Free WGC-Match Play golf betting tips from Ben Coley

WGC-Match Play recommended bets

1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Group 1

• Dustin Johnson
• Kevin Kisner
• Adam Hadwin
• Bernd Wiesberger

The draw for the defending champion could hardly have been kinder. Of the players in Pool B, few have been struggling as badly as Kevin Kisner of late - the fact that these struggles have taken place on courses so well suited to his game is particularly disconcerting. The same goes for Pool D, from which out-of-form Bernd Wiesberger looks a much more straightforward opponent than, say, Luke List or Shubhankar Sharma. Even Pool C, within which were Ryder Cup players Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson, threw Johnson a handy enough opponent. Adam Hadwin is enjoying a fine year and fared reasonably well on his Presidents Cup debut, but lacks match play pedigree and makes his debut in this event. Johnson should arguably head the outright market.

Group 2

• Justin Thomas
• Francesco Molinari
• Patton Kizzire
• Luke List

So far, Justin Thomas has really struggled in this format. In fact, seven singles matches show six defeats and the sole victory came against Chris Wood. He's lost to the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth, but also to Kevin Na and Jamie Donaldson. The question for punters is does this reflect some kind of long-standing issue, or will a combination of better luck and a seriously improved model see an improvement in results? I lean strongly towards the latter, and it's notable that Thomas hasn't been thumped in any one of these games, but I'm not sure he's much value at 12/1. Largely, that's because his group includes the in-form Luke List, who will want revenge after losing a play-off to Thomas at the Honda; Francesco Molinari, who has Ryder Cup experience and makes few mistakes; and Patton Kizzire, who is one of the best putters in this tournament. Should Thomas navigate this group he'll be a huge threat, but there's a suspicion he might be vulnerable to an upset.

Group 3

• Jon Rahm
• Kiradech Aphibarnrat
• Chez Reavie
• Keegan Bradley

While the case for DJ is positive and the case for Thomas negative, the case for Jon Rahm sits somewhere in-between. On the one hand, we've a player born for match play, who made the final on his debut in the event last year, who has since taken his tally of top-grade titles from one to four and who has contended just about everywhere he's teed up this year. On the other, we have a sneakily tricky group. Kiradech Aphibarnrat has won three of his last 10 starts and while at a considerably lower level, let's not forget he also finished fifth in the WGC-Mexico. He's won the Paul Lawrie Match Play and the World Super 6 and is a fearless competitor who will pose a real threat to Rahm on Friday - particularly if he's built confidence with two earlier wins. Chez Reavie has played some of his best golf in 2018 while Keegan Bradley's abysmal singles record shouldn't detract from the fact he's classy, motivated and with Ryder Cup experience. Prior to the draw I thought Rahm might be the man to beat and his performances here last year were outstanding, but enthusiasm has been tempered.

Group 4

• Jordan Spieth
• Patrick Reed
• Haotong Li
• Charl Schwartzel

With both Haotong Li and Charl Schwartzel struggling a little for form, this should boil down to a fascinating Friday clash between Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed. It's Reed who boasts by far the superior singles record, Spieth having failed to win a solo match at either the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, and he's the one with the better recent form having finished second in the Valspar Championship as Spieth missed the cut. That said, Spieth will relish a return to Texas and won all three matches in the group stage here two years ago, before coming unstuck against finalist Louis Oosthuizen, and he might just have a little extra motivation after a well-documented incident involving Reed at Bay Hill last week. There may be little between these team-mates, a fact reflected by the market, but in outright terms I'd rather be on Spieth at 20/1 than Reed at 30/1.

Group 5

• Hideki Matsuyama
• Patrick Cantlay
• Cameron Smith
• Yusaku Miyazoto

A fairly difficult group to assess, with top seed Hideki Matsuyama having only made his return from injury last week and the other three all making their debuts in the event. Cameron Smith's form has just dipped slightly so it's Patrick Cantlay who rates the biggest danger to Matsuyama, as he certainly has the game and the temperament to thrive in the format. Indeed, with Matsuyama's long-game extremely rusty at Bay Hill, it would be the consistent Cantlay who gets the vote to advance and as he's seeded to face Tyrrell Hatton in the last-16, the Californian is worth backing at prices around the 50/1 mark. This is an excellent opportunity to stake a claim for a Ryder Cup place, and we saw last year with Rahm that inexperience need not be a barrier to success.

Group 6

• Rory McIlroy
• Brian Harman
• Jhonattan Vegas
• Peter Uihlein

Man of the moment Rory McIlroy looks well-housed here, with none of Brian Harman, Jhonattan Vegas or Peter Uihlein looking likely to trouble him. Harman is the biggest threat having amassed a fine match play record as an amateur and he's contended in two WGCs from just four starts - including when fifth in Mexico a few weeks ago. The left-hander is tough, striking the ball well and was seventh when last teeing it up in Texas, so we could be set for another Friday showdown here. Vegas claimed the notable scalp of Jordan Spieth at the Presidents Cup, studied in Texas and won two of his three group games last year, but he's struggled a little since a solid start to 2018. Uihlein hit the ball nicely last week but looks up against it and McIlroy will expect to earn a last-16 berth.

Group 7

• Sergio Garcia
• Xander Schauffele
• Dylan Frittelli
• Shubhankar Sharma

A real test for new dad, Sergio Garcia, whose last match in this event was a 6&4 drubbing at the hands of Jon Rahm. Garcia has a fairly ordinary record in this event across both formats and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on in his first start since the birth of his daughter, Azalea, and final start before his Masters defence. The challenge here is three-fold: Xander Schauffele is getting to grips with new equipment and looks the type to thrive in this format as he bids for a Ryder Cup place; Dylan Frittelli studied in Texas and is a solid all-rounder who won't give away cheap holes; Shubhankar Sharma is a star in the making who finished ninth in the WGC-Mexico before a fine effort back home in India. It's possible that Garcia's nous will see him through but I suspect he's vulnerable in one of the hardest groups to call.

Group 8

• Jason Day
• Louis Oosthuizen
• Jason Dufner
• James Hahn

Only one player in this field has beaten Louis Oosthuizen in this event since 2013 - and he's drawn him in the group stage. Oosthuizen won all six games before losing the final to Jason Day in 2016, and won two of his three group games last year before coming up short in a play-off for a last-16 spot. All told, that's eight wins in 10 matches at the course and he also won three group games from three at Harding Park in 2015, eventually losing to Jim Furyk in the quarters having seen off Rickie Fowler in the last-16. Go back a further year to 2014 and Oosthuizen lost to Day in the quarter-finals as the Aussie went on to win the first of two Match Play titles. As you might have guessed, I was keen on the South African before the draw but in Day he faces one of the tournament favourites, whose own record is excellent. Day won this title when at the top of his game two years ago and will relish the chance to defend it properly, having withdrawn in dramatic fashion due to personal issues last year. Jason Dufner is struggling a little but could still throw a spanner in the works at this Pete Dye-designed course, whereas James Hahn should be outclassed.

Group 9

• Tommy Fleetwood
• Daniel Berger
• Kevin Chappell
• Ian Poulter

Top seed Tommy Fleetwood has improved again since winning one of three tight group games on his course debut last year, and his 2-0-0 record in team singles suggests he'll be tough to budge despite this being a hot group. Daniel Berger relished a switch to match play at the Presidents Cup, where his aggressive iron play and solid putting worked wonders, while Ian Poulter's sensational singles record means he's always to be respected - particularly having shown a little more close to home at Bay Hill last week. But it's Kevin Chappell who might just prove good enough to advance. He won on his last start in Texas and that came after he'd finished seventh in the Masters. Last week, he struck the ball with typical authority to finish seventh in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and his relentless ball-striking could grind these into submission. Chappell was in poor form when finishing third in an even tougher group last year but has since gained Presidents Cup experience and can advance to a clash with either Day or Oosthuizen.

Group 10

• Paul Casey
• Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Kyle Stanley
• Russell Henley

On all known form, Paul Casey should win this group. He's a proven match play performer who ended a lengthy winless run last time out and with a Ryder Cup return on the horizon, this is another great opportunity for the Englishman to shine. Matthew Fitzpatrick has been out of sorts so far this year, having ended 2017 at the top of his game, while Russell Henley is another who has struggled. Both are better putters than Casey but that may not be enough. As for Kyle Stanley, he's as good a ball-striker as you'll find but makes his return to the event after a six-year absence and may not be perfectly suited to the format, as a timid type who likes to let his game do the talking. Casey could probably annoy a couple of these into submission, but the fact of the matter is his game is speaking for itself right now.

Group 11

• Marc Leishman
• Branden Grace
• Bubba Watson
• Julian Suri

A trappy group whose top seed can be considered only the most marginal of favourites. Leishman played beautifully on Sunday, a closing 67 ensuring that his title defence at the Arnold Palmer ended on a high, and he's usually difficult to beat. That said, he's won just one of six matches here and there are two very real dangers. Branden Grace has made himself the talisman of the International side in the Presidents Cup and halved his singles match with Dustin Johnson in that event late last year. He's won four of his six group games here and has been bubbling away rather nicely this year, with his short game particularly sharp. Bubba Watson topped a tough group a year ago and has returned to winning ways lately and you can be sure the Ryder Cup is firmly on his mind. It's a fascinating group, completed by the dangerous Julian Suri, but whoever wins it might have been softened up for a last-16 clash with McIlroy.

Group 12

• Tyrrell Hatton
• Charley Hoffman
• Brendan Steele
• Alexander Levy

A fairly humdrum group on paper, but these are four players who all have Ryder Cup aspirations. Tyrrell Hatton can certainly be expected to make the European side, but Alex Levy could yet join him; for the United States, Brendan Steele's experience of Le Golf National could make him a factor if peaking at the right time, while Charley Hoffman is a dangerous match play opponent who featured in last year's Presidents Cup. That adds a layer of intrigue as opportunity knocks for one of the quartet, especially with their seeded last-16 foe no certainty to progress. As Hatton was struggling a little with his swing at Bay Hill, it's Steele who gets my vote. He was eliminated at the group stage last year, but all three matches went to the 18th as he compiled a 1-1-1 record. This former Texas Open winner hasn't missed a cut all season and his imperious play from the tee should keep him in most holes. A potential dark horse.

Group 13

• Alex Noren
• Tony Finau
• Thomas Pieters
• Kevin Na

Three players on my shortlist at big prices are in this group - Alex Noren, Thomas Pieters and Kevin Na. The latter could make for an infuriating match play opponent and likes this course, where he beat Thomas last year as he advanced to the knockout round. Back in 2016, Na was the only player to earn 2.5 points from his group games and fail to progress as he lost a play-off to McIlroy, who he'd taken the distance at Dove Mountain way back in 2010. At 125/1, he's tempting despite being the bottom seed in a really tricky heat. Alex Noren won all three group games here in 2017 before running into DJ. His previous match play effort came in the Paul Lawrie, where he made the final only to run out of steam. Rewind to 2013 and he thrashed DJ 6&4 at Dove Mountain while he's also won singles matches in European colours. Given the strength of his play throughout the last two years, the fact that Texas winds won't be an issue and that his game has no flaws, he's a key player. So too is Thomas Pieters, who made a stunning Ryder Cup debut in 2016 and has saved his best golf for the strongest fields recently and is a solid 2-2-2 here. And then there's Tony Finau, whose last three rounds have been 74 but had previously been in excellent form. I still like Na at a price, but he will do well to ruffle the feathers of Noren and the Swede is the right favourite.

Group 14

• Phil Mickelson
• Rafael Cabrera Bello
• Satoshi Kodaira
• Charles Howell III

Phil Mickelson makes his first start since ending a dry spell of almost five years with that stunning play-off victory in Mexico. He's a massive player here, having won four matches in 2017 before coming unstuck against Bill Haas, and won two from three in 2016 until beaten by Patrick Reed. Mickelson's last match play effort came in the Presidents Cup, where he beat Adam Hadwin, while there was that stupendous clash with Sergio Garcia at the 2016 Ryder Cup which ended in a half. The chief threat to Mickelson is without doubt Rafa Cabrera Bello, who was impressive at Hazeltine and went on to win two of his three matches here, ultimately coming unstuck in a play-off for a last-16 place. That place went to Charles Howell III, who had beaten the Spaniard 1up in a really tight contest, but Cabrera Bello can be fancied to gain revenge here. Satoshi Kodaira makes his debut in the event on the back of rounds of 75 and 77 at the Arnold Palmer and would be a shock winner.

Group 15

• Pat Perez
• Gary Woodland
• Webb Simpson
• Si-Woo Kim

The resurgence of Pat Perez has been one of the more remarkable, if largely untold stories of the PGA Tour. He's now firmly within the world's top 25 with two wins to his name since the back-end of 2016 and would've been a strong favourite if teeing it up in the Dominican Republic this week. Here in Texas, he won one, lost one and was given one due to Jason Day's withdrawal last year and his earlier efforts in the event, a decade or so ago, were also perfectly respectable. Gary Woodland made the final of the 2015 renewal at Harding Park in San Francisco and while that course suited him better, this freak talent is a definite threat. So too is Webb Simpson, whose putting has improved, while Si-Woo Kim really enjoyed himself at the Presidents Cup and is not one to dismiss. This looks a weak group all things considered, but whoever emerges on top might find that the draw opens up a little.

Group 16

• Matt Kuchar
• Ross Fisher
• Yuta Ikeda
• Zach Johnson

While most of my pre-draw fancies have found difficult spots, I really like where Zach Johnson is housed. He's drawn the lowest-ranked seed and Matt Kuchar has struggled a little lately, while Ross Fisher's form would also have to be a concern despite a strong match play record - including here a year ago. Yuta Ikeda beat Fisher at the EurAsia Cup in January and might be a dark horse here, having fared reasonably well in defeat a year ago, but it's Johnson who I like. The two-time major champion has a superb match play record, including seven wins from nine group games in this event. He's undefeated in Ryder Cup singles since losing on debut to an inspired Darren Clarke at the K Club, which is particularly impressive when viewed alongside his team-mates, and his game has been coming together for a little while. Johnson's putter went cold again over the weekend at Bay Hill but in a format which suits him down to the ground, he looks a huge price at 80/1 despite being drawn to face namesake Dustin in the last-16.

Verdict

When organisers changed the format of this event ahead of the 2015 renewal, their intention was clear: to ensure that the very best players see this as a quest worth embarking on, and to help produce a fitting roll-of-honour. It has worked. Those in the field are all guaranteed three matches in three days, which makes the journey to Texas worthwhile, and the very best of them know that this round-robin gives them an excellent chance to progress.

In three renewals, we've had three well-fancied winners with Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy taking the title as top seed, and Jason Day as second. Should that trend continue, it'll be either DJ or Justin Thomas whose name is etched onto the trophy, but the latter's record in match play golf combined with a tricky-looking group makes Johnson by far the more likely of the two.

DJ is respected along with McIlroy and Day, seeded sixth and eighth respectively, but the latter has a tricky group and looked to be suffering with a slight back complaint (what else is new?) last week. It's also noteworthy that only two of a quartet made up of these three and Jon Rahm can reach the semi-finals, which does open things up ever so slightly.

Getting hung up on the draw is something of a fool's errand, but I can't resist backing Patrick Cantlay now that things appear to have worked out nicely for him. This superstar in the making can take advantage of a ring-rusty Hideki Matsuyama to win his group, and he'd be a strong fancy to win his last-16 tie against the winner of Group 12. Things get tougher then, but Cantlay strikes me as the type to thrive on his debut in the event as Rahm did a year ago and can make a run to the semi-finals.

Also in the top half of the draw, Zach Johnson appeals at 80/1. He's well-housed in Group 16 and while that means a potential last-16 clash with the defending champion, Johnson is exactly the type of character to relish such a challenge. A four-time winner in Texas whose game is definitely coming to the boil, it's worth taking on board the risk that he comes unstuck against one of the handful of elite players in the field.

I expected to be putting up Kevin Na at 125/1 and strongly considering Alex Noren and Thomas Pieters, but they're all lumped into the same group and I'll admit defeat in that particular quest, with Louis Oosthuizen completing the staking plan.

His record in this event is formidable and providing it's the engaged version of the 2010 Open champion, Oosthuizen is more than capable of exacting revenge on Day for his final defeat in 2016, and quarter-final defeat of two years earlier. Day deserves to be favourite for their group and is strongly considered as a title contender again, but Oosthuizen - whose form prior to last week had been eye-catching - is taken to cause an upset.

Finally, a mention for Rafa Cabrera Bello, who could go a long way in the event if able to topple Phil Mickelson. Third in the WGC-Mexico Championship won by Mickelson last time out and with an 8-2-1 record in this event at this golf course, the affable Spaniard is a formidable opponent for Mickelson and whoever does progress, we could be set for a mouthwatering last-16 clash with Jon Rahm potentially lying in wait.

Rahm is Mickelson's protege and Cabrera Bello's World Cup partner, making for tie-of-the-round material. He too is considered at 14/1 to go one better than last year, especially after reportedly shooting 59 in practice here in Austin, but for now I'll sit back and see how he gets on in an intriguing group.

There is no denying that class acts are favoured by this format, and that one of them will likely go all the way. However, my approach is to reassess things after the group stage with a view to getting involved then. All six finalists since the format switch won all three group games and we should be able to take a clearer approach to things before knockout golf begins.

Posted at 1150 GMT on 20/03/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet's WGC-Match Play markets
• Adam Sarson's Match Play records