Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers betting tips: Preview, picks and best bets

NFL betting tips: NFC Championship Game

1pt Brandon Aiyuk 100+ receiving yards at 15/8 (General)

1pt 49ers over 2.5 total sacks at 10/13 (bet365)

1pt Aidan Hutchinson 1+ sack at 4/5 (bet365, Sky Bet)

1pt Jahmyr Gibbs 15.5+ longest rushing attempt at 5/6 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

• Kick-off time: Sunday, 23:30 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Spread: Detroit Lions +7.5 at 10/11
• Total: Over 51.5 points at 10/11

The Detroit Lions are the feel-good story of the NFL, and on the cusp of their first ever Super Bowl appearance.

With Dan Campbell at the helm, this is a transformed side, but a trip to the number one seed 49ers stands between them.

For the first time ever, we’ll see a first overall pick face off against the last pick in the draft in the playoffs, with Jared Goff against Brock Purdy.

The bookies are giving San Francisco a huge seven points, but there’s a lot to like about both teams.

The 49ers looked lethargic in their playoff debut against the Packers, as they rescued a victory from the jaws of defeat. Brock Purdy struggled in the rain but was clutch when it mattered most - making several big throws during a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with just over a minute to go.

The Lions look the in-form side, and while they struggled more than expected against the Bucs – they never trailed and had a dominant fourth quarter where they asserted their dominance.

There are injury concerns for both sides, which may make a huge difference.

For the 49ers, playmaker Deebo Samuel had to exit against the Packers with a shoulder injury – and his potential absence could be significant. The 49ers average three points more per game when Samuel plays. They are 8-9 in games he has missed compared to 53-23 when he plays.

The Niners average 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field and 5.7 yards per play without him. Deebo practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday and fellow WR BRANDON AIYUK expects him to play, but he may well not be near 100%. However, this is a great spot for Aiyuk.

Aiyuk is often the unsung star of the offense, overshadowed by McCaffrey, Kittle & Deebo – so it may surprise some that he had 75 catches this season for 1,342 yards – he’s one of the very best in the NFL.

He faces a Detroit secondary who are haemorrhaging yards lately, in their last six games they have allowed 322 passing yards per game (most in the NFL), alongside 12 passing touchdowns (most in the NFL). Over the last two games we’ve seen huge games from Mike Evans (eight catches for 147 yards) & Puka Nacua (nine catches for 181 yards).

The 49ers should be able to pass the ball, and given Samuel's injury concerns, Aiyuk will be a prime target.

• CLICK HERE to back Brandon Aiyuk's receiving yards line with Sky Bet

More injury concerns come from Detroit’s offensive line. Centre Frank Ragnow is heavily banged up, but he refused to leave the games against the Bucs – and will play against the 9ers.

However, right guard Jonah Jackson will be unable to play – meaning backup Kayode Awosika will step in. Awosika has allowed 21 pressures in just 189 pass blocking snaps – that’s one in every nine.

For reference, tackle Penei Sewell is only allowing one pressure ever 32 snaps. This is the matchup to exploit for the 49ers, and their defensive tackles Javon Hargave (87.1 PFF grade) & Arik Armstead (86.2 PFF grade) have combined for 12 sacks & 102 pressures this season, huge numbers for interior defensive linemen.

Goff lacks the athleticism to avoid pressure up the gut – Awosika is a big liability for the Lions.

However, if we flip the lines and focus on one of Detroit’s stars, there’s a huge pathway to success. AIDAN HUTCHINSON led the league in pressures and has been on a tear as of late – with eight sacks in his last four games.

His matchup looks to be against 9ers RT Colton McKivitz, who has allowed nine sacks on the year (nearly double any 9er), alongside 52 pressures – the fourth most of any offensive tackle in football.

Keep an eye on hometown Hutch as he looks to be a difference maker.

• CLICK HERE to back Aidan Hutchinson 1+ sack with Sky Bet

Detroit’s offence has been one of their strengths this season - scoring 27.1 points per game (fifth) whilst averaging 394.8 total yards per game (third).

But a trip to Levi Stadium may be a challenge. The Lions have not fared as well outdoors this season either, averaging 17.8 points in open-air stadiums compared to 30.7 points per game indoors.

Additionally, they are averaging nearly six points fewer per game away from home. The 49ers have held their opponents to 21 points or less in 13 of 18 games this season – and pose a threat to Goff.

A total of 26% of Goff’s passes are over the middle of the field, head and shoulders above the league average of 20%.

San Francisco ranks first in pass DVOA (defence adjusted value over average) over the middle by a sizeable margin. The 49ers have a total defensive DVOA of -11.7% when opposing quarterbacks throw to the middle of the field - they are the only team in the league with a negative value.

They lead the league with just 6.2 yards per target allowed and a success rate of 41%. Linebackers Fred Warner & Dre Greenlaw are arguably the best duo in the league and may throw Goff off his game.

This 49ers defence kept Jordan Love in check with his first game with under 200 passing yards since October, as he threw two interceptions as well.

The Packers did have success with Aaron Jones though, and the one-two punch of Gibbs & Montgomery will be vital if the Lions are to put points on the board.

After a truly dominant start to the season, the 49ers’ run defence has been mediocre down the stretch. They have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games, and Gibbs is in a great spot.

He’s one of the best running backs when it comes to rushing outside of the tackles, rankings as fifth in yards per game, and is tied third for 10+ rushes outside of the tackles.

This 49ers defence may appear tough against the run, but they have faced the fewest rushes against. Specifically, against rushes outside of the tackles though, they rank 28th, and have allowed the 24th most 10+ yard rushes.

For what it’s worth, Jared Goff has lost five straight against the 49ers, dating back to his Rams days with one sole loss with the Lions. A lot has changed since then, but this is a uniquely tough assignment against the 9ers.

If Detroit are to win, they need to have long controlling drives, dominating through their ground game – and we saw this against Tampa Bay where they had three 10+ play drives resulting in touchdowns.

If they can dominate the ball & the clock, they can certainly make their first ever Super Bowl appearance. However, the 49ers are simply loaded.

Last week we perhaps saw some rust – having not played meaningful football since Week 17. Deebo’s health is a huge factor, but there’s playmakers everywhere you look. Detroit’s defence is the glaring weakness out of the four offensive/defensive units, and Kyle Shanahan’s team boasts the playoff experience.

Back the 49ers in a close game.

• Score prediction: San Francisco 49ers 31-28 Detroit Lions

Posted at 1510 GMT on 27/01/24

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