WGC-Mexico Championship third-round betting preview and three-ball tip

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2pts Matt Kuchar to win his three-ball at 11/8

In 2019, Bryson DeChambeau trudged off the putting green after round one of the WGC-Mexico and walked straight in to controversy after he was caught on camera taking his frustrations out on the surface behind an unsuspecting Rich Beem.

The reason for Dechambeau’s annoyance was that he had just finished the day 71st out of 79 competitors in strokes-gained-putting and a 56th place finish in the event tells us that things didn’t improve much for him as the week progressed.

Twelve months down the line though much has changed and with golf being the game it is the 26-year-old, who arrived in Mexico on the back of a fifth place finish at last week's Genesis Invitational, finds himself at the top of the leaderboard through 36 holes courtesy predominantly of - guess what - a hot putter.

Thursday saw DeChambeau hole 125ft worth of putts, while on Friday he drained a further 140ft on his way to a 63 and a one shot lead on 11-under.

DeChambeau’s 63 however wasn’t the low round of Friday, with that honour going to Erik van Rooyen, who celebrated his 30th birthday in style with a round of 62 which lifted him up to second place.

Alongside van Rooyen is Patrick Reed, who has been the talk of the sport again this week.

Reed matched Dechambeau’s 63 and similarly owed his score to a stellar day on the greens, sitting behind only the 36-hole leader for strokes-gained-putting so far this week.

Reed’s antics in the sand in the Bahamas before Christmas have been back in the news courtesy of comments by Brooks Koepka and former CBS commentator Peter Kostis. The scrutiny of his behaviour shows no sign of going away.

Typically though the former Masters champion is letting his golf do the talking and it would be no big surprise if he used it all as motivation to drive him towards another World Golf Championship, having won this one in 2014 when it was played in Florida.

Behind the front three we find Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama tied for fourth on nine-under.

Thomas seems to have put last week's rare missed cut in Los Angeles behind him and he looks sure to be a huge threat over the weekend. He's carded a couple of 62s here in the past and for a while on Friday was threatening another.

Matsuyama also looked imperious for most of his second-round 64, however short missed par putts on two of his final three holes stalled things slightly.

To be fair to the Japanese star though he certainly isn’t the only player to struggle on the greens from short range and it is worth noting that Club de Chapultepec shared the honours with Riviera in 2019 for the most three-putts on tour from within five feet.

In addition Matsuyama, who currently leads the field in both strokes-gained tee-to-green and strokes-gained approach, actually holed his share of putts on Friday. He sits 25th so far for the week with the flat stick. If he can keep his excellent long game going in conjunction with a reasonably well behaved putter, Sunday could see him make a long overdue return to the winner's enclosure.

Those who have DeChambeau onside may take encouragement that last year's 36-hole leader Dustin Johnson went on to extend his lead through three rounds before closing out a comfortable five-shot victory. Equally though 2018 champion Phil Mickelson was six shots back and in 14th place at the halfway stage. Johnson meanwhile was three strokes back in fifth before securing his first title here in 2017.

With this in mind there is plenty of hope for those outside of the top five at the halfway stage, including of course Rory McIlroy,

The new world number one, who led after round one courtesy of a near-flawless 65, struggled through the bulk of Friday before rallying with three late birdies to post a 69 and move back within three of the lead.

The layers certainly believe that McIlroy is ideally positioned to pounce and take home the trophy, making him a marginal favourite at 100/30 with the American pair of Thomas and DeChambeau available at 7/2.

Reed and Matsuyama are then the only other two players quoted in single figures, both available at 6/1.

With so many class acts in the hunt and more low scoring anticipated I am happy to leave the outright market alone for now and instead turn my attention to Saturday’s three-balls.

The one that catches my eye from a betting perspective tees off at 4.18pm UK time and features MATT KUCHAR, Branden Grace and Benjamin Hebert.

After his great start to 2020, Grace has lost his way slightly over the recent weeks and the fact that he has found only 14 of 28 fairways over the first two days (six on Friday) does not bode particularly well for a weekend where the greens look set to get firmer and finding the short stuff will become even more imperative.

Hebert, who knocked on the door of a maiden European Tour win throughout 2019, is not dismissed lightly, however In Kuchar we have a player who has not only now become accomplished in the art of winning but continues to excel at creeping up leaderboards through the week when he starts slowly to invariably ‘backdoor’ a top-10 finish.

This week the American, perhaps suffering a hangover from his near miss at the Genesis, was slow out of the gates on Thursday and laboured to a 75.

Friday was a different story though and courtesy of finding 10 of 14 fairways and gaining nearly 3.5 strokes on the field from tee to green he bounced back with a 67.

I expect Kuchar to now push on over the weekend to the upper reaches of the leaderboard and on this basis the general 5/4 available for him to outscore his playing partners today looks more than fair.

Posted at 0930 GMT on 22/02/20

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