Ben Coley is backing Paul Casey to finally get back to winning ways in this week's WGC-HSBC Champions.
Three weeks ago, at the start of the new PGA Tour season, I wrote that despite a two-week turnaround from the TOUR Championship, the opportunity to wipe the slate clean existed for every player holding a card for the year ahead.
Yet so far, the 2018 season is merely serving as an extension of its predecessor. Justin Thomas won again, taking a play-off against someone who, at just a slightly lower level, has also been a feature of leaderboards throughout the last 10-and-a-half months. A week earlier, Pat Perez picked up where he left off to win in Malaysia and his closest pursuer for much of the week was Xander Schauffele, who ended a fabulous rookie campaign with victory in the season-ending TOUR Championship.
If there is an obvious exception to all this it's Hideki Matsuyama, who endured a post-PGA slump which came to a halt when he put on another stripe-show to chase home Perez in the CIMB Classic, and he now arrives in China to defend his title in the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Matsuyama putted the lights out to land this by seven shots and the performance of Russell Knox, who was defending his 2015 title and sat second through 54 holes, raises strong hopes that the Japanese could go back-to-back. The trouble is, that putter looked as cold as ever last time and the rest of his form at Sheshan International amounts to nothing.
The course itself is a standard-size par 72, with the stock four par-fives split evenly across the nines. Taking care of these is so often decisive, never more so than when Bubba Watson played them in 14-under and the rest of the course in three-over en route to his dramatic victory here in 2014.
Any notion that this is purely a test of power is undermined not only by Knox, who beat Kevin Kisner in an accuracy contest two years ago, but by those who've almost downed some of the world's biggest hitters. Tim Clark's drive-then-hybrid game almost did for Bubba, while Graeme McDowell and Ian Poulter briefly threatened to trouble Dustin Johnson as he won this at an astonishing 40/1 a year earlier.
Johnson is a very fair price to win the title once more but one thing stands out when it comes to his three visits here. Twice, he's been able to prepare in Hong Kong and he's finished first and fifth on the back of it. Once, last year, he's arrived following an absence and things did not go to plan, two rounds of 74 leaving him with far too much to do and ultimately unable to crack the top 30.
Preparation has very much been key throughout this tournament's history, right back to David Howell's triumph over Tiger Woods in 2005. Only one champion - the enigma that is Bubba - managed to defy more than one week off and the vast majority had teed it up at locations ranging from Spain to Singapore prior to their trips to China.
With that in mind, those who've played either a European or PGA Tour event across the last fortnight are favoured and I'll surprise myself by suggesting that this is an ideal chance for Paul Casey to win the biggest title of his career.
Now 40, the Englishman who was once considered to be a pretty ruthless operator now has quite the opposite reputation. Chances have come and gone since he chose to base himself in the United States and while he's in exile from the Ryder Cup, he hasn't even been able to buy himself credit in the way that Ian Poulter has.
Most criticism of his play in contention is fair. While Casey has been unfortunate on occasion - he birdied holes 70 and 71 to force a play-off with Bubba for the Travelers two summers ago and didn't do all that much wrong when also beaten in extra holes for the Northern Trust Open earlier that year - he has also looked weak in the mix.
It's like hitting the reset button. 🔘🚴♂️@Paul_Casey discusses the benefit of having a hobby outside of golf.#HSBCChampions. pic.twitter.com/dR0Hh5Xd7x
— HSBC Sport (@HSBC_Sport) October 18, 2017
However, for once he has everything in his favour, from golf course to field strength relative to purse, the absence of the hottest golfer on the planet and the potential for the star name in the field to show some rust as he returns from a break.
Furthermore, he looks a fair price to me. Casey is 25/1 here, odds similar to those offered beside the name of Ross Fisher, a similar but less able player, and Tyrrell Hatton, whose two wins have come where he's comfortable. Hatton could go in again, but for now he's a very good European Tour player, not a global, elite one as Casey remains.
I would argue that if Casey played in events like the Italian Open and Dunhill Links, he'd win plenty. In fact, he's won two of his last 25 starts on the European Tour, but chooses instead to base himself in the US, ensuring that wherever he plays, there's a world-class opponent to overcome. So often, one of those - Rory at the Deutsche Bank, DJ at the BMW - has proven too good, albeit with a little help.
This World Golf Championship is the most European-feeling of them all, given how much time the Tour spends in the Far East, and Casey has a remarkable overall record in China. As well as two wins elsewhere, in every completed start (nine in total) at Sheshan, he's finished inside the top 25. That record includes five top-10 finishes.
Last year he led the field in greens hit and built his score on the par-fives, so with some encouraging play across the CIMB Classic and CJ Cup in the bag - particularly the former where he finished inside the top 10 despite an opening 77 - he should be absolutely primed to produce his best golf here.
There's of course a chance that it will not be enough, but this is a very winnable WGC and Casey could well do what the similarly frustrating Francesco Molinari managed in 2009, and dominate it from the front.
While I started this preview talking about the change of season on the PGA Tour, which has produced all four winners of the event since it became co-sanctioned, I do believe there's a fine chance for the best of the European Tour operators to come to the fore.
No Thomas, no Jordan Spieth, no Rickie Fowler, no Rory McIlroy, Jason Day having his first look, DJ perhaps undercooked and Hideki unreliable makes for an opportunity which Tommy Fleetwood can take.
Regular readers will know the regard in which I hold Fleetwood and surely now the world is aware that he's a genuinely elite player. From tee-to-green there are few who get close, to be frank, and that means whenever the putter behaves he's a huge threat under any conditions.
Last time out he just managed to sneak a place in the Italian Open, where his failure to properly take advantage of the par-fives proved costly. In light of their importance here that might rate a concern, but in fact it is an anomaly and without boring anyone further, the nature of those par-fives in Milan removes Fleetwood's advantage. Here at Sheshan, his ability to find a target 330 yards away will again be key.
There's the ongoing uncertainty around how he truly responds on the course to his change of status off it, Fleetwood being a delighted member of the new dad club, but it could absolutely be a positive. Besides which, as I wrote in Italy, all we need is for it not to be a negative.
On that score the Race To Dubai is a massive factor. Fleetwood's lead was cut by Sergio Garcia on Sunday and the Englishman is absolutely determined to earn his place in the history books, which he deserves for his performances at all levels throughout 2017. With Garcia not in the field this week my belief that it means more to Fleetwood is strengthened and he could strike a decisive blow.
His record at Sheshan doesn't leap off the page but three top-30 finishes from as many visits looks good to me, especially as he was nowhere near the level he's at now. On all three occasions he started very well and if that's the case again, surely he can be fancied to stick around with his relentless ball-striking a huge advantage here.
Fleetwood's form in China is good and in fact he might well have won on each of his last two visits, finishing second in the Shenzhen International and third in Hong Kong when pounding fairways and greens, and if he can cope with being so far away from his partner and son he must have a big chance to add to his second place in the WGC-Mexico Championship earlier this season.
At the risk of repeating my preview of the Italian Open, I can't leave Matthew Fitzpatrick unbacked here either.
The youngster has played well on both visits to Sheshan, finishing seventh when a European Tour rookie before flying through the field for 16th last year, and like Fleetwood returns a better player.
I've been really taken with the way he's held his form since a hard-fought victory in the European Masters and his accuracy figures since that fourth European Tour title was safely tucked away suggest a fifth could arrive on its heels.
Fitz is an extremely driven player who wants to maximise his potential in the game and while he acknowledges that his relative lack of length affects the lines he can take here, he makes up for it with some of the best long-iron play in the game combined with a killer instinct which is even more rare.
He's hit greens at Sheshan for fun - over 80 per cent in both visits - and if he can avoid the sort of stuttering start he is prone to, the 23-year-old is more than capable of going shoulder-to-shoulder with anyone here and coming out on top.
It's back to the PGA Tour for my last two selections, starting with Daniel Berger.
He was second here last year and 11th on debut in 2015, where a costly seven on Sunday hides what good work he did for most of his debut. That tells us already that he has warmed to Sheshan International in a way that not all of his compatriots do, and bodes extremely well for his return.
There's no need to be overly concerned by a lacklustre effort in the CJ Cup, his first start since the Presidents Cup. Berger had been 51st in the CIMB Classic prior to chasing home Matsuyama here and 11th place came after he'd finished 64th in the same event. Clearly, he improves for his first outing of the season.
The par-fives were an issue last year - he gave Matsuyama seven shots across them, the exact margin of victory - but improvement can be expected. Berger has been a prominent figure in the PGA Tour's par-five scoring average charts since his rookie season and seems likely to put experience to use this time.
"I love everything about China," he said last year, citing the food and the people as reasons, and with that kind of attitude I see no reason he can't again play well. It's worth noting that his two PGA Tour wins have come at the same course and with familiarity on his side a big performance is expected.
Finally, while Branden Grace is tempting having struck the ball really well in Korea, I'm rolling the dice with Charles Howell III.
This will be his first start in China, but Howell has gone out of his way to play in Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, and has produced some sparkling golf along the way. He strikes me as the type of character to relish travel rather than resent it as some do and that could count for plenty in what looks an open renewal.
Howell returned to form with 19th place in Korea last week, striking the ball well, and is a very strong par-five player. His 2017 figures were good enough but he did miss half the season and a better guide is 2016, which he finished ranked 10th on Tour for par-five scoring average, three places down on 2014.
Like Berger, he also figures highly in birdie average which is vital given the low scoring conditions in China and at 175/1, is worth a small bet to spring a surprise. I strongly suspect he'll take to Sheshan at the first time of asking.
Recommended bets: WGC-HSBC Champions
2pts e.w. Paul Casey at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - location and field present a very good chance
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - ideal venue to seal Race To Dubai title
1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - very strong here so far and remains in hot form
1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - another big-time youngster who thrives at Sheshan
1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 175/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - should relish test following solid top-20
Posted at 2010 BST on 23/10/17.
