Martin Mathews takes a look at the Genesis Invitational with the third round to finish and the final round to play and he's keen on a 14/1 chance in-running.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational, in-play (after day three)
1pt e.w Wyndham Clark to win Genesis Invitational at 14/1 (1/5 1,2,3 General)
It was a bizarre day at Riviera CC on Saturday as gusting winds of up to 35mph saw play suspended in otherwise perfect weather conditions.
With balls oscillating on greens, which were running at 13 on the stimpmeter, and the risk of falling debris being a danger to the players and officials, the powers that be felt they had no choice to call a halt to proceedings at just after 10am local time and just as the overnight leader Sam Burns was about to hit his first tee shot.
In the end the delay lasted just under four hours with players finally getting back on the course at 2pm.
When the resumption came the players were faced with hugely challenging conditions with the winds, although having abated slightly, still a considerable factor, and the greens showing little sign of having slowed despite having been watered during the suspension. As a result when darkness finally put a stop to play for the day at just after 5.30pm local time Riviera was heading for its highest third round scoring average in over 30yrs.
So with the leaders still having holes to play on Sunday to finish of their third rounds lets try and get our heads around the state of play.
At the top of proceedings we still have Sam Burns who having started Saturday with a five shot lead courtesy of his first two days brilliance now has a two shot advantage through 13 holes on 10- under.
For most of Saturday Burns was coping with the conditions well and a succession of pars on the front nine, which included a miracle save on the par three sixth, was keeping the pack pretty much at bay, however mistakes on 12 and 13 saw the 24yr old go in to reverse and he would have been relieved to hear the hooter go as he prepared to tackle the tough par three 14th.
Behind Burns on 8- under is Matt Fitzpatrick who after a rollercoaster day including seven birdies and four bogeys is heading for the low round of the day with just the 18th to play.
On 7- under we then have three players Wyndham Clark who is through 15 holes and Dustin Johnson and Max Homa who have work to do on the 14th, while Patrick Cantlay who has found the bunker of the tee on the par 5 17th sits a further shot back on 6- under through 16 holes.
There is no doubt the suspension for the day came at just the right time for Burns as there was a real possibility that another 20-30 minutes of play could have seen the wheels come completely off his round. He now however gets to regroup and play his remaining five holes in conditions, which you would expect to be calmer and slightly softer, all be it cool, when play resumes early on Sunday at 6.50am local time.
How Burns handles his initial tee shot on the tricky 14th could to a certain extent be dictated by what he sees happening ahead of him on the green as world number one Dustin Johnson faces a 17ft putt for par straight out of the gates. If he rolls this in the pressure will go on to Burns, however if Johnson misses he will slip four back.
Looking at the final five holes Burns has to play while they should play easier as a whole than they were on Saturday, only the par 5 17th can be seen as a bona fide birdie opportunity, while the closing hole, the only hole Fitzpatrick has left, is the toughest ranked in round three. From that point of view while Burns has an opportunity to put some daylight between himself and the rest on Sunday morning my suspicion is he will struggle to do so.
Burns is undoubtedly a huge talent who has been knocking on the door for a while now and having been no stranger to being at the business end of leaderboards going in to Sunday you would expect him to be getting more comfortable in this environment. The fact remains though he has struggled recently on Sundays, shooting 75 at the Farmers and 73 last week at Pebble, and he is not for me going in to today at a general 3/1.
While Johnson will understandably still be many peoples fancy to reel Burns in with so many imponderables going in to today I am loathed to get involved on anyone on a ‘win only’ basis, however the player who does make some appeal to me each way is Wyndham Clark.
With his superb touch on the greens and his consistently strong scoring on the par fives the big hitting Clark has been perfectly equipped to handle this weeks challenges and the hope is he can pick up one more birdie on the par five 17th coming in, a hole he has birdied on each of the first two days.
Clark has served his time at the top of leaderboards on Sundays over the past couple of years and having come so close in Bermuda at the back end of last year the next step is for him to go on and bag his first victory. Granted a win in this stage is a big ask for your first tour title, however with three each way places on offer we have a safety net.
It’s Clark for me then at 14/1 however I will keep the stakes small and sit back and enjoy what should be a fascinating final day.
Published at 0925 GMT on 21/02/21
