Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for Made In Himmerland

Golf betting tips: Made In Himmerland final round

2pt double Armitage and Scrivener to win their two-balls at 23/10 (BetVictor)

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Bernd Wiesberger remains on course to defend his title in the Made In Himmerland and is on the face of it a very fair price with 18 holes to play.

The Austrian is a seven-time winner on the European Tour, and he's been a good front-runner. Those two factors, combined with a lack of winning pedigree among the chasing pack, made odds of 6/5 appear more than reasonable and the most likely outcome appears to be that he remains in the lead turning for home, before taking the back-nine apart as he tends to here.

There is, though, a lot riding on it. Wiesberger was in Paris as an invited spectator in 2018, watching on as Europe won the Ryder Cup and surely wondering if he would ever get his chance. Now, having found form just as points earned in Europe have been doubled in value, he is 18 holes away from putting himself in position to potentially make Padraig Harrington's side.

Whatever happens, there will be work still to do. But he certainly won't make the side without winning for the first time since a brilliant 2019 campaign, and he may not have a better chance than this. Anecdotally, the Made In Denmark has been a significant part of Ryder Cup build-up for a while now, Thomas Pieters winning it to force Darren Clarke's hand in 2016 before Matt Wallace thought he'd done the same two years later, only for Thomas Bjorn to wisely side with the greater experience of Sergio Garcia.

This time there are four months to go until Whistling Straits and the pressure is reduced, but for Wiesberger it may not feel like that, and the Ryder Cup is not the only thing he's playing for. This is the second event of three which will provide a group of European Tour qualifiers for the US Open next month, while at 65th in the world he'll be looking for a return to the top 50, which he dropped out of for the first time in almost two years just ahead of the Masters.

All of the above plus a careless three-putt at the 18th hole on Saturday, which saw his lead over Alex Bjork halved to a single stroke, is enough to leave the likeable Austrian alone at a short price — although those who followed pre-tournament advice to back Bjork at 100/1 may wish to fire a cover shot and have both members of the final group on-side.

Bjork estimates he's played close to 50 rounds at Himmerland, and he's certainly missed in the right spots which is important when you're as errant as he can sometimes be from the tee. His short-game helped salvage a couple of important late pars and while shaky at times from close-range, there are few in this field more likely to hole from 15 or more feet and he could in theory be a frustrating opponent should this develop into a head-to-head.

The worry is he's been in the top two with a round to play four times on the European Tour, and on each occasion has shot 71, three of those being his worst round of the week. The exception was at the 2018 British Masters, where he did play well in difficult conditions, while his China Open win was from a single stroke behind, but he's ultimately far less decorated and not as good a golfer as his playing partner and couldn't be backed with any real confidence at 3/1.

From three behind, Laurie Canter should see this as a decent opportunity to earn a deserved breakthrough. His supreme driving means that he has four or five genuine eagle holes — the fifth and eighth, both par-fives, but also the driveable 14th and 17th holes, plus the long 11th — and a seven-under 64 in round three could have been lower still.

He's the biggest threat ahead of Kurt Kitayama, who unlike Canter has twice won at this level, and who has got better as the week has progressed following a long trip from the PGA Championship. Kitayama made a couple of silly mistakes during the first round, not quite coping as well as Wiesberger with the jet lag, but only Bjork has outscored him since and he's another with the power to pick apart those scoring holes before surviving the last.

Matthias Schwab might find things coming easier to him now out of the spotlight, although that wasn't the case at The Belfry, and the bottom line is one of the final twosome will probably win. I'll be hoping for Bjork but expecting Wiesberger, who is four from six with a clear lead at this level, one of those coming here when a final-round 66 was enough to fend off Robert MacIntyre in 2019.

For a bet, MARCUS ARMITAGE looks banker material against Suradit Yongcharoenchai, the young Thai who is yet to establish himself on the European Tour and will likely struggle a little from a share of 14th.

Armitage has plenty of course experience and has been a consistent feature on leaderboards since early in 2020. He was shortlisted for this on account of some strong ball-striking stats despite a missed cut in the British Masters, and nobody in the field has made fewer than his three bogeys so far this week.

Saturday's blemish-free 66 put the popular Englishman on the fringes of the top 10 and with no real designs on the title, expect him to freewheel inside that mark and perhaps threaten the top five if his approach play continues to fire as it has so far. His opponent meanwhile could struggle, having relied heavily on his short-game, and prices in the region of 8/13 really do not overestimate the favourite here.

I'll advise a double with JASON SCRIVENER, who finished a sneaky and excellent 23rd in the PGA Championship and might be setting himself up for a good summer.

Scrivener took 10 weeks off before the British Masters and has played just five tournaments prior to this one in 2021, so while there might ordinarily be a slight concern he'll tail off having flown in from South Carolina, he should be plenty fresh enough.

By contrast, it was notable that Richard Bland admitted to losing focus during Saturday's back-nine, something he says also happened on Friday, which helps explain why he's made just one birdie and two bogeys across this run of 18 holes.

A mistake at the last cost him a place in the penultimate group alongside Canter, and that's a shame for both given they've played a lot of golf together at The Wisley. Where Bland is concerned, I worry it could be a sign of things to come after an emotionally draining fortnight and the extra attention he's had on him in Denmark, his 10th start of the year.

Scrivener is a quality operator at this level, he has a good record at the course, and he can outscore his veteran playing partner.

Posted at 1830 BST on 30/05/21

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