What will it take to win the US PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club?

The PGA Championship returns to Oak Hill Country Club, but it will look, feel and likely play very different to the course which saw Jason Dufner win this title 10 years ago.

Here are some of the key factors to consider.

Same name, different course

Oak Hill's East Course has seen it all, as a former host of the PGA Championship, the US Open, and the Ryder Cup. But we haven't seen Oak Hill, at least not the version which will greet players for the second men's major of the season.

Andrew Green's restoration has seen more than 600 trees removed from the property, along with extensive work to all of the greens, the return of a short par-three on the front-nine, and many other substantial changes aimed at bringing Donald Ross's classic back to life. Green calls his restoration 'sympathetic', both to Ross and to reality. Golf in 2023 is very different to golf in 1921, when the club found its new home, so to remain relevant means to make certain compromises.

Members at Oak Hill took some convincing, particularly when it came to the 13 trees removed from the 'Hill of Fame', dedicated to the likes of Dwight Eisenhower and Gerald Ford. In the end, they too had to come to terms with reality. This was not so much about preparing for the arrival of Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, but safeguarding the very future of the golf course.

The effect on the PGA Championship should work in tandem with the way golf has changed in the decade that has passed since the event last came to Rochester. Back then, three of the straightest hitters in the sport dominated, playing either from the fairway or the first cut for much of the week, so often on the correct side. Oak Hill was a course where being in the fairway wasn't always a guarantee of a line to the green.

Now, there is far more space, and golf is far more dominated by bigger hitters. Thick rough has been proven to be more in favour of those who hit the ball a long way, rather than those who do their best to avoid it. The last major to be played in New York was at Winged Foot, when Bryson DeChambeau blasted his way to the US Open. This won't quite be that, but power is sure to be advantageous in a way it simply wasn't 10 years ago.

Beyond driving, alterations ought to make the bunkers more penal and there's some talk of sideways shots if a particular fairway is missed. Then there are the greens, made larger which will help in some ways. However, one of the main benefits as far as this tournament's organisers go is that they'll have more options to tuck pins away. Expect some devilish ones.

August to May

The expectation of power over precision is no less influenced by the time of year. This will be the fourth PGA Championship to be held in May since the last August renewal in 2018 (the 2020 edition took place in September) and it's not long since snow fell in New York. Temperatures will be low, far lower than in Oklahoma last year and than that US Open at Winged Foot, or at Shinnecock in 2018.

As well as ensuring that the ball doesn't fly as far, it seems likely the fairways are far less fiery than at Southern Hills, particularly if more rain falls before tee-off as is expected. Anyone studying pictures of the course will note how lush it is, and we've had the traditional 'here's what happens when you drop a ball in the rough' video. That was noticeably absent a year ago.

One unknown is just how much accuracy off the tee will play a part, even if we accept that it plays second fiddle to distance. Oak Hill's PGA pro Jason Ballard insists that rough cut as short as three inches will still be a serious problem because of how dense it is and so will fairway bunkers, which have always been a big part of the course's challenge.

Perhaps a measure of precision will still be required in a way that it simply wasn't last year. Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship ranking 45th in fairways and runner-up Will Zalatoris was a remarkable 75th. At Kiawah Island, Phil Mickelson ranked 57th, and at Bethpage in 2019, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, clear of the field, ranked 44th.

Tellingly, the latter duo were still the most effective drivers in the field.

East Course now a long course

It's impossible to escape the fact that Oak Hill is now a long golf course. It seems strange to say it, because length was far from a factor before, but at almost 7,400 yards, this par 70 is going to prove a real slog for anyone who doesn't give the ball a rip from the tee.

Consider this: Firestone's South Course played to 7,400 yards when last it featured on the PGA Tour, a course always described by players as long first and foremost. Bethpage Black, where Koepka and Johnson bossed the field off the tee and pulled clear as a consequence, also played to 7,400 yards. Before that tournament began, Justin Rose said there weren't many possible winners because of how vital power would be.

PGA Championship officials have options with tee boxes which they will use, but Oak Hill seems sure to be long regardless. Remember, its yardage includes a 150-yard par-three and a short par-four or two. Driver feels like it could be the most important club in the bag just as it was at Bethpage. These two courses have produced drastically different leaderboards but now feel similar.

Inside talk

Ted Bishop, former president of the PGA, spoke to Oak Hill member Ballard, who will be in the field this week. Ballard summed it up neatly by stating that "the golf course will look and feel much different than it did in 2013", also picking out Rory McIlroy as a potential winner – though McIlroy's Oak Hill membership may have something to do with that.

Ballard said: "Donald Ross did a fantastic job designing both our courses. Our members play the West Course more often than the East; the guests play the East more often. The East is just a challenge. I've never seen it looking so good.

"The real changes happened when we hired Andrew Green to restore the golf course. We've added some length, I think the golf course will play about 260 yards longer than it did in 2013. Both par-fives will play over 600 yards. The golf course will look and feel much different than it did in 2013.

"Kerry (Haigh, PGA chief championships officer) does a fantastic job setting up the golf course. We use the motto 'the toughest, fairest test in golf'. Last time Dufner finished with a winning score of -10. Our members remember when Jay Haas won here in '08, the winning score was +7.

"If we can get somewhere around that -10 to -15 number, I think that's where he'd want to be."

As for what it takes to score around Oak Hill, Ballard was keen to stress that the fundamental nature of the challenge has changed, despite the promise of rough which is very difficult to hit from and fairways which remain as narrow as 25 yards in places.

Rochester-born Jeff Sluman insists that hitting fairways will be difficult and keep a lid on scoring – he says he simply doesn't see 16-under as possible – while Haigh insists the premium on accuracy here 'hasn't gone away', only that now recovery shots will be possible in a way they were not.

Whatever is to come, it seems clear we're talking about a better golf course thanks to Green's work and the membership's willingness to accept that it was absolutely necessary.

See for yourself

For more from Green and others connected with Oak Hill, watch The Fried Egg's typically excellent feature below. After watching that, see Golf Digest's hole-by-hole flyover.

I also recommend Andy Johnson's walk through the course and who it will suit, which you can listen to here.

Andy Lack's podcast is as comprehensive as ever and he's had an admirable stab at projecting approach shot distances which you'll see below.

Going back to Andy Johnson's take, he talks about a lot of 30-yard pitch shots and Andy Lack is in broad agreement as far as the short-game test that is expected.

If this proves true, note that Jon Rahm's short-game has been exceptional all year. Former US Open winner Gary Woodland is at the other end of the spectrum while Viktor Hovland clearly has something to prove, too.

The Ross factor

Three events regularly visit a Ross-designed course – the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit, the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield, and the TOUR Championship at East Lake. Each shares something in common, predominantly the use of trees to frame fairways but also Ross-signature greens, which tend to slope from back to front. You'll find those at Oak Hill, too.

Other events held at Ross-designed courses include the 2014 US Open (Pinehurst), the Barclays in 2011 and 2015 (Plainfield), and three events at Aronimink, the AT&T National (2010 and 2011) and the BMW Championship in 2018.

Green's work at Oak Hill may have the effect of separating it from these largely traditional courses, with Pinehurst the exception following its own restoration. Still, it's difficult to compare the test offered up at the 2014 US Open and the one expected at Oak Hill.

Had Oak Hill remained as it was, then East Lake would seem a fantastic pointer with Dufner, Furyk and Stenson all having played very well there. It may still offer some clues, particularly as it has undergone its own transformation since those three were at their best.

For Ross in general, Justin Rose, Tony Finau and Jason Day have historically strong records to call upon. As for East Lake, McIlroy has won there three times in six years. Remember when studying form to remove the staggered start from calculations.

Final thoughts

The PGA is far more competitive than the Masters and arguably more so than both the US Open and the Open. It's the major which gave us a big-priced winner in 2021, even if that was Phil Mickelson. It's the one which has gone to a first-time major winner in nine of the last 14 years and that figure would have been 10 had Mito Pereira made par on the final hole in 2022.

Pereira was a PGA Tour player without a win to his name so far – Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala take note – while play-off loser Zalatoris was still in search of his breakthrough, too. All those in the mix were young and it's reasonable to conclude that only Kiawah Island's Open-like test has levelled the age playing field, albeit Paul Casey did threaten behind Morikawa.

Ultimately we've not had a surprise major winner since Mickelson and the likelihood is we're looking close to the top of the market, if not necessarily the world rankings now that the likes of Koepka and Johnson are further down than their ability dictates they should be.

My view is that whoever does win will have driven the ball to a very high standard and that will be key to pre-tournament calculations.