Jason Daniels previews the final round of the Celtic Classic, where Scotland's Marc Warren can make a move behind his front-running compatriot Connor Syme.
Recommended bets
2pts Marc Warren to finish in the top 10 at at 2/1
1pt Marc Warren to finish in the top five at 15/2
When Sam Horsfield (64), Thomas Detry (66) and Andrew Johnston (66) finished their quality rounds on Friday, it looked as if the late/early draw had been an advantage. However, playing his first 'proper' event since Qatar in March and a couple of weeks into fatherhood, Thomas Pieters crashed the party with a three-under 68 despite an average putting display to grab a final two-ball with the winner of the Hero Open.
Looking at previous results and given local Rhys Enoch says a good round is around par the course didn't seem as if it could give up a double-figure score through two rounds with the first six holes playing over par and thereafter only the par-five 10th being able to be described as an easy birdie. The four mentioned above all ranked high for finding greens this week, whilst any ability to finish with the short stick is, of course, a great help.
Early through the third round, the course seems to have retained some difficulty early before becoming 'gettable' on the back-nine, eight of the last 10 playing below par, including the final four. Get through the opening few without damage and low scores are there as early rounds from the in-form Alexander Bjork, Andy Sullivan and Adri Arnaus demonstrated, and the same will no doubt be true on payday.
I wondered if close friends and compatriots Detry and Pieters would try that one percent harder to try and obtain Belgian domination for the final day. Being the only bogey-free player in the field through two rounds, Detry will have fancied his chances of doing something special over the weekend. He really should have won this season but whatever happens will surely now overtake his perpetual market rival Joost Luiten over the next few weeks, the Dutchman again disappointing when not making the weekend, and a nice bounce out of the bunker at the first may well have been an early telling point.
Detry seems to go missing for a few holes during his rounds as he did today, frustrating his loyal backers, but he has the potential to be up there with his victorious World Cup colleague. I find him impossible to read - too short in the market for a player with one professional win - but couldn't argue with anyone getting with him on the exchanges as he will almost inevitably move forwards on Sunday, from a position similar to that which saw him charge into a near-miss second to Horsfield a fortnight ago.
I was all ready to publish that four-time European Tour winner Pieters gave something of a masterclass in iron play today starting with perfect approaches at the second, fourth and, fifth holes before going wide at the sixth and making the up-and-down look a simple par save. Even forgetting the dropped shot at the par-three seventh he had a chance for eagle on the ninth and, in the words of Tony Johnstone, made that look 'so easy'.
A further eagle at the next par-five and it looked oh-so-simple until the shenanigans at the easiest hole on the course, the 15th. Topping his initial tee-shot short and into the 'rubbish', he pulled his third into the penalty area, eventually making a triple-bogey seven. He then bogeyed the 16th before failing to birdie the last and from being almost certain to be leading and in the final two-ball he now lies four back.
It may be that he may relish the chase given he wasn't leading when winning at either Denmark and crucially at the KLM. As an aside, he also boasts a runner-up finish at Abu Dhabi, a venue that appears in a host of top finishers at the last running of a main tour event here in 2014. The world number 77 was clearly the one to beat but has turned the event upside down just four from home.
Horsfield is going to the PGA Tour, make no mistake about that. First he will probably nab a couple of trophies over here and his accurate iron play is going to give him plenty of chances. The Anglo-American has some outstanding efforts recently - the 59 at home during the lockdown, 61 at Close House and that come-again victory at Forest of Arden. Despite not getting the hang of it until late on in round three he is a huge danger to all and is now deserved favourite, for all that you'd be a little worried about overnight rain causing him more problems on the greens.
The relative inexperience of players such as Matthew Jordan, Jonathan Caldwell and Jake McLeod (good fightback after a horror start) was in evidence in the third round and while Jason Scrivener (one in eight years) and Callum Shinkwin have some experience in the mix, the former has had too many of chances at this level and the Hertfordshire player has shown far too much reliance on a long drive and a horrible-to-watch caddy's read to seal the deal when it counts - a debate for another day.
Andrew Johnston was woeful at times, shoving a few shots right of target, but Adrian Meronk piques the interest given his sole win on the Challenge Tour was in Portugal - another venue with links to previous combatants - though it will be tough to back up a best-of-the-day 64 having gone backwards on final day at Close House.
With an even more progressive profile, fellow Challenge Tour winner Connor Syme has been up there in all accuracy stats for a few weeks and that has shown on a course where the rough is a no-no. He was one of my pre-event podcast picks so Sunday will be fun and it will be fascinating to see how he plays when right in the mix and after bogey-free second and third rounds.
While he is ranking over 100 places lower for putting than his accuracy, finding greens will be an advantage and he certainly has improved with the short stick now that the greens have slowed. That lack of a birdie at 18 (misjudged approach) and a shortage of experience of being in a final two-ball at this level may end up counting against him but, while facing battle-hardened winners will bring added pressure, you can't win it if you're not in it.
There was the temptation to play last week's runner-up in a top-10 bet but I wonder if Adrian Otaegui may be better on the faster greens, and there are ifs and buts about so many at around the same score.
Just red-lined pre-event, I managed to be with hugely experienced MARC WARREN during the first round and it was great to see him recover from going missing on Friday.
These are precisely his conditions - wet, long, receptive greens, linksy in places and water in play - and the more rain the better. There is no telling what he would give for a repeat of that final-round 63 here in 2010, but he boasts that a place finish in 2014 and after his win in Austria he is under no real pressure to 'have' to win, though he definitely can.
On a leaderboard containing a few that will struggle when we get to the signing of the cheques, the 39-year-old can prove no fool and nab a place on the front page, with victory no pipedream should his compatriot out in front stall.
Posted at 2130 BST on 15/08/20
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