Golf betting tips: Barracuda Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Barracuda Championship

2.5pts e.w. Gary Woodland at 25/1 (Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Ryan Moore at 33/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Brendan Steele at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Chesson Hadley at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Michael Gellerman at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Nick Watney at 250/1 (Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Barracuda Championship is unique on the PGA Tour because of its modified stableford scoring system, which means players earn or lose points according to their score on each hole. Fire in an albatross and you'll earn eight points, an eagle equals five, there are two for a birdie, none for a par, and you lose if you go beyond that: one for a bogey, three for anything worse.

In the simplest terms possible, this means nine birdies and nine bogeys in a level-par 71 at Old Greenwood, which hosted for the first time last year, equals nine points. A similar 71 made up solely of pars would earn zero, while an albatross, two eagles, seven bogeys and eight pars equals 11. At least I think it would.

Come the end of the week, chances are the best stroke play total will have accrued the most points, which was the case last year for all that Richy Werenski's traditional score was matched by the two who shared third. The important thing to remember, though, is that the scoring system can draw different shots from players than might have been chosen without it. There is cause and effect at play here, and it is hard for anyone to turn down the chance to go for the green on all three short par-fours, such is the reward for an eagle.

Indeed it was an eagle at the 16th hole on Sunday which saw Werenski take over from Troy Merritt and it almost goes without saying that such volatility has to be accepted. Merritt could've won the tournament by shooting the same final-round score in a more dramatic way, but the 14 pars he marked down were too many.

If anything ties these two together, it's that despite Merritt's finish they're both streaky and make a lot of birdies: Werenski finished just outside the top 50 of 200 or so PGA Tour players in birdie average last season, and Merritt, who once won a million dollars after a season-long competition which rewarded birdies and eagles, was as high as 10th the previous one. They're also fairly neat, tidy types, and power certainly isn't vital at a funky course which sits at altitude in California, close to the Nevada border and former venue Montreux.

That said, by far the standout bet here happens to boast as much power as he does class and it's GARY WOODLAND, one of just three major winners in the field and the only one to have done so within the last decade and change.

• Click here to back Woodland with Sky Bet

Indeed it's little more than two years since Woodland won the US Open here in California, and although his presence in this field rather than in Memphis demonstrates it's been a largely unsuccessful spell, the return of some pretty significant injury issues has been the main reason.

Now seemingly healthy once more things have started to improve and while lacking consistency, this is a player who has made the cut in three majors from four, finished sixth behind Jordan Spieth in Texas, fifth behind Rory McIlroy in North Carolina, and last time out played in the final group at the 3M Open.

There have been issues when in the mix, likely owing to some technical changes, but Woodland has been second with a round to go in two of his last eight starts and was seventh at the same stage in the PGA Championship. Already this is form of a high standard in this grade, and it could easily look better still.

The numbers behind his upturn in fortunes are also encouraging. Woodland's two best driving performances of the season have come in his last six starts, he did everything well at the 3M Open, where his iron play looked close, and a session with Phil Kenyon the week before helped conjure improvement in his putting, which had been decent anyway.

"The putter's felt as good as it has in a long time," he said in Minnesota. "Seeing putts go in has been huge, but I'm also starting to hit the golf ball well, I'm starting to control my irons, drive the golf ball semi in play the last couple days. But I'm feeling pretty good about my game compared to where I've been the last year and a half. I've got a long way to go, but when I trust what I'm doing, I'm pretty good."

Always understated, you might be put off by that comment about having a way to go, but I'm not. Woodland is simply a cut above most of these and I'm a firm believer in levels: when players of his calibre drop down, they become dangerous. We saw it with Branden Grace and Joel Dahmen earlier this year and we've seen it many times in the past.

Indeed we've seen it thanks to Woodland, who has played in this event twice, and been beaten by a grand total of one player. On debut he won, leading after every round, and on his return he was fifth at the end of round one, and progressed to finish runner-up. His form coming into the victory was poor; ahead of the second, it was very similar to what we see today, right down to having faded following a strong 54 holes in his preceding start.

In the last decade these two editions of what's now called the Barracuda are the only events he's played at this level, and he's been first and second. With a place in the FedEx Cup Playoffs up for grabs and knowing that victory here in 2013 was followed by second place in The Barclays and a run all the way to East Lake, thus earning him a Masters spot, Woodland is a strong fancy to stamp his class over this tournament for all that his chance would've been even more obvious at Montreux.

Maverick McNealy is a talented, improving, in-form Californian who could progress way beyond this level, but 18/1 seems short enough. Collin Morikawa won this at only a slightly shorter price price, Viktor Hovland likewise in Puerto Rico early last year, and you'd want to feel McNealy is on his way to the very top to be getting stuck in at odds which mean barely doubling your money should he place.

With Mito Pereira arriving from Tokyo and Emiliano Grillo incredibly frustrating, Branden Grace has fewer questions to answer than most of the market leaders despite a disappointing fortnight of links golf. Grace was contending in this event last year when Covid-19 forced his withdrawal, and it would be quite like the gritty South African to get his own back.

However there might just be a bit more value in Las Vegas resident RYAN MOORE, who was runner-up two starts ago and showed equally encouraging signs with his ball-striking despite a missed cut at the 3M Open.

• Click here to back Moore with Sky Bet

Moore is his own man and plays a light schedule, seemingly content in who he is, not expecting to make another Ryder Cup team, happy to earn a good living. In fact after finishing second at the John Deere Classic he declined the invite to play in the Open Championship, instead keeping his commitment to a family holiday. Last year he decided not to play in the PGA.

To back him with any confidence at this stage in his career probably requires two things: weak company in which his five PGA Tour wins demonstrate a level of class, and a course which rewards arguably the most accurate driver in the field, and it looks like he has both. Certainly, three of the first four home last year were among the 10 most accurate drivers in the field, and this is a more fiddly course than Montreux.

Moore's form on such layouts includes two wins in the CIMB Classic, where each time Woodland was second, one at the John Deere Classic, and his breakthrough at the Wyndham Championship some 12 years ago. The other title on his CV came in neighbouring Nevada, where he's lived for a long time now, and in turn provides some form at altitude which is definitely a factor to consider.

All five titles came from August to the first week in November, and none of them featured a stacked field. Since the last of them he's also lost a pair of play-offs, both of which came in this narrow window from late-summer to autumn, on tight, tree-lined courses, and one of them right here in California.

With his approach play firing, particularly in the second round of the 3M Open, Moore might be a good putting week from improving on last year's tie for 12th here (led ball-striking, accuracy and all-around stats). That was his first go under these scoring conditions since The International in 2006 and he'll be all the better for it, which makes him appear capable of going close and climbing from 140th to inside the top 125 in FedEx Cup points for good measure.

Moore hasn't missed the Playoffs so far in his career, a run of 14 years. If he's to make it 15, only two chances remain and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to take one of them.

It is that time of year when points are on the minds of so many players and from 128th in the standings, CHESSON HADLEY is another who could take care of a lot of problems with one big week.

Hadley ought to have things sewn up already having blown a golden opportunity to win the Palmetto Championship, but to his credit he's shown more in five subsequent starts than he had those previous in what had been a very poor run.

At the John Deere Classic he fired an opening 63 to lead, he was ninth after round one last time in the 3M Open, and while it was a red-hot putter which almost carried him to a second PGA Tour win, since then he's found improvements in his long-game. Last time out he produced his best strokes-gained approach numbers since the 2019 Shriners, that event which takes place next door in Nevada.

Hadley's record in the Shriners is really good, with three top-sevens and an active streak of 13 sub-70 rounds, whereas he struggled in a couple of tries at Montreux. Perhaps then it's no surprise he was glad to try a new course and there was plenty to like about 17th place here last year, at a time when his form had far less substance to it.

Ninth in birdie average last season, he's further down this time but still well above average among this field and his putter has become a real weapon. Previously that had been his iron play, so if he can build on what happened in Minnesota, perhaps marrying that with the putting he produced closer to home in South Carolina, then he's the sort to create scoring fireworks in a format which should suit.

Hadley's sole win on the PGA Tour came in an opposite event, he's won at altitude in Boise, and his sole major top-10 finish came here in California. Providing he can drive the ball to a reasonable standard he looks a big runner at a big price.

• Click here to back Hadley with Sky Bet

BRENDAN STEELE is the last of my realistic selections and again a touch of class goes along way to explaining this one, as he's a three-time PGA Tour winner who has gone mighty close to adding to his tally over the last couple of years.

Two of those wins came here in California, where Steele was born. In fact he's from Idyllwild, which is around 1500m above sea level, so in a sense it's not surprising that he was eighth on his debut in this event, fourth on his second try, seventh in 2015 and fifth in 2016.

That's an excellent return from just seven attempts, the latest of which was a low-key debut here last summer. At the time he was in reasonable form but despite the absence of strokes-gained data, it looks like he had a bad week on the greens. That happens, and given his form under similar conditions at Montreux, Summerlin and even in Phoenix, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Two starts ago Steele hit the ball really well at the Travellers, before making the cut in the Open, and he's never been one whose recent finishing positions tell us all we need to know. In fact he's what you might call a horses-for-courses player, and if this does turn out to be one he can operate at, 66/1 could look huge. The fact he scored 13 points in the final round, bettered by just two players, bodes well.

• Click here to back Steele with Sky Bet

Speculative options are plentiful, from the potential of Akshay Bhatia and Will Gordon to the signs of encouragement shown by former world number one Luke Donald plus fellow veterans Cameron Percy and Josh Teater. Last off my list though (and the only one I considered seriously) was David Lingmerth, who has suddenly found form to finish 11th and 28th on his last two starts and is accurate from the tee.

Preference though is for MICHAEL GELLERMAN and NICK WATNEY at the prices.

Gellerman's approach play has been a revelation lately and now he really could put it to use in weaker company. He ranked third at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 12th at the John Deere, was just as good in two rounds at the Barbasol, then led the field in the 3M Open.

Anyone hitting their irons like this has to be worth a second glance, and it's of note that he's from Tuscon, Arizona, which is at decent altitude, and grew up under similar conditions in Kansas. Perhaps that explains why among a smattering of good performances, T3 in Colorado, where desert specialist Martin Laird went to college, really does stand out.

• Click here to back Gellerman with Sky Bet

Sixth in greens and 32nd in strokes-gained approach for the season, he's a neat, tidy type who needs some putts to drop to make an impact. That's a chance worth taking and while we focus on the top 125 in FedEx Cup points, remember the top 200 are guaranteed a run at Korn Ferry Tour Finals. Gellerman is 197th and this is a chance to guarantee his place there, safeguarding his career in the process.

Watney meanwhile featured in my 3M Open preview, when 500/1 was a standout price and the more general 300/1 was considered perfectly acceptable. That was in a field headed by the likes of Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed and Watney was bang on the premises for much of the week, before fading to 34th.

Given how poor he'd been prior to this revival it's perhaps no wonder he wasn't able to stick around, but he might just manage it in this sort of grade, especially with his approach play (eighth) having underpinned his performance there. Had he putted to the levels of his previous two starts, he'd have likely threatened the top 10 and perhaps even placed.

Seven appearances in this event show three top-10 finishes and Watney, another Californian, has been runner-up at Summerlin, to go with a win at Torrey Pines, second at Pebble Beach, and various other strong finishes close to home. He's not that player anymore, but three cuts made in three, improvements in his long-game and his comfort levels at altitude are enough to speculate that he has a big week in him.

• Click here to back Watney with Sky Bet

Posted at 1610 BST on 03/08/21

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