In-form golf expert Ben Coley previews this week's Volvo China Open, where Hao-Tong Li defends his title.
Recommended bets:
1pt e.w. Haydn Porteous at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - eye-catching recently and went well here on debut
1pt e.w. Nacho Elvira at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - big-hitting Spaniard a previous winner in China
1pt e.w. Pablo Larrazabal at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - full of confidence which makes him dangerous
0.75pt e.w. Romain Wattel at 160/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - striking the ball well as he did here in 2016
One year's evidence is nowhere near enough for a dogmatic view, but it seems fair to expect another low-scoring shootout as the Volvo China Open pays a second visit to Topwin Golf & Country Club, situated in the shadows of the Great Wall.
That was certainly the case one year ago, as Hao-Tong Li confirmed his status as the leading young Chinese talent by taking his first European Tour title in style thanks to a bogey-free 64, closing the door on a host of challengers who emerged from the pack on a strange Sunday which saw several of the key players falter.
Li returns out of form and 45/1, but such was the style of his success that he's not to be quickly dismissed. He had missed the cut in the Shenzhen International prior to winning and, as is typical of most 21-year-olds, form comes and goes quickly.
However, defending a title as significant to Chinese players as this one is not just an honour but a burden, one he'll do well to overcome, and ready preference is for another aggressive young Asian by the name of Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
Now 27, the Thai isn't far from veteran status when viewed alongside Li, but the reality is he still has plenty of improvement left in the locker and seems certain to add to his three European Tour titles collected across three very different courses.
One of them came after a play-off with Li in Shenzhen two years ago and his form in China is strong enough to take a chance that this course will suit on debut.
A mid-length par 72, Topwin's most obvious challenge on paper appears to be to find the right portion of undulating greens but last year's renewal suggests it's there for the taking and seems to represent a fairly level playing field.
Certainly, a leaderboard which includes bombers Scott Hend and Lucas Bjerregaard along with straight-shooters like Richie Ramsay and Felipe Aguilar suggests as much, so there's not much to hang our hats on especially with conflicting comments from some of last year's contenders.
All of which is to say that Aphibarnrat shouldn't find himself disadvantaged by never having played it competitively and in a much-of-a-muchness market, he stands out of those towards the top end at 33/1.
Aphibarnrat was a huge eye-catcher last week in Shenzhen, where he was six-over through eight holes on a low-scoring course yet rallied to finish tied for 21st, shooting two bogey-free rounds and playing 58 of his closing 60 holes in par or better.
Over the course of the week, Aphibarnrat's 21 birdies matched eventual champion Bernd Wiesberger and having ranked inside the top 10 for greens hit, he demonstrated enough long-game control to appear primed for a step forward.
Having started the season with a share of fourth alongside Wiesberger in Abu Dhabi and followed it up with ninth in Qatar, Aphibarnrat then endured a difficult couple of events but he's been back on track since, tends to go well in the spring regardless, and is more than capable of finding the necessary improvement.
Wiesberger deserves favouritism but has tended to struggle immediately following a win, while Sunday's unexpected and unnecessary drama will have taken its toll mentally, especially having endured a frustrating 18 months of near-misses.
Ross Fisher is a similar price and appears to have taken his own run of close-calls in the right spirit so it would be no surprise were he to go well, but taking 10/1 about players of his profile in a field which does have a degree of depth makes very little appeal.
Instead, I'll chance Haydn Porteous building on recent promise to land his second European Tour title.
This young South African has long had a massive reputation, just like compatriot and friend Brandon Stone, and it was fun to watch the pair bounce off each other and trade wins early last season.
While Stone has produced the better golf since and remains a more promising long-term prospect, it was Porteous who really caught the eye last week as he had done once or twice previously and, at much the bigger price, he's easier to fancy.
Porteous finished in a share of 19th here last year, breaking 70 on all four days, and after a miserable run in which he couldn't make a cut, he's now made five in succession, including when shooting a 10-birdie 67 last Thursday.
Prior to that, he was one of just three players to open with a 77 or worse yet make the cut in the Trophee Hassan, where he closed with a seven-birdie 68 on a golf course which just isn't suited to his youthful aggression.
Having also offered glimpses in his previous three starts, it's clear that Porteous is getting his confidence back and the emphasis on attacking play on this seemingly low-scoring layout shout enable him to take another step forward.
It's also worth noting that last year's round-of-the-week came from Hennie Otto, who after opening with a brilliant 63 said that this was a course South Africans should feel at home on. The hope is that logic applies to Porteous who looks value at 100s and bigger.
Nicolas Colsaerts finished well last week and isn't without a chance at 100s, given that he's a former champion with a fine record in China and was third entering the final round last year, only to shoot level par on Sunday and fall down the leaderboard.
Short-game woes are the issue for Colsaerts, who continues to strike the ball well, while the nagging doubt as to how Bjerregaard performs in the mix is enough to strike another big-hitter off the list at a venue which does appear to offer opportunities to those who thrash it off the tee.
Nacho Elvira falls into the same category but has more to recommend him at 80/1.
The Spaniard missed the cut here last year, a concern given that he was in good form at the time, but he's worth affording the benefit of that doubt following a really promising weekend in the Shenzhen International.
Elvira made the cut on the number before a 68-66 weekend saw him climb to 25th, in the process building on a fine record in China which includes victory in the Foshan Open on the Challenge Tour.
Although yet to win at this level, Elvira was right in among the biggest names on the circuit in the Middle East earlier this season, while almost exactly a year ago he was most unfortunate not to win the Trophee Hassan in Morocco.
Inbetween these efforts he bagged another four top-10 finishes and given that Li's victory came courtesy of a dominant par-four performance, and that Elvira has played them superbly this year, he's worth chancing at the price.
Elvira's compatriot Pablo Larrazabal is another who arrives with momentum, having produced what he described as some of the best golf of his career last weekend.
The passionate Spaniard went bogey-free in shooting 67-66 and while he too has to show that he can adapt to this course, having narrowly missed the cut in 2016, he's unquestionably in much better form this time around.
When Larrazabal is in form, he's a danger to all - as four European Tour titles at the expense of high-class opposition demonstrate.
He won the Open de France as an unknown qualifier, beat Sergio Garcia in the BMW International Open, held off Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson in Abu Dhabi and then won the BMW again, this time getting the better of Henrik Stenson.
There's an argument to be made for Larrazabal excelling only in elite fields, but to my mind it's more a question of motivation and, having lost form in the spring, he's definitely been given a boost by watching Garcia win the Masters.
The so-called inspiration factor is impossible to quantify, but it makes sense to me that Larrazabal - a huge fan of Garcia whose proudest achievement was beating him in Germany - would see events at Augusta as inspiration, not just to play well now but to really work towards earning a place in the field himself one day.
Whatever the trigger for Larrazabal's return to form, the fact is he's dropped hints in both starts since Sergio's emotional success so he heads to the tee in a great frame of mind, ready perhaps to put four rounds together and threaten the favourites.
Back-to-back home winners of this event demand that we at least consider some of the homegrown youngsters, but as best I can tell none are ready to follow in Li's footsteps and I will finish off with Romain Wattel.
It's now almost seven years since Wattel won on the Challenge Tour while still an amateur and then finished ninth at European Tour Qualifying School, so it's without doubt disappointing that he remains without a top-tier win.
However, he's one I'm nowhere near ready to give up on and there was some promise in his play last week, despite a couple of nightmares at the 18th, as there has been for some time.
Wattel led the field in ball-striking here last year, topped the greens-in-reg charts in India recently and need only find a bit of confidence around the greens to start climbing back towards the upper echelons of the European Tour, which is where I firmly believe he belongs.
A solid record in China which includes 15th place here at Topwin, Wattel is worth a speculative play at prices in the region of 150/1.
Posted at 2125 BST on 24/04/17.
