European Tour: Wales Open in-play betting preview and tips ahead of final round

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2pts Gavin Green to finish in the top 10 at 15/8

Whilst not quite deja vu, the leaderboard going into the final round of the Wales Open has a familiar ring to it.

Even ignoring Edoardo Molinari's bounce back to form on a course he remembers well from the 2010 Ryder Cup, four of the current top-10 finished on the first page last week, while a few other in-form players base themselves in the top-30 looking to increase their hopes of making that top-10 in the UK Swing Order of Merit and a tee-time at the US Open. With only one event to go, these thoughts have to play on their minds.

Despite conditions proving far different from last week, accuracy and green-finding are again key, and with the increased wind factor there has been added pressure on the short game and scrambling. Conditions are expected to be slightly easier on Sunday but we won't be approaching anything like the 18-under score of Sam Horsfield, who probably lacked motivation this week after his second victory and a place at Winged Foot assured.

Key to a good golf course is that there are no gimme holes and if they repeat last Sunday's pin at the driveable 15th, a bogey is almost as likely as a birdie. Horsfield was tremendous from the front, being the only one in contention to take a short iron and wedge to that 350-odd yard hole and while only recording a par, he took all danger out of play. With the tricky par-three 17th and a par-five final hole over water, we could be in for one of those weeks and it is easy to see where and how this place was built with the Ryder Cup in mind.

Sitting behind Horsfield last week were Belgian World Cup winners, Thomas Detry and namesake Pieters, and the latter is again showing his class. Nowhere near his best this week, he still threatens just four off the lead and having birdied the final four holes of the Celtic Classic will certainly not fear the run in. Once again, he is expected to make a charge towards the top and that exchange price of over 8/1 could look big by the turn.

Pieters has only four in front of him, one of those being the aforementioned Dodo Molinari. Once top-20 in the world, Molinari is a confidence player and only two players hit more greens in the third round, his short-game having kept him in it before that. Past results suggest he has true grit when in contention - witness Gleneagles in 2010 when needing three birdies in three holes to win and a come-from-behind victory in Morocco in 2017 - but it has been a while since showing much and he is of far more interest for next week's event at The Belfry.

Sami Valimaki was mentioned in Ben Coley's outright preview as his price came crashing down on Monday. As seems to befit the board here this week, the Finn closed to a sixth place finish in the Celtic Classic and given the way he proved nerveless in the desert against Brandon Stone both down the stretch and in the play-off, he has to have every chance. Valimaki was alongside Molinari in greens hit in the third round and got up and down every time he failed to, his sole blemish a three-putt bogey at the closing hole.

He's a threat, but the top two have a nice break on the field and both showed how well they can cope with the breeze during round three, particularly Sebastian Soderberg who I had put up in the Lost For Words podcast at a big price.

The 29-year-old Swede, yet another to demonstrate the proficiency of the Nordic and Scandinavian players in any Celtic event, impressed many viewers with his iron play last week, finishing only 10th as his putter went cold and missing virtually every chance he had coming home. Three-figure prices were silly given his high ranking for strokes-gained-approach-the-green and scrambling and he was probably the most popular of the longer prices having been mentioned by several good judges.

His supporters have every reason to be confident of a place at least given he ranks highly in both GIR and scrambling thus far this week. In his interview he made no bones about the fact that it's a case of the tougher the better for this cracking short-game exponent but, as he proved in his five-man play-off at Crans, he has not only the game for tricky tracks but the nerve to hold firm whatever is thrown at him. Given his three victories on both Challenge and European Tours have been courtesy of final rounds of 65,66 and 67, I don't see him dropping away - they will need to go and get him.

That they are playing three-balls tomorrow is a change that may not suit too many. Apart from Pieters just in behind, the final trio look extremely solid and I genuinely couldn't call it, although I have last week's 54-hole leader as the outsider and he is in fact favourite.

Connor Syme performed with huge credit to hold on to a top-five finish in the Celtic Classic, no doubt. He must surely have learned from playing with the eventual winner and it will be interesting to see if he looks as nervous through the round. As accurate as they come when in full flow, the Scot will bid to become the fifth winner of the UK swing to have come into the event in rude health. The issue with that stat is that his three main dangers also fall into that category but it is a must when assessing things for next week.

So what to play? My eyes will be firmly stuck to the leaders but there seems to be one logical small bet to be had away from the front.

Malaysian GAVIN GREEN has been well backed in the last two events but hasn't quite justified the support with consistent performances.

Ranking top-20 in relevant stats he has again started the tournament slowly with a 73/71 start comparing to last week's 70/69. However, Saturday's third-round, four-birdie 68 gives signs that he is ready to repeat another low final round.

While it is impossible to expect another 63 in much tougher conditions, the 26-year-old former amateur star is very capable of landing his eighth sub-70 round in his last 10 Sundays and securing a place on the front page. On that basis, prices just shy of 2/1 for a top-10 finish look a tad too big although those on each-way from the start may of course wish to stick to that position, for all that winning looks a stretch.

Posted at 2015 on 22/08/20

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