Ben Coley fancies Aaron Wise to go well in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, where Hudson Swafford is one of several outsiders worth a bet.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Aaron Wise at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Carlos Ortiz at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Hudson Swafford at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Jonas Blixt at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Jordan Spieth is on detention as a high-class field heads to Las Vegas and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, the first event of the 2019 season which is both in the United States and can boast a handful of genuinely top-class players.
After failing to meet his obligations to the Tour last term, Spieth has added this and next week's Mayakoba Classic to his end-of-year schedule and it's rare to see him priced bigger than Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler, both of whom have form at TPC Summerlin but continue to frustrate in the heat of battle.
Finau was unfortunate last week, Xander Schauffele's run of birdies enough to deny him in a play-off, but until he starts to win with a degree of frequency he surely can't be backed at 11/1. Last year he faded to a closing 72 here and there's another issue - jetting in from China asks a big question, particularly after an emotionally draining experience.
Fowler, Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau, on the other hand, make their first starts since the Ryder Cup, one which ended in defeat for all three. It's hard to muster a case for any of them although it's possible to argue that the market is upside down, with DeChambeau and Spieth much the more clinical. Still, Finau and Fowler being too short doesn't make DeChambeau and Spieth too big and the message is that they help shape a really nice market.
It's understandable that last week's Sanderson Farms Championship hasn't been given much credence in terms of a form guide, with only winner Cameron Champ vaulted forwards in the market. It was a fairly low-grade event, after all. That said, with Champ winning and various highly promising players in contention, I wonder if it's being underestimated and am prepared to speculate that we might see form carry over quite nicely.
That was the case last year, Chesson Hadley, Beau Hossler and Patton Kizzire all producing back-to-back top-10 finishes, and perhaps Sam Burns can underline his abundant potential by going close once more.
In 14 PGA Tour starts over the last year or so, Burns has picked up a great deal of experience and offered strong evidence that he's ready to win very soon. Last week's third rates his best finish, but he's also been sixth, eighth and 12th, the latter pair in very strong company in Florida.
Burns played with and impressed Tiger Woods at the Honda Classic, beating the 14-time major winner on his own turf in finishing an excellent eighth, which in turn earned him an invite to the Valspar Championship which resulted in 12th place. It's no wonder he was the name on everyone's lips at the time.
Since then, he's gone and won on the Web.com Tour and while in-and-out, he's strung big weeks together in a manner which suggests his performance in Mississippi can serve as a strong guide to his chances here.
It's hugely beneficial that he's had a spin around TPC Summerlin, even if changes have been made to the course since Burns finished 20th last year thanks to the sort of strong driving, solid putting combination which has proven to be an excellent pointer of late.
All sorts can win here - see Rod Pampling's defeat of Brooks Koepka and an out-of-nowhere success for Ben Martin as evidence - but with bunkers moved to meet the realities of the modern game, I suspect power will prove even more of a weapon than when rookie Smylie Kaufman blasted his way to victory in 2015.
Just like Kaufman, Burns is a high-class LSU graduate who makes his money off the tee and he managed to finish third last week despite an abysmal putting performance. The flat stick was a strength when he first made TV coverage in the spring and any upturn from Jackson should see him go well.
One of the coolest moments of my life getting to see the comeback first hand! Incredible to see @TigerWoods get the W today pic.twitter.com/wbo7poUnNc
— Sam Burns (@Samburns66) September 23, 2018
I'll come back to some others who caught the eye in the Sanderson Farms later, but next on my list is another quality young player, Aaron Wise.
Here we have the youngest winner on the PGA Tour last season and one who first came to prominence when 10th here in 2016, a performance which must have had something to do with the fact that he now resides Vegas and practices at Summerlin, where his coach is based.
At the time, Wise had no status and was playing on invites and that underlines the speed of his progression, given that he went on to win on the Web.com Tour in 2017 and then won a shootout for the Byron Nelson last spring, having finished second to Jason Day on his previous start.
As is typical of many young, aggressive players, Wise also missed a succession of cuts last season but sixth at Firestone and fifth in the first FedEx Cup Playoff event are performances which confirm that he's increasingly comfortable going toe-to-toe with the game's elite, a group he seems certain to join.
All of his best form has come when his long, excellent driving is particularly beneficial so it's a positive that two of the last three winners of this event led in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and at 12th in birdie average in what was his first season on the PGA Tour a shootout is ideal.
Cantlay won in nine-under last year, but that was due to swirling winds and cool temperatures and this week's forecast suggests a return to better conditions. Prior to Cantlay's success, something around the 20-under mark represented a realistic target and Wise's wins so far have come in -23 and -21.
The first of them, on the Web.com Tour, came at the expense of Beau Hossler and that remains indicative of the fact that Wise is just one or two steps further along the road than his equally capable contemporary for the time being.
With ties to the course and some good golf to end last season, including a strong driving display in Georgia, Wise looks to hold an excellent chance if his preparation has gone to plan. As it's taken place here in Summerlin, that seems a fair assumption.
Back to last week and the performance of Anders Albertson was very similar to that of Burns and he's respected as a result. However, the lack of a spin at the course is slightly worrying and tilts the scales towards the talented Carlos Ortiz.
This Mexican has found consistency since becoming a dad, the one thing which had eluded him previously and ultimately forced a return to the Web.com Tour, where he was a three-time winner in 2014.
He's made every cut since a top-10 finish in Kansas this summer and everything came together for third place last week, where he was 11th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and eighth in putting.
Those statistics outweigh any concerns that a final-round 64 to charge through the pack is some sort of red herring and he looks to be getting back to his very best, which makes him a player to keep a close eye on over the next fortnight in particular.
The fact that he was 18th here on his sole start four years ago, leading the field in putting having arrived in poor form, is also encouraging and at fancy prices it's worth speculating that he'll be one of those to carry over the good work from last week.
There's a case for Martin Laird, a former winner and play-off loser here, after he was seventh in Jackson. It's also easy to see where the money for J.J. Spaun and Scott Piercy is coming from while Brendan Steele has found his long-game again, hails from California and has some solid form here.
Steele in particular is worthy of respect and could go well if the putter warms up while, bizarrely, it's concerns over Si Woo Kim's long-game which keep him out of the staking plan as his putter continues to fire. He's made 46 birdies in two starts this year and is always worth a glance at big prices.
From those who nearly made it to those who did, with Hudson Swafford considered a fascinating contender.
Swafford has winning form in the desert, his sole PGA Tour victory having come in last year's CareerBuilder Challenge in a score of 20-under, and he has excuses when it comes to understanding why he's not quite kicked on from that as expected.
Last year he was struggling with injury throughout spring, eventually taking a six-week break during which he says he never touched a club, and it's interesting that on his return he said the goal was "to be 100 per cent come October."
Since missing the cut at the Greenbrier, his first start back, Swafford has made six in a row and things at last looked to be clicking last week as he gained strokes in every department en route to 26th place in the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Swafford was fifth at halfway there and seventh at halfway at the Barracuda in August, a tournament which is also played in Nevada, while he also caught the eye when sitting fifth through 54 holes of a strong RBC Canadian Open.
All of this is very similar to what he was doing before that first victory, as Swafford made cut upon cut, flirting with contention, before piecing it all together at a golf course which played to his all-around strengths.
Summerlin, where he's broken par in nine of his 10 rounds, looks a good fit and he's a big price for a player of huge talent who is soon to become a dad.
Given the above cases, Corey Conners obviously comes under consideration. The Canadian asked big questions of Champ last week and is around five-times the price here, which looks generous. That said, having been married before the Sanderson Farms and then contended on Sunday, I wonder whether he might empty and he's left out as a result.
Instead, I'll throw a genuine dart in the direction of Jonas Blixt, with anything bigger than 200/1 well worth taking.
Blixt is a dynamite putter who was third here in 2012 and also contended in Reno at the Barracuda Championship a few years later, confirming that desert golf at altitude is a challenge he can meet.
He's been largely out of sorts since, a far cry from the player who contended for both the PGA Championship and the Masters, but four cuts made in succession on the PGA Tour catches the eye - it's the first time he's achieved that lowly ambition in over two years.
Form of 33-35 so far this season, both in events which favoured the long ball, catches the eye and while strong driving is definitely the starting point at Summerlin, we've seen some of the best putters on the circuit go really well here in recent years.
Certainly, this course offers hope for everyone and Blixt, whose putter carried him almost to the title here six years ago, is capable of causing an upset.
Finally, a mention for Shintaro Ban as a potential option in the top-10 or top-20 markets. This UNLV prospect, who qualified for the US Open earlier this year before struggling in the event itself, has featured in the top 10 of the World Amateur Golf Rankings and looks like he has a big future.
Last year saw Scott Strohmeyer finish fourth in the Sanderson Farms before local A.J. McInerney was 10th here and then John Oda took eighth in Mexico. Ban, who presumably has some local knowledge to put to use, is one player who could produce a similarly impressive performance.
Another might be Cole Nygren, a 23-year-old who qualified for this on Monday having come up a shot shy last year. Having grown up on a farm in Colorado, Nygren knows all about playing at altitude and it was a strong field on Monday, with the likes of Dylan Frittelli, Tom Lovelady, Ricky Barnes and Aaron Baddeley all coming up short.
Again, we're not really talking about a serious title prospect here - a fact underlined by 1000/1 quotes - but these end-of-year shootouts can throw up all kinds of strange things, including hitherto unknowns working their way into the top 10.
Posted at 1135 GMT on 30/10/18.
