The NFL returns to London on Sunday as Jacksonville Jaguars take on Miami Dolphins and Ross Williams picks out his best bets.
NFL betting tips: London 2021
1pt Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 7/5 (bet365)
1pt Under 45 total points at 6/5 (VBet)
1pt Dan Arnold anytime touchdown scorer at 9/2 (bet365)
The NFL is back at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for a second-straight week and, this time, it’s the turn of the Jacksonville Jaguars to host their annual London home game.
It’s an all-Florida affair this season as the Miami Dolphins are the visitors, but I’m afraid that’s where the glamour of this contest starts and ends.
Much like the Falcons’ clash with the Jets seven days prior, this game pits two pretty poor football teams up against each other, but that doesn’t mean intriguing betting opportunities aren’t there.
First and foremost, I’m setting my stall out and BACKING THE JAGUARS AS 11/8 UNDERDOGS.
The recent Jacksonville track record makes for the grimmest of reading, but a first win has to come eventually and I don’t see many better chances ahead than Miami on British soil.
The Jags have lost 20 straight NFL games – a run that began in September 2020 – but remarkably, the numbers and analytics that matter all seem to favour Urban Meyer’s side, rather than the Dolphins.
In terms of points scored and conceded, both the offensive and defensive units of Jacksonville are outperforming the Dolphins through five weeks and, although the Jags’ league-leading -10 turnover differential is an obvious concern – the vast majority of those turnovers were interceptions thrown by star rookie Trevor Lawrence in the first three games of the campaign.
There’s no question that the 2021 first-overall pick had a rough start to life in the NFL, but there’s been clear improvement over the last fortnight, a stretch that has seen Lawrence throw just one pick, while hovering around the 70% pass completion mark.
With Tua Tagovailoa not guaranteed to be the Miami starter on Sunday, there’s a real argument that Jacksonville will have the best quarterback on the field in North London. Jacoby Brissett is a solid pair of hands, but he lacks the X-factor to win games. As for Tua, he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career – and especially at Alabama – but coming off another injury, the upside of any potential performance on Sunday is pretty low.
Lawrence is due a breakout game and, much like Kyle Pitts last week, he may well get the opportunity to shine in front of the British fans.
Having plenty of possession and time with the ball in his hands will be key, and few matchups are more favourable than Miami. They rank dead last in the NFL on defensive third down conversions, which essentially means that the Dolphins defence really struggles to get off the field.
This creates opportunities, fatigue and ultimately the perfect proving ground for Trevor Lawrence to show us what he’s got.
The Total Match Points line is again a discussion point this week, and I believe it gives us another great opportunity. The line currently sits at 47 points and, after the Falcons and Jets only JUST broke the 45-point threshold last week despite some standout offensive performances, I fancy the UNDER 45 POINTS this time around at a price of 10/11.
The Jags and the Dolphins are two of the lowest-scoring offences in the NFL, combining for a mere 34.4 points per game on average.
Admittedly the fragility of both defences does give me cause for concern, but it’s hard to back any kind of over when the offensive units have been so stale in previous weeks. Plus, for fans of trends, the ‘under’ has landed in seven of the previous eight meetings between Miami and Jacksonville.
Kyle Pitts stood out to me last week as a potential touchdown scorer and, due to that success, I am once again eye-balling a tight end at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, albeit one with much less reputation and a higher price.
DAN ARNOLD has only been a Jaguar for two weeks after being involved in a trade with the Carolina Panthers, but the Jacksonville offence has wasted no time in accommodating the former Cardinal.
He caught two passes on Thursday Night Football - just three days after joining up with the team - and Arnold was in the thick of the action last Sunday in the loss to the Titans.
Despite losing a fumble early on, Urban Meyer and Lawrence kept the faith with the tight end, to the tune of eight targets. All-in-all, he ended the night with six catches for 64 yards, leading the team in receiving on his home debut.
There was an instant rapport with his quarterback and I’d fully expect that to continue on Sunday against a defence that generally concedes 50 yards per game to the tight end position. The Dolphins have also shipped three touchdowns to tight ends in 2021 and I like the chances of Arnold to make that four during this one.
He has seven receiving touchdowns in his NFL career and, at a great price of 9/2, I like Dan Arnold to add one more to his tally on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars v Miami Dolphins best bets
- 1pt Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 7/5 (bet365)
- 1pt Under 45 total points at 6/5 (VBet)
- 1pt Dan Arnold anytime touchdown scorer at 9/2 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (15/10/21)
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