US Women's Open golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for major championship

Golf betting tips: US Women's Open

3pts win Inbee Park at 11/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Hannah Green at 33/1 (BetVictor, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Amy Yang at 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Eun-Hee Ji at 125/1 (William Hill, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In so many ways the story of the US Women’s Open over the last 25 years is like the story of women’s golf in the same period. Back in 1998 Se Ri Pak won at Blackwolf Run, a result that on its own prompted headlines but what it triggered was astounding.

In fact, what it triggered was an extraordinary amount of triggering, as lots of Korean girls were inspired to follow in Pak’s footsteps and take on the world. Perhaps the best way to visualise what happened is to think of a grand firework display. Pak was the rocket that started everything, shooting high into the sky, making everyone gasp at the heights she achieved. After a brief pause, the skies have continued to be lit up by further flashes of light, prompting more gasps of shock and delight from onlookers.

The metaphor is apt because Korean wins in the US Women’s Open have exploded much as the follow up fireworks do: there’s one we expected, and another, then boom! Who saw that one coming. Bang! Where did that come from. Crash! There’s another behind you.

Birdie Kim was the first to emulate Pak, in 2005, and while she’d claimed a win on the second tier, her breakthrough at the top level came off the back of just two top-40 finishes in 33 LPGA starts and rounds of 76-80 the week before her win at Cherry Hills. Three years later it was Inbee Park’s turn and she’d flagged her potential with a deluge of top 10s. Much could be said of her successor Eun-Hee Ji.

In contrast, So Yeon Ryu won in just her eighth LPGA start in 2011, In Gee Chun also in her eighth in 2012, Sung Hyun Park in her 22nd, Jeong Eun Lee 6 in her 17th, and then, last December, A Lim Kim lit up the skies out of leftfield in just her third sighting at this level.

How is it possible that such numbers emerge so ready to compete in the toughest event on the schedule? One simple possibility is that the KLPGA is that good. Anecdotal evidence suggests that when the LET held co-sanctioned events in Korea the bias towards home players was often comical, but it goes deeper than that. Those around the KLPGA reveal that the circuit has a pronounced bias toward its best players which means anyone emerging from below has overcome huge hurdles. The majors maybe don’t seem very difficult after that.

If that addresses, to some degree, the obvious modern trend of this tournament (Koreans have won nine of the last 13 editions, Americans seven of the last 19), what of this year’s host course The Olympic Club in San Francisco? This is the first time the venue has welcomed the women, but the men have played there five times, most recently in 1998 and 2012.

It has an extremely notable characteristic: fairways which often tilt left to right or right to left, frequently kicking balls into the rough. Back in 2012 Tiger Woods said: "There's a big premium on driving the golf ball and shaping it. You have to curve it more off the tees here than any other golf course that we play. It seems like the majority of the doglegs kind of run away from you. It puts a big premium on game planning. What you want to do, where you want to hit it, and being committed to that."

Jordan Spieth was a 19-year-old championship rookie that year, but the eloquence we’ve come to expect was already in evidence. "Off the tee, it's very demanding," he said. "The fairways are severely sloped so even though it's an average width of 25 yards throughout the course, you really only have ten yards to hit it in."

The obvious first thought, then, is to find players who shape the ball well and are accurate from the tee. In the last quarter century of US Men’s Opens, the event here in 2012 had fairways which ranked fourth toughest to hit and 1998 was equal fifth. But I wonder. Missed fairways and tilted shots from the cut grass suggests a lot of missed greens to me and the scrambling stats over the last 25 years are every bit as interesting as the fairways hit. The 1998 event was the toughest week of scrambling in that period and 2012 was equal third. So I will look for good shapers/game planners, but I want good scramblers too.

So, who ranks top 10 for both finding fairways and saving par? The trio of Jin Young Ko, INBEE PARK and So Yeon Ryu, that’s who. Three players who are also pretty savvy when it comes to sticking with game plans. They’re all at the top of the market, the first is the world number, the second a two-time US Open winner, the third got her breakthrough in the event.

I want one of them on-side, but how to split the decision? Ko leaves the equation first based on a wrist injury which has hampered her starts and results this year, and Ryu joins her because, despite finding form this season, she’s not won in over two years.

That leaves Park, who is a short price, but deserves it and I’d argue could easily be shorter. Yes, she hasn’t won a major since 2015, but she gets herself involved in plenty and I find it hard to believe she’ll not add to her tally: she’s got tied eighth, tied seventh, tied sixth, fourth and second in her last seven major starts alone.

She also has a first, second and third in the bag this season, the third on her last stroke play start, and she won’t be too over-exerted after a solid venture into the early knockout stages of last week’s match play event. Sophia Popov made the final there, losing out to Ally Ewing, and commented on exhaustion following seven matches in high temperatures – it’s something to also bear in mind about losing semi-finalist Ariya Jutanugarn.

Lydia Ko has won in San Francisco and can shape the ball, but her price is affected by reputation (and her win earlier this season). I respect the chances of Hyo Joo Kim, but second selection is her fellow Korean AMY YANG.

A few years ago I followed her at Royal Birkdale and recalled also watching her finish second at Royal St David’s. On both occasions she impressed with her ball flight, whether low, draw or fade. I asked her later if she enjoyed links golf and she said she wasn’t sure she’d ever played it. Possibly a case of lost in translation, also possible that it is sometimes better to be blissfully ignorant.

Yang has enjoyed the Australian sand belt courses as well as British linksland and I like that those traditional designs call for seeing shaped shots. She’s also had success in this tournament: seven top-10 finishes including a pair of seconds and a third. The clincher is that her last two starts have reaped T12 and tied third.

I’ll make it three Korean picks by adding 2009 winner of this event EUN-HEE JI who, like Yang, has plenty of good efforts on classic designs with dog legs and fast running fairways. She’s been tied fifth at the Old Course, third at Sunningdale, second at Commonwealth, and was fourth over the road from the Olympic Club at Lake Merced. She also got improving form (T66-T27-last eight last week).

Completing the staking plan is the Aussie HANNAH GREEN, who won her first major in 2019, the KPMG Championship, closed last year with second at the Tour Championship, and her last three stroke play results read: third, second, tied seventh.

After the latter effort she said: "I’m super happy to see how things are coming along. Feel like we're not far off, so pretty exciting. Hopefully I can keep peaking at the right events and hopefully have a trophy one day soon."

She’s been mentored for a long time by Australian legend Karrie Webb and she’d dearly love to emulate her and win this title. Green is a more than capable ball-striker and excelled in scrambling when winning her first major.

Posted at 0900 BST on 01/06/21

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