The NFL offseason has been a fascinating spectacle, with blockbuster move after blockbuster move. Oddscritic take a look at the offseason clues to assess the 2022 NFL MVP race.
The race to become NFL MVP is a season-long cliffhanger which ends with the biggest individual honour in pro football being handed out.
A few days before Super Bowl LVII in Arizona next February, we’ll find out who has been chosen as the best of the best for the 2022 season.
Before that there will be many thrills and spills along the way, as one of the most open betting races in American sports hots up.
The clues are already starting to appear as free agency continues and the Draft approaches. Many of the contenders have lost or gained valuable team-mates already, and some have even moved teams.
Here’s a rundown on the major contenders, and how the road to MVP looks for them right now:
The leading MVP contenders in 2022
Most of the names on our shortlist are quarterbacks - it’s notoriously difficult for any other position to win the award given the bias towards the passing game in today’s NFL.
Aaron Rodgers: The cards appear to be stacked against Rodgers winning the award for a third consecutive year in 2022. Not only is it tough to achieve that feat anyway, Rodgers has pretty much nobody to throw to right now. Trading Davante Adams to the Raiders took away arguably the league’s best wide receiver, and Rodgers’ main target. Green Bay has two first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft - better get some help for Aaron…
Tom Brady: Five weeks after retiring, Brady unretired and all of a sudden everything in the garden is rosy again in Tampa. Chris Godwin signed a long-term contract extension and the acquisition of Russell Gage is a really nice bit of business by the Bucs front office. Now they just need to get Gronk back in the building too. Never rule out Brady…
Josh Allen: The house is built for the Buffalo Bills to contend for a Super Bowl and for Allen to contend for MVP honours in 2022. Josh was terrific in 2021 and absolutely brilliant in that heart-breaking playoff shootout with Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. He is now the finished article, the real deal, and a worthy favourite in the early MVP betting.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes had a mixed year in 2021, at times brilliant and at times underwhelming. He is still the most exciting talent in the league when hot though, but the loss of superstar WR Tyreek Hill in a trade to Miami leaves a question mark for 2022. Can KC replace what Tyreek brought and how does his loss impact Travis Kelce? We’ll get the answers soon.
Justin Herbert: The Chargers have loaded up to capitalise on Herbert’s cheap rookie contract by trading for Khalil Mack and acquiring the best CB on the free agent market in J.C. Jackson. They also extended WR Mike Williams to ensure Herbert has the weaponry to go into the AFC West arms race with all guns blazing. The talent he possesses is undeniable, the potential is enormous and Herbert will be expected to take the next big step to post-season success in Year 3.
Joe Burrow: Came within an ace of leading Cincinnati to a Super Bowl championship in only his second year in the league, and but for a leaky offensive line he might well have pulled it off. The Bengals have since committed big resources to improve that protection for Burrow in the offseason - the acquisitions of former Dallas RT La’el Collins, Tampa guard Alex Capp and Pats center Ted Karras provide enormous upgrades. Cincy is in position to compete again in a red-hot AFC North, get the popcorn ready.
Matthew Stafford: Delivered a Super Bowl title in his first season away from the Detroit Lions, and silenced an army of doubters in the process. Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will be expected to contend again in 2022, and he has a shiny new weapon in former Bears WR Allen Robinson. The arrival of Robinson offsets the loss of Robert Woods in a trade to Tennessee. Now we wait to see if the Rams re-sign OBJ but either way Stafford should only be better in Year 2 running that Sean McVay offense.
Russell Wilson: It finally happened, the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson. Seattle is now in full rebuild mode while the Denver Broncos finally have a franchise QB to top off a talent-laden roster. Nothing less than contending for a Super Bowl will be expected in 2022 and now we wait to see if Russ still has what it takes.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson has had a couple of underwhelming years by his lofty standards since winning MVP honours in 2019. We can blame injuries and COVID partly for that, and he should be back to something like his best in 2022. Possesses a unique skillset which should also land him a massive contract extension in the near future.
Dak Prescott: The longer Dak’s career goes on, the more you feel he’s destined never to be MVP. The suspicion is he needs elite talent around him to really thrive, rather than elevating average players to his level (see Brady so often in New England). The loss of WR1 Amari Cooper to Cleveland, that torn ACL for WR2 Michael Gallup and the departure of two OL starters mean there are many questions in ‘Big D’ this offseason. Is Dak good enough to overcome them all?
Deshaun Watson: Cleveland became a Super Bowl contender overnight when Watson was traded by Houston to the Browns. The price was high - three first-round picks for the Texans and a five-year fully guaranteed contract for Watson worth a staggering $230million. A note of caution if you think the odds about him winning MVP look good though. They are probably taking into account the fact Deshaun could yet face a suspension at some stage in 2022. He has 22 civil lawsuits for alleged sexual misconduct currently hanging over him.
Derrick Henry: We should mention at least one non-quarterback here, and Henry gets the call not only for past production, but also the dynamic he provides for the Titans. Normally the QB is the most important man on the roster, the heart and soul of the team, not so in Tennessee. Instead a bulldozing ground game led by Henry means Ryan Tannehill is more game manager than game winner. The acquisition of Robert Woods to operate opposite A.J. Brown at WR should help even more. The less Henry faces eight-man fronts, the more he will thrive.
How does NFL MVP work, and who votes for it?
The first and most important thing to take into account here is that the Associated Press NFL MVP award does not factor in post-season play. It is literally all about the regular season.
The MVP award is voted for by a panel of 50 sportswriters, with the result announced the Thursday of Super Bowl week during a special NFL Awards ceremony.
Peyton Manning holds the record for MVP awards with five, while Rodgers now has four after his wins in 2020 and 2021. Brady has three successes to his credit.
You have to go back to 2012 and Vikings RB Adrian Peterson to find the last non-QB to win the award, while the last defensive player to come out on top was the great New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
It is also worth noting that a number of other media organisations also give out MVP awards at the end of the season, but the AP variety is very much the de facto, widely recognised version. It’s also the one you’ll be betting on in the UK.
