Free golf betting tips for SA Open final round Sunday December 6

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Scott Vincent (without Bezuidenhout) at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

3.5pts Joost Luiten to beat Hennie Du Plessis at 4/7

Golf.

As Andy Sullivan showed us just a few hours ago, it ain't over till it's over.

Although probably not the time to review the Golf in Dubai Championship, a quick mention for the winner, Antione Rozner, often on the radar of our chief columnist and put up at least a couple of times this year by our group of writers. Whilst admitting he didn't see a leaderboard until the 72nd green, that's the way you play a relatively easy course and fair dues for getting rewarded for some excellent tee-to-green figures this year.

Dubai overnight leader (for three consecutive days) Sullivan will be hugely disappointed at having given this one away. Whilst Rozner, Franceso Laporta and Dubai stalwart Mike Lorenzo-Vera were making hay, two poor errors (the first putt on the eight and the tee shot on 16) basically cost him the title, and that without even being anywhere near his best for the other 16 holes.

All this should serve as a warning to the likes of home favourites Christiaan Bezhuidenhout and Dylan Frittelli as they attempt to win the SA Open at Sun City, where Gary Player's golf course waits ready to punish anything wild.

As with last week's Alfred Dunhill, the links to the likes of Valderrama and similar courses are noticeable. Many of the top 15 or so have recorded good efforts there and it is no surprise to have seen the aforementioned home favourite and his playing partner, Jamie Donaldson, having form around that infamous course, whilst challenger Joost Luiten and Saturday mover Connor Syme boast similar credentials there.

Having put up superb all-round displays when winning at Valderrama, finishing 15th at Joburg and when gagging up at Leopard Creek seven days ago, Bezhuidenhout has repeated the feat for the first three rounds here. Leading in strokes-gained approach and for overall tee-to-green, it is that huge confidence on the greens that is setting him apart from the rest.

At halfway, Bez was recording a tee-to-green figure of around +5,5, less than a shot ahead of future star Jayden Schaper and with Wilco Nienaber and David Law just behind that. Showing just how good the world number 41 is in comparison when it comes to getting the ball in the hole, he now needs binoculars to find those rivals. Impressive after dropping three shots at the end of last week's final front-nine and on another course that requires patience, great temperament and a quality all-round game, he doesn't look as if he is going anywhere.

As we saw earlier nothing is out of the question in this sport, but after a supremely methodical round the jolly has a five-shot lead and is virtually impossible to oppose in his attempt to be the first to win back-to-back on the European Tour since Justin Rose in 2017. It would be some fortnight, winning his first two co-sanctioned titles on home soil, and doing so at perhaps his country's most famous and fearsome courses.

Second in the pre-event market having been fifth in the Masters recently, proven PGA Tour winner Frittelli can't be discounted but he looked poor on the greens on Saturday, missing three consecutive short putts to fall from just two behind to four off the pace early on and then missing a few fair birdie chances soon after.

His iron play was also not of the standard required here and there is not enough in recent stats or in the tables this week to suggest he can suddenly recover his best form. I'm not sure how he retains a place in the final two-ball having been most productive when saving shots rather than making ground, and though he's the one with eyes on the leader there's no temptation to chance him at single-figure prices to overturn a big deficit.

Dean Burmester was put up on these pages early in the week and has the ability if he can find a little methodology. Always hard on himself, the big-hitting local looked frustrated by even some of his better shots in the third round and while dangerous from off the pace, he may need to avoid a mistake to have any kind of chance to win. That looks unlikely, and with Jamie Donaldson having struggled to get over the line and with a back injury lately, the way is clear for Bezuidenhout to complete a dream fortnight.

Surely one of the classier players and one of Ben Coley's other pre-event selections, JOOST LUITEN will hit the top again one day soon. Once ranked in the world's top 30, he has been extremely inconsistent this year, letting punters down through the much easier events at the start of post-lockdown, but there have been signs that this excellent wind player can strike soon.

Form at Valderrama, Portugal and at the KLM are enough evidence that he can play difficult tracks and he has shown this week that his putting prowess has returned, ranking just ahead of Burmester - despite taking four putts from just off the 17th green to likely lose his winning chance after working his way into the tournament. Slowly progressive and superb with his irons at times, he did nothing wrong besides that and is one to be with for his two-ball.

The 34-year-old Dutchman has recorded final rounds of 69 or less in four of his last five completed events and when combined with last year's 10th place at the Nedbank here won by Tommy Fleetwood, looks one of a limited number of players that could have beaten a strong home contingent. As mentioned, that win chance has probably gone but it gives him a run at Hennie Du Plessis tomorrow and he is well-fancied to beat the home player, even at short odds.

Du Plessis is the winner of just one minor event in 103 starts, and though he has played well this week things get a good deal more serious on Sunday. Recent final rounds of 72 and 73 are average from outside of the coverage but it's that last round of 77 at the Royal Swazi that catches the eye and he will have not experienced quite the attention should he find himself still there at the turn.

The talented Matthias Schwab is top-class from tee-to-green but there is little point in gaining huge amounts of shots without exploiting that asset and his putting woes continue to affect him, whilst the likes of improvers Nienaber and Syme are probably too far back to count without getting a lot of help from an unflappable leader.

There doesn't seem much of a chance for a 64 and, as such, anybody outside the current top nine or so looks to face an impossible task so while followers of Ben's column are watching both Burmy and Luiten, my eyes are on my own pre-event selection SCOTT VINCENT.

A stalwart on the Asian Tour, the 28-year-old Zimbabwean seems to relish the tougher events as witnessed by his top-ranked effort, a fourth at the Japan Open (won in one-over 288), and last week's top-20 in Joburg. They are certainly not the only highlights with a tied-eighth in Portugal this year and another top-10 at Andy Sullivan's romp at Hanbury Manor and he was firing at pins for most of the third round.

An unfortunate bogey at the tough 16th has probably taken him out of the reckoning for win purposes (even if Rozner from four behind is fresh in the memory) but he struck the ball superbly late on, highlighted by a monster approach out of the rough on 18. Given he was a closing fourth in this event in 2018 (at Glendower, finishing just behind JC Ritchie and in front of the likes of Charl Schwartzel and Frittelli) he rates a spot of value at 12/1 without the favourite.

Vincent is also around the 6/4 mark for a top-five finish which does appeal plenty, but if he manages that we're likely to get the place money at 12s (1/4 1,2,3) and he's a big price for one so capable, given he's only two back. Those on 10-under might pay the price for going in pursuit of the leader whereas Vincent is far enough back to take one shot at a time, and that's vital around a course as penal as this.

It's been a strange but somewhat fun season. Be lucky next week and if you don't listen to the @LostForePod see you next season!

Posted at 1650 GMT on 05/12/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.