The Zurich Classic of New Orleans switches format for the first time this week and Ben Coley has tips ranging from 18/1 to 250s.
Recommended bets:
3pts win Grace & Oosthuizen at 18/1 - proven as a pairing and plenty of incentive
2pts win Thomas & Cauley at 22/1 - aggressive Alabama duo look a great match
1pt e.w. Donald & Lovemark at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - games cover all bases and both gone close here
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Spurred on perhaps by the innovation of the European Tour, combined with substandard fields and poor TV figures, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and PGA Tour officials have conjured up a new team format which can already be called a success.
In its former guise, the Zurich Classic did produce the odd high-profile winner – Bubba Watson and Justin Rose among the more notables – but it had essentially become an opportunity for a lesser-light to secure their breakthrough, such as when Brian Stuard outlasted Jamie Lovemark and Byeong-hun An in a Monday play-off one year ago.
Now a two-man team event with 80 pairs set to tee off, organisers have been rewarded with a star-studded field headed by Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, who marginally top the market from Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson, set to renew their Ryder Cup partnership at a course Rose knows well.
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While Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson are absent, Jordan Spieth makes just his second appearance in Louisiana alongside Ryan Palmer, while there are some potentially lethal combinations just behind them in the betting such as Daniel Berger and Thomas Pieters and Patricks Cantlay and Reed.
For betting purposes, my instinct is always to be cautious when approaching something new and so volatile but the limited evidence of recent World Cups – played in the same format of foursomes (R1/R3) and fourballs (R2/R4) - suggests that class should ultimately prevail.
Denmark might not be a particularly high-profile golfing nation, but their World Cup win last November couldn’t be called a surprise given the form of Thorbjorn Olesen and Soren Kjeldsen heading into the event, while an out-of-sorts US team still managed to stay on for a share of second with Japan, Australia and Spain all inside the top 10.
At the other end of the leaderboard were weak pairings from the Philippines, Venezuela, Portugal, Wales, India and Malaysia, so while the specifics of the finishing positions didn’t necessarily fall in the order many would’ve forecast, teams more or less performed close to expectations.
The same could be said of the previous World Cup played under this format, won by the top-ranked US team, and it therefore makes sense to consider those at the front of this market, with Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen readily preferred.
While both make their debuts at TPC Louisiana, it’s a Pete Dye design and Grace has already thrived on such courses despite limited opportunities, most notably when winning at Harbour Town a year ago.
Oosthuizen’s long, straight driving has to be considered a huge asset given the roll of honour at this lengthy par 72, and like Grace he’s been on the fringes of contention for much of 2017 without quite putting the pieces together, although he was mighty close in Phoenix back in February.
The chief reason for liking them here is that we know they are a formidable force both when sharing a ball and when playing their own. Back at the 2015 Presidents Cup, they combined to go 4-0-0, seeing off a quartet of classy US pairings: DJ and Spieth, Kuchar and Reed, Reed and Fowler, and detective duo Watson and Holmes.
I loved the way Grace took a lead role in Korea, despite being among the least qualified of the International side on paper, and he simply looks a born team golfer: tough, proud and capable of executing under the unique pressure of pairings play.
Oosthuizen is, in almost every sense, the opposite of Grace: quiet, unassuming, technically perfect but less intense. It’s pretty clear that they complement each other perfectly and, with another Presidents Cup on the horizon, they’ll surely be motivated to perform here.
Bar a lack of course experience, negatives begin and end with putting. Grace was very poor on the greens for much of last week’s Valero Texas Open and Oosthuizen was baffled by Augusta’s lightning surfaces, but this course has always been more about ball-striking (hence a list of poor-putting winners) and on that front perhaps only Stenson and Rose can be labelled superior to this pair.
The Europeans are respected, but Stenson has gone right off the boil and Rose will be teeing it up for the first time since a heartbreaking Augusta defeat. He dealt with what happened at the Masters with all of his customary class, but it was a serious blow and I wouldn’t be surprised were he to take some time to recover, before refocusing for the summer majors.
Day’s off-course distractions and Fowler’s abysmal Sunday at Augusta are concerns given the prices, so the biggest threat to the nominated pairing might come from Texans Spieth and Ryan Palmer, who look a nice match and are good friends.
Kevin Chappell and Gary Woodland could look seriously overpriced, but again there are some imponderables relating to how Chappell responds to a draining win in Texas and where Woodland’s game is given the more important things happening in his family life at the moment.
Tony Finau is coached by Daniel Summerhays’ brother and they rate an interesting team at 50/1 – they’re another twosome with very different skills and perhaps the consistency of Summerhays will work nicely with Finau’s undoubted scoring prowess.
However, at similar odds and with similar make-ups I much prefer the course credentials of Luke Donald and Jamie Lovemark.
Donald loves a Dye layout, even if he must be growing fed up of finishing second at Harbour Town, and he was inside the top 10 on both visits here in 2011 and 2012.
Granted, he was at the top of his game then but combine that course form with his outstanding record in Ryder Cup pairs play, particularly foursomes, and he becomes an interesting contender having showcased his form as recently as a fortnight ago.
That Lovemark brings power to the table is of particular interest and I put him up for this event last year on the strength of some eye-catching Dye form, a decision he vindicated by going down in a play-off to Stuard, who didn’t miss a single putt inside 10 feet all week.
Lovemark hasn’t had the best of seasons but he doesn’t look far away, and playing alongside a partner who can get up and down from anywhere and is so easy to get along with should guarantee that he’s fully focused for this return to the scene of his standout PGA Tour performance.
Seung-hul Noh impressed when winning the Zurich Classic three years ago and is interesting alongside An, who was second on his sole visit, beaten in the same play-off as Lovemark.
You can rest assured An in particular will be fired up given his recent war-of-words with two less-able American players concerning the world rankings, but Noh will take some carrying on recent form and that’s enough to put me off.
Harris English has won the 54-hole Franklin Templeton Shootout twice - another two-man team event albeit with quirkier formats - and will relish teeing up with close friend and lookalike Hudson Swafford, whose victory at the CareerBuilder included two rounds on a Dye-designed course.
Similarly, Brendan Steele and Keegan Bradley are two pals with course form, they too have combined to win the FT Shootout, and their putting issues aren’t too much of a worry here.
Clearly, there are options galore at bigger prices but I’ll return towards the top of the market where Justin Thomas and Bud Cauley get the vote at 22/1.
Cauley frustrated his backers – of whom few are more loyal than me – with a stop-start T10 last week, but that’s back-to-back top-10 finishes from a seriously-talented player whose career is firmly back on track.
He boasts Dye form courtesy of ninth at Harbour Town and a share of third at the CareerBuilder, while he finished 11th on his latest start at TPC Louisiana in 2014.
Winning machine Thomas hit the ball beautifully at Augusta last time, was 12th here in 2015, and also finished fifth on the Web.com Tour on his only other start in Louisiana.
You can rest assured both these Alabama graduates will have plenty of support from the Crimson Tide and it’s also of some significance that they play a similar ball – Cauley the Pro V1, Thomas the Pro V1 X – although they’re hardly unique on that front.
Even so, Thomas currently leads the PGA Tour in birdie average and alongside an in-form partner looks overpriced in what should develop into a real shootout.
Finally, I can’t resist a small play on Louisiana locals John Peterson and Andrew Loupe.
Peterson is a brilliant ball-striker who has rededicated himself and with some results this season, while Loupe is long, aggressive and volatile.
It could make for a disaster, but if Loupe is on a going week he can make birdies with the best of them and I can see him being given the opportunity to shine in fourballs in particular, with Peterson likely to stay out of trouble even after a couple of disappointing weeks.
Both have the expected ties to this event – Peterson was T8 on an invite in 2013, while Loupe made his PGA Tour debut here (note: Kevin Chappell’s pro PGA Tour debut came in the Texas Open, which he won last week).
Local ties have revealed themselves in previous editions, which makes sense as this is the only PGA Tour stop in Louisiana, and the fact that Loupe was 11th in birdie average last season tells you plenty about his game.
If – and it’s an almighty if – he turns up in the form which saw him share 10th two starts back, he could propel the partnership into contention at a huge 250/1.
Posted at 1314 BST on 25/04/17.
