European Tour: Scottish Open golf betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ian Poulter at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 150/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Jeunghun Wang at 200/1 (Unibet, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet: Eight places each-way | Betfair Sportsbook | Paddy Power | Oddschecker

There have been 12 events since the European Tour resumed in July, beginning with that fortnight of scrambling to find a feed which would give you access to the cameras positioned behind the last few greens in Austria. Since then we've taken in a well-executed UK Swing, three weeks on the continent and a low-key return to these shores at Galgorm Castle. Now, it's lucky number 13: a Rolex Series event in which two of the circuit's best players turn out.

Tommy Fleetwood has already popped up this side of the Atlantic once, sauntering to third place in Portugal, and now he's joined by Matt Fitzpatrick to shape the market for the Scottish Open. These are world-class players, surely set to represent Europe in the postponed Ryder Cup next year, all being well. And they have the requisite tools for a demanding week in North Berwick: both have gone close in the Dunhill Links and defied difficult conditions to win elsewhere.

At 10/1 and 12/1 respectively, they'll have their backers, despite respectively disappointing performances at Winged Foot. Both can be excused a mishap there and Fleetwood's form figures this summer should underline the situation here. He's played seven times, and on six occasions has been underwhelming. Yet when he came back to Europe, where he's one of the biggest fish in a colourful but not particularly deep pond, he immediately found a level of comfort which had previously been absent, and probably ought to have won.

Fitzpatrick can take heart from that, and a wealth of similar evidence. Look at Martin Kaymer, who returned at the PGA Championship, then came to Europe and should certainly have won immediately only to finish third at the Belfry. Behind him, in fifth, was Bernd Wiesberger, who had also been playing on the PGA Tour. Just last week, Lucas Herbert and Jazz Janewattananond contended in Northern Ireland. There are odd exceptions - Danny Willett the most obvious - but almost to a man, those swapping dollars for euros have cashed in quickly.

That reality, plus the fact that Rolex Series winners have tended to be from the upper echelons of the circuit, points towards the front of the market, where there are options behind the front two. Thomas Pieters is well capable of collecting a fifth title and first since he became a parent; Erik van Rooyen was in the final group here last summer and loves Scottish golf; Lee Westwood plainly remains a force, and Thomas Detry is closing in on his first solo title, too.

The trouble is, if there's to be an upset in one of these big-purse events, it will most likely come in the Scottish Open. We know that because it happened in 2018, when Brandon Stone's closing 60 stole the prize, and almost did in 2017, when Callum Shinkwin would've been a shock champion but for making a mess of the final hole. Maybe that's because those renewals preceded the Open, which stole the focus of the favourites. More likely is that it reflects the nature of golf in its purest form, where the weather and the luck of the draw and the bounce of the ball play their part.

And so to the final complicating factor: The Renaissance isn't exactly links golf. Yes, it's meant to be and yes it's part of a rich coastline, but this is a modern course with modern features, which prevented some of last summer's field from preparing as they'd have liked to for Portrush. Softened turf and simple pins made for an underwhelming shootout whose play-off took place under dark skies and on the other television channel, and were something similar in the offing we'd be looking at a very different formula.

Hopefully, it is not. There's some foul weather in the forecast, both wet and windy, and last month's Ladies' Scottish Open revealed a sharp increase in difficulty level. With new tees, pinched fairways, some trees removed, the routing changed, and greens which were firmer and faster, suddenly a tournament which had been won in 20-under went the way of Stacey Lewis in five-under, after another play-off. This could be a proper grind, and at this early stage we could even see a significant bias towards those teeing off late on Thursday, not that you'd trust the hourly forecast this far out.

All of which is to say yes, I do like those who drop in grade, but not enough to play at short enough prices. Pieters and van Rooyen in particular would've been straight into the staking plan were fair not now foul; instead I'm keen to side with those who will relish a battle and top of this parallel list is MATT WALLACE.

One of those who has already dipped his toe in the water over here, Wallace finished 19th in the UK Championship despite having endured a difficult few weeks in the US since a top-five in Ohio. He didn't have his A-game at the Belfry, his 'home' course these days, but a closing 68 was good enough to climb to a position of respectability.

Significantly, I thought, he started hitting quality approach shots again. That department of his game had been lacking all summer, and yet it returned as if from nowhere and was strong again as he finished 43rd in the US Open subsequently. Perhaps - and there's some speculation required here - it isn't a coincidence given that in returning to the UK, he'll have been reunited with Robert Rock, his swing coach.

Stats-wise, those two events were his best in terms of strokes-gained approach since last spring, when he finished second in the British Masters. It could well be that this is the missing link for a player who we know is a winner, who relishes difficult conditions, and who has form in Scotland at this time of year courtesy of his last two Dunhill Links appearances.

Wallace was 14th in this last year, leading the field in putting, and the hope is he can marry that comfort on the greens with an improving long-game and perhaps even draw extra focus from the world rankings. Currently 50th, Wallace hasn't been lower in almost two years and if he wants to avoid a repeat of his Ryder Cup omission in 2018, he really needs access to each of the five major championships between now and Whistling Straits.

If he can drive it as he did in New York, where he ranked 30th among the world's very best players, he'll go really well here and that combination of incentive and potentially difficult conditions makes him the standout candidate at the prices, albeit with IAN POULTER close behind.

Like Wallace, Poulter shared 14th here last summer and I can't help but think he was undone by conditions. In a 20-year career he has of course played well in his share of shootouts, but this Ryder Cup stalwart really does prefer a grind - a fact underlined by his standout major performance coming in the toughest Open Championship played this century.

Throughout the 72 holes Poulter made just three bogeys (T3 in bogey avoidance) and he was left to rue some missed opportunities during a third round which saw Wiesberger take control of the tournament. Poulter began it four adrift and in the mix; he ended it eight back and playing for something to take with him to the Open the following week.

Fifteen months on and Poulter is in good enough form to improve upon that debut spin. He was 39th in The Northern Trust won by Dustin Johnson, 22nd in Collin Morikawa's PGA Championship before that, and fifth in the Workday won by Morikawa at Justin Thomas's expense. Not to labour the point but this is form of a considerably higher level and it deserves more respect than the 40/1 being quoted.

Poulter is 64th in the world and it's clear he's focused on one final (surely, it would be his last) Ryder Cup appearance on US soil, before turning his attention to captaincy. His play this year suggests he has it in him and this links-ish test in difficult conditions with a big purse and world ranking points is an opportunity he's capable of taking. He's as likely as anyone outside the top five or six in the betting.

There are plenty of tempting options in the next wave, not least Joost Luiten and Justin Harding. The latter keeps impressing with his ability in the wind and has been a fixture this summer, while the former may be over the embarrassments of Austria and was an eye-catching 11th last week.

Both are respected, but I keep coming back to this weather forecast and it compels me to roll the dice. There's simply no other way to describe putting EDDIE PEPPERELL in the staking plan, even at 125/1.

Pepperell's form this summer (47-WD-MC-WD-MC) amounts to almost nothing and explains the price. He's hard to get right at the best of times, but this sequence in theory simplifies things - his game is in no fit shape to be winning a Rolex Series title.

I'm just not so sure that's the case. In fact, in two of his four European Tour starts, the two-time winner has struck the ball well enough to contend. That was the case at the Belfry, where he gained almost five strokes with his ball-striking before withdrawing with a hip problem. It was also the case at the British Masters, where his ball-striking was bettered by just a handful of players only for another shocker with the putter to confine him to 47th.

The hip problem and the putter are both serious negatives, of course, but he did fly out to New York for the US Open and on what we know that's not something he'd do if not fit - remember, he skipped the US PGA. The putter is more of a worry but it comes and goes; indeed on his last trip to Scotland he putted really well, one week after he'd putted really badly at Wentworth. It's a risk I'll take.

Answering the negatives takes care of the essence of the case at the odds, but I also like the fact he's won in Qatar where it blows and in foul weather at Walton Heath. In the Scottish Open he's been second, fourth and 12th from just six starts, and his links (and links-ish) form extends to the Irish Open and a play-off defeat at Royal County Down.

Already a winner in England and having contended at Wentworth and at Hillside too, Pepperell has raised his game many times in the UK and of course there's that famous, hungover effort at Carnoustie, where he was sixth in the Open. Along with a contending effort at Sawgrass last year, that's proof of his suitability to a difficult challenge.

Make no mistake, another result made up of letters rather than numbers is a perfectly possible outcome. But with all the unknowns as we return to The Renaissance, where Pepperell shot four solid rounds last summer, I'd rather take a chance at one of the most capable outsiders in the field.

Sticking with both the spirit of the above case and the Qatar Masters, long a pointer towards those who can go well in the wind, JEUNGHUN WANG is also worth chancing.

Here we have another player who, like Fitzpatrick and Poulter, makes his new-era debut on the European Tour this week. Wang has been playing back home in South Korea where he's finished 21st, seventh, ninth, third and 26th in five starts so far this summer, and while plainly at a lower level, it tells us he's sharp and in decent nick.

Last week might have been a nice enough way to prepare for this given that the KJ Choi Invitational was won in three-under, and whatever the case Wang certainly likes it tough. His first two wins on the European Tour came in five- and six-under, and that play-off win in Qatar was no picnic at -16.

All of that makes him interesting and I also like the fact he sprang to life this time last year, rattling off three top-10 finishes in October, including in the Dunhill Links and in strong company at the Italian Open, where Wiesberger got the better of Fitzpatrick.

When last seen on the European Tour he finished 28th in Qatar, at a new course, where his approach play was strong. Whether tougher conditions make things so simple remains to be seen, but the key to this tournament last year was approach play - Wiesberger and Hebert were among the best three in the field and fought out that tiresome play-off. Wang, at his best, excels in that department, as he does in the wind.

There are concerns such as his poor record in the Scottish Open and the fact he's yet to venture outside of his homeland, but at 150/1 with eight places or 200/1 with six, this serious talent and proven winner gets the vote.

At silly prices, Ewen Ferguson has shown enough to be considered on his debut in this while there have even been some signs of life from Shubhankar Sharma, a 400/1 chance who remains with class and potential. Unfortunately his driver has become too much of an issue but, like Wang, he did join the party late last year and could yet do so in 2020.

J.B. Hansen's best efforts have come in the breeze and when conditions have been tough, such as in Oman and Paris, and he's playing well, while Matt Southgate will love this. The latter looked like winning the Dunhill Links late last year, has also gone close in Oman, and was the last name off the shortlist.

The final spot though goes to RICHIE RAMSAY, who knows the course as well as anyone - an advantage which could be multiplied in nasty weather.

An opening 65 last year showed what he can do when the sun is shining and the greens are soft, but short-hitting Ramsay - a former US Amateur champion, remember - is much better served by a grind. His knowledge of these fairly dramatic greens combined with the right attitude for a challenge make him of prime candidate to go well at a course where he's a member.

Like Southgate, he's been making cuts without contending but it may well be that he just needs the right sort of challenge, which this should be. When he gets that, Ramsay remains capable of contending as we saw in the Open de France a year ago and at Wentworth and in the Dunhill Links before that. Fifth place in the British Masters further demonstrates that he's the type to raise his game close to home and he's done so before in this when sixth in 2016.

Now based in Edinburgh, this really is a home game and the pinched fairways, thick rough, bad weather and even absence of fans could prove the perfect combination for another proven grinder who knows how to win.

Posted at 2010 BST on 28/09/20

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