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NFL betting tips: Lions @ Chiefs
1pt Lions +6.5 at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Amon-Ra St. Brown over 77.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt David Montgomery over 75 rushing yards at 39/10 (bet365)
1pt Jahmyr Gibbs under 37.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Travis Kelce to score a brace at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:20 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Lions +6.5 at 10/11
- Total: Under 54.5 at 5/6
The NFL is finally back and kicks off with a Thursday night opener with two of the best offences in football. The Chiefs averaged a league-high 29.2 points per game last season. Detroit scored 26.6 per game - coming in as the fifth-best.
What a way to kick off 2023.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the cream of the crop in the NFL. They have won seven straight AFC West titles, had five consecutive trips to the AFC Championship game and have won the Super Bowl in two out of the last three seasons.

Patrick Mahomes is arguably the greatest quarterback the NFL has ever seen and now faces a Lions defence who are coming off an embarrassing 2022.
This unit allowed 392.4 yards per game (the worst in the NFL), which looks to be a major mismatch against the Chiefs, who racked up 413.6 yards per game – the best in the league.
The Lions did however make some moves on defence and have shored up their secondary. Plus, we can hope for a breakout year from defensive end Aidan Hutchinson in what looks to be a stronger front seven for Detroit.
The Lions closed out their season in style, going 8-2 in their last ten games. Quarterback Jared Goff continued his resurgence, throwing just one interception in that span, as the Lions nearly snuck into the playoffs.
This offensive line is truly one of the best in the league and there are some exciting weapons.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN has the potential to post league leading numbers this season – in 2022 the WR hauled in 106 passes, the seventh-highest in the NFL.
Can @amonra_stbrown continue his ascension as one of the best WRs in the game? pic.twitter.com/8JMANfm6TN
— NFL (@NFL) August 20, 2023
This will be a plus matchup against the Chiefs – who ranked as the seventh weakest secondary to slot receivers in 2022. St. Brown ran 430 snaps from the slot last season (ninth most in the NFL), and he saw a 27.8% target share.
Take the OVERS for his YARDAGE (over 77.5 yards at 5/6) and RECEPTIONS (over 6.5 at 5/6).
There has been much talk over rookie RB JAHMYR GIBBS – who the Lions selected with the 12th overall pick. He’ll be competing with veteran back David Montgomery, and the early reports suggest that Montgomery will lead the way as RB1.
Pre-season chatter suggests Gibbs will be used in a hybrid RB/WR role, as an elite pass catcher – but I’d be shocked to see the rookie get many carries in this game as they ease him in and utilise him in the passing game – with Montgomery as the bell cow.
Back OVER 47.5 RUSHING YARDS for MONTGOMERY at 5/6, and UNDER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS for GIBBS at 5/6.
To sweeten the pot for Montgomery – elite DT Chris Jones is in the middle of a contract holdout with the Chiefs and appears very unlikely to play in this game.
Jones is one of the most important defensive players in the league, and if he misses this game the Chiefs defensive line shifts from a solid group to a below average one.
Lions to sign RB David Montgomery to 3-year, $18 million deal. (via @TomPelissero, @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/PpaF0Fv6w9
— NFL (@NFL) March 15, 2023
Expect the Lions to abuse this matchup with their mauling offensive line – MONTGOMERY TO RUSH FOR 75+ YARDS at 39/10 is more than attractive.
But for all the Lions hope – this is still the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes & Andy Reid can beat any team in the NFL, as they often do. The interior of the offensive line is one of the best in the league – but the Chiefs are rolling out two new offensive tackles, RT Jawaan Taylor & LT Donovan Smith.
Both players are coming off middling campaigns, and this could be a weak point for Kansas. Alongside this, the WR room lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, leaving an unproven group.

However, tight end TRAVIS KELCE is back for his tenth season – and you’d be a fool to doubt him. Last year he posted career highs in receptions & touchdowns, and he is once again firmly Patrick Mahomes’ top option in the passing attack.
The WR room is inexperienced and in this season opener we can expect the Mahomes/Kelce duo to be the regular. Back the OVERS for KELCE (over 79.5 receiving yards at 5/6 & over 6.5 receptions at 5/6) and keep an eye on the BRACE at 10/3.
Last time these teams met, the Chiefs won 34-30 back in 2019 – with the Lions covering as a 7.5 underdog.
With Chris Jones out, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Lions offence make this game competitive. It’s a big ask for the young defence to keep Mahomes in check, but betting on the Lions is betting on their offence.
The points total feels over-inflated, especially for the season opener where we can expect some rust. Mahomes should slice & dice with Kelce at the heart of it all, as the Lions impress but fall short.
Score prediction: Detroit Lions 24-27 Kansas City Chiefs (Sky Bet odds: 100/1)
Odds correct at 1000 BST (05/09/23)
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