Golf betting tips: PLAYERS Championship specials
4pts Russell Henley to finish in the top 40 at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Christiaan Bezuidenhout top SA & Alex Noren top Swede at 5.9/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Sky Bet odds - TEN places on outright bets | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Top South African player
CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT has made his way to the top of the betting among the South Africans and that's precisely where he deserves to be following seventh place at the weekend.
This three-time European Tour winner again showcased his elite short-game as he kept tabs on the leaders until the final couple of holes on Sunday where he gave away three shots and sacrificed what would've been his first top-five finish in the USA. Still, it was a personal best, building on a top-20 the previous year, although he might have bettered both at Sawgrass last March having opened with a round of 65.
One year on, and with two more wins under his belt, Bezuidenhout ought to have eyes on another lucrative week and there are sufficient doubts surrounding his rivals here to make 15/8 look like a good price.
Louis Oosthuizen would probably have headed the market but for skipping Bay Hill, where he withdrew on the morning of the first round. That suggests it wasn't precautionary and the 2010 Open champion, who looked uncomfortable warming up, has always been prone to fitness struggles. He's now easy to oppose at a course where he owns a mixed record.
Charl Schwartzel's ball-striking just isn't of the required standard these days and Dylan Frittelli hasn't done anything so far in 2021, which leaves Branden Grace as the potential danger. A brave, brilliant winner in Puerto Rico, Grace has never missed the cut here, but neither has he really been a factor and he admitted during the Arnold Palmer Invitational that he's running on fumes after a draining start to the year both on and off the course.
Bezuidenhout hasn't missed a cut since the Scottish Open and should prove the best of this bunch unless Oosthuizen's condition has improved over the course of the last week.
PLAYERS Championship outright preview
Top Swedish player
It's a sign of the times that Henrik Stenson finds himself as the outsider of three to be the top Swede, and rightly so. The veteran major champion is in the midst of a terrible run of form, to the extent that the Ryder Cup looks like a pipe dream and he likely won't be representing Sweden at the Olympics, where he took silver back in 2016.
Given that he's missed cuts in the Dubai Desert Classic and at Bay Hill, it seems unlikely he'll find a sudden return to form at another course he likes, and that should leave the way clear for ALEX NOREN to get the better of debutant Henrik Norlander just as he did last week.
Noren has been 10th and 17th in just three starts at Sawgrass, a course which has been compared to Le Golf National, where he won the Open de France and played so well in the Ryder Cup. He's also made four cuts in five to start the year and his own prospects of keeping his Ryder Cup spot may not be over yet if he continues to improve, which he's certainly done over the last year.
Norlander has shown flashes, not least when contending at Torrey Pines, but he has been quiet since. Behind Noren the last twice, he now arrives at Sawgrass, where experience is massive. Noren is a former member of the world's top 10 who deserves to be a stronger favourite at a course we know he enjoys.
Top 40 finish
Asked for a banker, I would say RUSSELL HENLEY finishing in the top 40 at 7/4 looks as good as anything and he goes into the staking plan.
Shortlisted at 100/1 in the outright market, Henley is an ideal type for this if he can get the putter rolling and he boasts an under-par scoring average at Sawgrass, to go with an excellent record in general on Pete Dye courses.
He's managed a top-40 finish in 12 of his last 14 starts, many of them out on the west coast where he's less comfortable, and he's three-from-seven here. Never has he arrived with his approach play as strong as it is now and I expect him to land this bet with something to spare.
If you can't get on at 5/4 or bigger, try the more common top 10 or top 20 markets where he looks good value or else consider him each-way in the top American market, which isn't necessarily as strong as it may appear.
Others to consider
There's been money for EMILIANO GRILLO this week and it's easy to see why: he boasts an outstanding long game and has been playing really well again for a while now. With a strong record here (MC-11-37-26, although +3 in round one last year) he was one I wanted to side with, but the top South American market is dominated by Joaquin Niemann and he's going to be hard to beat.
Once you throw in Jhonattan Vegas, second last time out and third when last he played in this, and the solid Sebastian Munoz, it looks a trappy little heat and 3/1 about Grillo isn't quite tempting enough. The same goes for the revised 5/1 that he finishes inside the top 20; he would've been of interest at the opening 13/2 but now looks short enough.
JAMES HAHN plays tough courses well and arrives in eye-catching form, his approach play now as good as it has ever been. For those reasons he was another I looked at for a route into the sub-markets but I have to concede that his record in Florida is abysmal. So far he's played in 23 tournaments and his best is 23rd, and while pound-for-pound his share of 30th here in 2015 suggests he might quite like Sawgrass, 10/1 for a top-20 finish in this ultra-competitive event isn't quite enough.
Finally, if you do want to play RORY MCILROY in some way then you have to consider the first-round lead at a standout 33/1 or 25/1 generally, or else back him to win his day one three-ball.
McIlroy has 28 first-round leads in a career of just over 300 events, including two already this year. A notoriously fast starter, 14 of these leads have been solo, i.e. no dead-heat deductions, and it's clear to anyone watching he's got a really low one in the locker at the moment for all the quiet rounds are proving costly.
Ultimately that's not the sort of price bracket I look to in the most volatile market there is and it's not one I'll be playing this week, given the size of the field, the fact that there doesn't look like being a draw bias, and a fairly even split between AM and PM starters here down the years.
In other words it looks almost anyone's, which is enough to avoid McIlroy and the handful who appealed to some degree at bigger odds.
Posted at 1630 GMT on 09/03/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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