Jhonattan Vegas can build on last year's third place and make a bright start in the PLAYERS, where Ben Coley has been looking for value in the specials markets.
First-round leader
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Keith Mitchell at 110/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Rory Sabbatini at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Despite its big field and heavy footfall on tricky greens, the PLAYERS Championship has not appeared to give much of an advantage to the early starters over the years.
In 2019, Tommy Fleetwood posted a morning 65 which was matched in the afternoon by Keegan Bradley. A year earlier, when the tournament was played in May, six players shared the lead: they were split evenly between morning and afternoon tee-times.
This theme continues as we look back over the last decade, but if the weather forecast is right, those who get their scores in early this Thursday might just hold the edge. There's next to no wind in the forecast until mid-afternoon, when it could get up to around 10mph, and those in the last groups out might face even more than that at around 6pm.
Playing the 17th hole in a 15mph breeze versus no breeze at all is a significant disadvantage, one the likes of Matthew Fitzpatrick and Jason Day - if he makes it that far - may have to overcome. Those off the 10th might find things less tricky, which is good news for Shane Lowry, but posting the lead from one of these groups is going to be a challenge.
Matt Every showed last week that it can still be done, but on balance I have to take Mackenzie Hughes out of the staking plan. Second in the Honda Classic last time, Hughes held a share of the lead in 2017, his debut here, and he's also started fast at another Pete Dye design in the Travelers Championship.
Even during a couple of fallow years he's been a strong starter - Hughes was inside the top 25 in round one scoring last season but outside the top 100 in each of the other three - and having played the best golf in the field over the weekend of the Honda, he was the first name on the shortlist. Regrettably, he's landed in the one section of the draw which looks vulnerable.
Instead, the best bet is JHONATTAN VEGAS, who is in the third group off the 10th tee.
It's interesting that last year's co-leaders had tied for seventh in the previous year's PLAYERS, and it supports the idea that those who arrive with confidence that they can tackle this fearsome course might be at an advantage.
Sawgrass can be a real grind for those either unaccustomed to it or with demons to lay to rest, and the fact Vegas produced his best performance of 2019 here immediately catches the eye.
It's also worth noting that both Fleetwood and Bradley rank among the best drivers on the circuit. Moving the event to March meant for softer conditions, more lush rough, and come the end of the week the best driver in the world was at the top of the leaderboard. While it's a little drier this year, the course is very green and not yet firm, so we could see a similar tilt towards those who excel off the tee.
Vegas is one of them. In fact, last season he was second only to McIlroy in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and he sits fourth so far this time around. That comfort with driver or three-wood in hand is really encouraging and so is his record here, which includes sixth after round one last year and seventh on his second visit.
He's led after the first round of the Honda as well as at TPC Louisiana, another Dye design, while his form is solid. Vegas made a bright start in Saudi Arabia, shooting 65, closed with a brilliant 62 in Puerto Rico, and produced four solid rounds for 27th a fortnight ago.
I really like that he has so many low rounds to his name here - 10 of 24 in the sixties, with a couple of 66s and a couple of 67s - and from what looks an ideal slot he's the best bet at a three-figure price.
A bright start to Thursday should mean the temperature picks up quickly and those first out, with fresh greens in front of them for the first nine, should have no excuses on that score. Russell Henley is therefore interesting, as is consistently solid Cameron Tringale, while some will I'm sure be willing to chance Every in the group ahead of Vegas.
But from the first group on the first tee, RORY SABBATINI catches my eye.
Slovakia's finest has rediscovered his long game over the last couple of weeks, ranking 11th and ninth in greens hit and fourth and 18th in driving accuracy, and his tidy game has seen him reemerge as a consistent contender since he switched allegiances from his native South Africa.
His overall improvement is reflected in his Sawgrass form figures, which read a really solid 30-35 over the last two years, and on his last visit before a break he finished an excellent sixth behind Rickie Fowler.
"You know, it took me a long time to figure out this golf course and then over the last couple years I started to figure it out and unfortunately I missed being here the last two years through the injury that I had," he said in 2018. "But the last time I played I finished sixth. So I felt really good about the way I played and this feels like I'm building on the momentum from a couple years ago. I enjoy the course."
Sabbatini's last first-round lead came at Harbour Town, another Dye design and perhaps the one which most resembles Sawgrass. He's also been second after the first round at TPC Louisiana and has shot 65 at TPC River Highlands, while over the last two years he has four top-eights in seven first rounds in Florida.
There's a slight worry about an absence of really low rounds here, but go back far enough and he has in fact led after an opening 67. Again, fast starts here have been fairly common, and over the last two years he's shot 67 for seventh and 68 for eighth. It's not asking much for him to find one or two more and set a demanding early target.
Talor Gooch holds some appeal after a bright start last week. He's a player I'm very keen on - in terms of profile, he could be this year's J.T. Poston, regularly catching the eye without quite contending before a breakout win somewhere fairly low-key - and he's played Sawgrass well in his junior days.
Gooch is around 3/1 with a couple of firms for a top-40 finish which is too big, and he's of some interest here. If you're wanting to spread your first-round bets across the tee-times, he's off in the early afternoon and is the most likeable option ahead of Chesson Hadley, who says he loves Dye designs and has shared the lead here in the past, and Sam Burns, a debutant who could go well.
My focus though is on those morning where KEITH MITCHELL can build on fifth place last week.
A final-round 71 at Bay Hill won't leap off the page unless you watched the action and recall the fact that only two players shot better scores on Sunday, both of whom teed off earlier than last year's Honda Classic champion.
Mitchell sat fifth after round one despite teeing off in the afternoon and has the look of a player who is getting back to his best, having caught the eye a couple of times on the west coast before returning to more comfortable surroundings.
In last year's PLAYERS his second-round 65 was bettered by only one player - there were in fact just two lower scores all week - and on debut in 2018, having got in as an alternate the day before, he opened with a round of 67 to lie seventh.
As an excellent driver of the ball, with two very good scores in the bag from just seven rounds here, and a morning tee-time, he's the final selection at around 100/1.
Top Englishman
Recommended bets
4pts win Tommy Fleetwood at 11/4
There are eight players who are looking to become the first English winner of the PLAYERS Championship, but few of them look realistic candidates this week.
Justin Rose is all at sea, Danny Willett has an abysmal record at the course, and that's also true of both Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, between them yet to manage better than 41st in a grand total of seven starts.
Course form isn't everything and I couldn't draw a line through Fitzpatrick, but he does look short enough after a backdoor top-10 finish at Bay Hill, where Hatton secured his PGA Tour breakthrough. Over in Europe, he's gone back-to-back before, but at a course as demanding as this one I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him suffer a brief dip in form.
Matt Wallace showed more last week but still isn't convincing, and for a player of Paul Casey's class it's shocking to see that he's made the weekend here in just four of his 11 visits. Last year he shot 78-74 to depart early and while better on his previous couple of starts, he's never produced a really low number here and it doesn't appear to play to his strengths.
Meet Tommy Fleetwood, the actor and Paul Casey, the race car driver.
— Titleist (@Titleist) August 29, 2018
We asked Titleist players what they would be if they weren't professional golfers. pic.twitter.com/CuBSfSeDUV
Suddenly we're left with just two solid candidates and I think it's worth backing both TOMMY FLEETWOOD and IAN POULTER.
Fleetwood's Sawgrass record is exemplary and his missed cut last week may prove to be a blessing in disguise. Rather than another tough weekend in the breeze, he had the chance to reset and take stock following a near-miss in the Honda Classic, and he should be right back on track here from a decidedly low-key group.
Poulter produced one of the performances of his career to finish second here in 2017, one which was vital in what followed a year later when he won in Houston and made his Ryder Cup return having been absent from a thrashed 2016 side.
He'll have eyes on Whistling Straits in September and the PLAYERS, where he's made 13 of 16 cuts, was 11th in 2018 and sat third at halfway last year, is a key event for him. Poulter is just perfectly suited to the demands of Sawgrass and at 14/1 in a place, his chances in this market have been seriously underestimated.
Dutching him and Fleetwood at the best available odds makes for a rock-solid 2/1 shot and that's the best way to attack the specials.
Posted at 1130 GMT on 10/03/20
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