Jason Kokrak is the pick of the value on Thursday's three-ball coupon as the PGA Championship marks the start of a busy stretch of majors. Ben Coley has the preview.
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2pts Jason Kokrak to win his three-ball at 6/4
The PGA Championship might be the best of the four majors for a three-ball bet, or else second to The Masters which is the best for just about anything and everything. In both cases, fields are filled with players with no chance at all of winning, and very little chance of making the weekend, facts which are reflected in those markets. And yet I tend to believe they're underpriced in three-balls, for all this is the most volatile type of wager where golf is concerned.
Year after year, the PGA professionals turn up here and depart before the weekend, typically shooting scores in the high-70s or low-80s, almost always well beaten in their particular group. Year after year, they get quoted at 5/1 or 11/2 when they should, in many cases, take up far less of the book.
Those who've the time and inclination to dig deep into the backgrounds of these relative unknowns could reap the rewards, but with several firms growing reluctant to price up their three-balls, I'll focus on those we know more about. There's opportunity here, too, especially the way the year has panned out so to speak, and a fair golf course removes some of the unpredictability you'll see at a silly US Open, with a fair weather forecast taking away the risks which come with any Open Championship bet.
There is some wind around on Thursday afternoon, but this is a TPC course whose set-up will be comfortingly familiar to the PGA Tour regulars, less so perhaps some of those travelling from further afield.
One such example is Ryo Ishikawa, who hasn't played a tour event since the spring and was last seen shooting 76-77 in the Honda Classic, a week after he'd trailed home in 68th of 72 players in the WGC-Mexico Championship. For all this one-time Japanese wonderkid pieced things back together in Asia last year, he's not been able to bring that form with him across the globe.
With just three tournament starts under his belt in 2020 he looks woefully prepared for a major championship and yet he's an 11/4 chance in a grouping with JASON KOKRAK and Rafa Cabrera Bello (1617 BST), better players, with more experience, greater levels of comfort and familiarity, no issues with rust, and who played in last week's World Golf Championship.
The only way I can see Ishikawa winning this three-ball is if his 77 happens to be good enough, and he's far shorter than he should be. Immediately that makes the market interesting, and then you'll see that Cabrera Bello was abysmal last week, finishing a tailed-off last in Memphis and doing precisely nothing well.
Kokrak answered a few questions there, finishing mid-pack and two-under - fully 17 ahead of the Spaniard - having withdrawn from his previous start. And it might have been better: he was the fourth-best driver in the field and ranked 18th in strokes-gained approach, those ball-striking strengths of his as good as they've been since play resumed.
Having nearly won at Colonial, his form is of a higher standard than that of Cabrera Bello, who is drifting into the wilderness at the moment. And he also has a better record in California, where he's been runner-up twice, equalling the best finish of his career at this level. With poa annua/bentgrass greens a good surface for this notoriously shaky putter, and his power a definite asset, he has plenty in his favour.
Of the marquee groupings, Justin Thomas is likely a good favourite against Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. Thomas has outscored Woods on nine of the 10 occasions they've teed off together on the PGA Tour, including all four major rounds, and it's clear he's very comfortable alongside the great man.
The dynamics are different here with the usual throng of Woods disciples reduced somewhat, but in 'new normal' terms there will be more people than usual and that's something JT will likely adjust to perfectly well. McIlroy, who earlier this summer complained about how many people were following his group, is less certain to adapt.
Given that he's also struggling, and that Woods is making just his second start since the resumption, odds-against about Thomas is fair. If he's able to pick up where he left off in Memphis he's the right favourite this week, and the 2017 champion is every inch the world number one ahead of tee-off.
All that being said, there's probably better value away from the glare of the cameras and it lies with KEVIN STREELMAN, who can beat Matt Jones and Jazz Janewattananond (2131 BST).
I actually put the latter in my antepost staking plan for this at 300/1, in the hope his rapid strides in Asia would be translated worldwide. That theory was supported by his contending effort behind Brooks Koepka in this tournament last May, but truth be told it hasn't happened and you can now get him at 600/1, bigger still on the exchanges, and rightly so.
That's because the likeable young Thai has missed his last four cuts, playing weekend golf only in the two WGCs either side of that sorry sequence. He didn't do a great deal in extremely weak, minor tour events during lockdown, and his game looks in disarray - especially on the greens. All this and yet he's around the 2/1 mark in a decent group with two solid PGA Tour players
Jones is playing reasonably well, and his form ties in with Streelman having been fifth when the American was second at Pebble Beach back in February. However, the Australian leans heavily on his short-game, and it won't be enough if he hits it as he did in Memphis, where he was stone last in approach play and by quite a distance, losing 10 shots to the field.
You just cannot do that in a major championship and expect to score well, which leaves Streelman with very little to beat. And the good news is he's a great candidate to take advantage: not flashy or sexy enough to be the price he probably should be, and yet playing some of the best, most consistent golf of his career. He's made all four cuts since finishing second at the Travelers, adding seventh place the following week, and there was nothing wrong with his game when 35th at Southwind, where he's never previously threatened.
A regular contender at Pebble Beach who has also gone close at Torrey Pines, Streelman has enough in his favour to keep up his run of cuts made this week. And while I wouldn't have been keen to side with him against anyone with a bit more in their locker off the tee, this group is made up of players who make their scores in other ways. Streelman is comfortably the best ball-striker among them right now and is a great bet at odds-against.
Posted at 0830 BST on 05/08/20
PGA Championship content
- Ben Coley's outright betting preview and selections
- PGA Championship specials betting preview and tips
- Lost Fore Words golf podcast featuring Ben Coley
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