Golf betting tips: RBC Heritage final round
1pt e.w. Webb Simpson (without Cink) at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3)
2pt double Morikawa and Hoffman to win their two-balls at 7/4 (Unibet)
1pt Brian Stuard to beat Will Zalatoris at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
The RBC Heritage has so far been a procession, from a two-time former champion, who was 12th in the Masters, and has won already this season. Putting it that way makes it sound as simple as it has looked for Stewart Cink, and yet the 47-year-old had been available at 150/1 in places when betting opened on Monday.
If there's one place where his age and experience retains significance, it is Harbour Town, and Cink remains in control having followed a pair of 63s with a Saturday 69 which was precisely what he needed to do. One more of those, to reach 20-under, and the title will surely be his.
Complication is brought by the calibre of those who have managed to cling to his coattails. Collin Morikawa is closest, five behind the runaway leader, their scoring differential determined solely by the putter — from tee-to-green, they cannot be separated. Morikawa's mesmerisingly precise game has proven an ideal fit for this course, and he remains with hope of winning for a fifth time in just 45 starts since the 2019 US Open.
Emiliano Grillo has found winning far less straightforward, but he barely misses a shot and is capable of a charge, while Matt Wallace, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson and Matt Fitzpatrick are among those just a little further back. All have some sort of chance if the leader shoots over-par and adds drama to a tournament which has lacked it to this point.
The problem for Morikawa is that this course is not one where caution can be thrown to the wind. He can't particularly change his method of attack by reaching for driver where previously he's hit three-iron, because these narrow alleyways pose questions of execution, not of decision-making. That removes some of the volatility which those seeking to overturn big deficits would prefer, and it means they need to both play outstandingly, and hope for mistakes.
I don't think Cink will make enough of them. This has not always been a good course for front-running — Dustin Johnson was the 54-hole leader two years ago and shot 77 to fall to 28th — but for a wide-margin lead, I think it's ideal, particularly when that player is an in-form, past champion, who has found real improvement for having his talkative son on the bag.
Expect the gap to narrow, if for no other reason than Morikawa is a better player than Cink and that those just behind him are free from the pressure which the leader carries, but for the veteran to do enough to win by two or three. Again, should it get close-ish down the stretch the small details of this course, like one of the widest fairways on the planet for its final hole and a par-five 15th upon which eagles are rare, may help him to complete a job he began spectacularly.
I'm not usually keen on betting without favourites, as the dynamics among the chasing pack can be hard to predict, but the 14/1 being dangled by Paddy Power and Star Sports (13/1 Betfair, 12/1 Coral and Ladbrokes) about WEBB SIMPSON has to be worth taking.
Simpson's third-round 64 saw him climb into a share of sixth, eight off the lead but just three behind Morikawa, and with three places on offer in this market he'll at the very least pay us out with a similar score at a course he loves. I wouldn't be one who buys into the idea that he's less likely to do it just because he did it yesterday, and instead would argue he's marginally the most likely player in the field to shoot the lowest final round.
Matt Fitzpatrick is capable from the same perch, but Simpson deserves to be a few points shorter than both him and Corey Conners. There is nobody who is more comfortable at this quirky course, where Simpson closed with a 64 last year. Five of his last nine rounds have been 65 or lower and there's a reason he began this tournament alongside Dustin Johnson at the front of the market.
The defending champion also went 65-65 over the weekend to finish third in the Wyndham last year, having gone 63-64 through the middle rounds when he won in Phoenix, and on courses such as this one few if any are more capable.
No doubt he rode a hot putter in the third round, but Simpson's final three approach shots were all superb, and he looks to have clicked. It won't be in time to win the tournament unless Cink falters, but it could be enough to finish best of the rest. Those who have a Sky Bet account could do worse than take 13/2 without Cink and Morikawa, too.
It might seem counterintuitive to also recommend COLLIN MORIKAWA to win his two-ball but he should do enough to close the gap on his playing partner, and I'll double him with CHARLEY HOFFMAN at around the 7/4 mark.
Hoffman has been playing beautifully for several months now and his Saturday 67 could've been seriously low but for a misbehaving putter. By contrast, McNealy arrived out of form and has leaned heavily on his short-game at a course which I wouldn't have down as ideal for a player of his talents.
The young Californian impressed everyone at Pebble Beach earlier this year but his recent efforts have been far less spectacular, and he closed with a one-over 72 on his debut in this event. Expect something similar, with Hoffman's vastly superior long-game proving the difference.
Finally, I'll chance BRIAN STUARD to get the better of superstar Will Zalatoris, who might just be running on fumes having contended on his Masters debut last week.
Zalatoris hinted as much earlier on this week and while he rallied impressively after a double-bogey during Saturday's third round, it could just be that he struggles to do so again at a course where mistakes can snowball.
Stuard has more to play for and closed with a 67 in this event last year. That day, he did enough to beat veteran Bernhard Langer. This evening, something along the same lines could see him account for a player at the other end of the age and experience scale.
Published at 1000 BST on 18/04/21
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