander Mattison promoted to the starting role. The backup showed flashes in his career but replacing a 1,000-yard rusher in Cook is no easy feat – and Week One highlighted just that. Mattison carried the rock eleven times for just 34 yards – the team managed just 41 yards on the day, a measly 2.4 yards per carry with some questionable run blocking.
Meanwhile the Eagles managed to contain breakout running back Rhamondre Stevenson to 25 rushing yards from 12 carries (2.1 yards per carry) – and they conceded just 76 total rushing yards on the day, at 3.4 yards per carry. Mattison’s rushing line is set at 49.5 – take the under after a disappointing Week One performance, alongside having to face a much fiercer defensive line.
Alexander Mattison with a really impressive TD catch here. Breaking a tackle and making it happen. pic.twitter.com/gU8dLruKkb
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) September 10, 2023
Speaking on that fiercer defensive line, rookie Jalen Carter kicked off his NFL career with a bang. Carter totalled eight pressures, one sack, seven hurries in just 34 pass rush snaps. In all last season there was just one Eagles player who managed more than eight pressures in one game, Haason Reddick. Carter is still 9/2 to win defensive rookie of the year, expect that to shrink – but in this game, 1+ sack at 21/10 is more than favourable.
The Vikings conceded two sacks to the Buccaneers in Week One, and starting centre Garrett Bradbury suffered an injury that has left him unable to practice – dealing with back issues that saw him miss five games last season. It’s a short turnaround for Bradbury, and if he misses this contest, Austin Schlottman shall be his replacement. Last week he conceded two pressures and posted a 56.9 run blocking grade and looking back at last season Schlottman ranked as the 42nd out of 43 centres in the league. In the three games Schlottman started last year, the Vikings conceded a huge 14 sacks. There’s a big opportunity for Carter to take advantage.
In addition, keep an eye on turnovers, with a backup centre there’s a greater propensity for turnovers, with botched exchanges and more pressure. When these sides met in 2022, Cousins threw three interceptions in a 24-7 loss. Captain Kirk had a pick last week and is 20/23 for another against this vaunted Eagles secondary – this could be a long night for the veteran quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles had a slow offensive start to the season. They managed just 4.1 yards per play, with only one play going over 15 yards. They closed the first half with three three-and-outs and went 4/13 on third downs. Brand new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson had never called plays before in the NFL, and it was a rough start against the Patriots to say the least.
New Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is up next, and while we can expect this offence to get into more of a rhythm, it’s going to take some time to reach the heights of last year still. Under 48.5 points looks strong at 10/11, but I’d push that further with two disappointing offences. Under 40.5 points at 5/2 is a generous price, in a game where the Eagles defence will dominate.
Score prediction: Eagles 24-10 Vikings
Preview posted at 0940 BST on 14/09/23
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