Golf betting tips: Sunday February 28
2pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 9/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3)
We’re through 54 holes of the first WGC of the year and the event, which for this year only has made its home at The Concession club, has so far proved to be a cracker.
The course, which stepped in when the regular host venue in Mexico was unable to fulfil its duties due to the Covid-19 pandemic, has been a great watch and if you haven't seen any of the coverage so far, tonight's final round comes highly recommended.
A Jack Nicklaus design which, like many, gets harder the nearer you get to the hole, the main defence of The Concession is found on the hugely contoured greens which have been especially penal if not dealt with correctly. Though scoring has been lower than many expected, mistakes have been punished with doubles, triples, and Viktor Hovland's quadruple on Friday night.
Collin Morikawa has handled things better than anyone else, thanks in large part to his trademark approach play coupled with big putting improvements from last week in California. He leads the way on 15-under though there was a feeling come the end of round three that he'd let a number of players back into the tournament.
Morikawa made his move on Saturday with a scintillating burst of seven birdies in eight holes from the fifth through to the 12th, and as he stood on the 13th tee with a five-shot lead it looked like the PGA champion was going to run away with things. But a clumsy three-putt there before another bogey at another par-five, the 17th, saw that advantage more than halved and he has plenty of work to do once more.
Despite losing has way over the last six holes on Saturday, Morikawa, as is more often than not the case, has been exemplary from tee-to-green and he leads the field in this department as well as in approach play.
With such a strong tee-to-green game the difference between finishing among the pack and winning for Morikawa is usually the putter. Give him a hot putting week or even a slightly better than average one and he will more often than not be in the hunt. On Saturday he holed pretty much everything he looked at for the first dozen holes and if he can keep this up – he currently ranks 18th on the greens for the week – he will be tough to beat despite the wobble we witnessed late in the day.
Wobble he did though and I can’t help but think that will play on his mind going in to Sunday. And the fact is he doesn't have much experience sleeping on the lead - in fact this is the first time he'll have done it outright, having been tied in the 3M Open before finishing second. He's proven up to every challenge he's faced so far and is a world-class player with many more titles ahead of him, but that doesn't make him value in the circumstances we have at a skinny-looking 13/8.
Brooks Koepka and Billy Horschel are closest and it's the who will be in the final pairing with Morikawa, which may be no bad thing for the leader given how well they played in each other's company on Saturday.
Koepka, who returned to the winners enclosure recently in Phoenix, would normally be the obvious choice here however he's been struggling with a neck problem that has been bothering him for the last month or so and he did well to grind out a two-under-par 70. Koepka being Koepka could come out tomorrow rejuvenated after some physio and walk away with this, but he was slow to get going because of his lack of movement and he can't afford the same thing to happen.
With Horschel being winless in solo events in four years and often showing signs of jitters on the final day he is not someone I would particularly trust at shortish odds on a Sunday and I will therefore look past him and side with WEBB SIMPSON, who sits a further shot back on 12-under.
Since winning the PLAYERS Championship in 2018, Simpson has cemented his position at the top level of the game and two more victories in 2020, in Phoenix and at the RBC Heritage, showed again he is a man you can generally trust on Sundays.
This week he has managed to keep mistakes to a minimum, making only four bogeys to date and avoiding any of the card-wrecking doubles or triples which have befallen others. It's only been a slightly cool putter which has kept him on the fringes rather than right in the thick of things but he's as capable as anyone of lighting it up this evening, and looks unlikely to go backwards given his scrambling skills.
The seven-time PGA Tour winner is a man I am always happy to have on side on a course that suits his precision game and Simpson looks the best value going in to Sunday at 9/1, with three places on offer.
Behind Simpson on 11-under we have the pair of Rory McIlroy and Patrick Reed, who will keep each other company and give us a taster of things to come in the Ryder Cup this autumn.
McIlroy it should be said could easily be out of sight already this week however the frequent birdies have been offset by a steady stream of mistakes that have seen the Northern Irishman post seven bogeys and two double-bogeys across the first 54 holes.
Despite a double at the second hole, Saturday saw McIlroy produce a big improvement in his approach play from Friday and if he can build on his finish, which saw him play the last seven holes in five-under to get in to contention, we could well see one of those trademark Sunday charges of his to bag the title.
The problem is though we do not know exactly which Rory will show up these days and with him readily admitting in post-round interviews that his game is still not really where he would want it to be, I cannot trust him to avoid the mistakes today as he will need to if he is to get the job done.
Reed is of course a big threat however it may just be that the challenge of winning in consecutive starts on tour and defending this trophy, which he won on a different course last year, is starting to weigh on him and he began to look a little ragged down the stretch.
Those on 10-under will feel they have a chance if they can avoid mistakes but doing so at The Concession has proven to be very difficult. Simpson, however, is close enough to capitalise if Morikawa does struggle a little, and if the putter begins to sing then he could be the one serving it up to the leader come what promises to be an enthralling back-nine.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 28/02/21
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