Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler are David John's outright selections for this week's US Open at Erin Hills.
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It is crunch time for the USGA as they prepare to stage this week’s US Open at Erin Hills, 35 miles north-west of Milwaukee in Wisconsin.
The governing body has come in for a huge amount of flak – a lot well deserved - following the Chambers Bay greens fiasco and the handling of Dustin Johnson’s mid-round rules infraction 12 months ago so the pressure is on to deliver a national championship that everyone involved can be proud of.
They have rolled the dice selecting a fresh venue that is just 11 years old, one which has not staged a tournament of this magnitude beyond the 2011 US Amateur, and there has been mixed response so far from players as they filter into America’s mid-west to finalise their build-up.
Bar a handful who took part in 2011, this will be a brand new experience on a layout that has the potential to be stretched out to an eye-watering 8,000 yards with knee-deep fescue rough and some punitive-looking bunkers ready to gobble up the errant stroke.
On the brighter side, the event will be a par 72 for the first time in 25 years and will have some of the widest fairways ever seen.
The putting surfaces are strongly contoured, perfect hybrid bentgrass but not ‘tricked up’ while a lack of the usual thick rough around them will give players a variety of options to get up and down compared to the usual chop out with their most lofted wedge.
In terms of early reaction, Rory McIlroy has given the place a big thumbs-up. Kevin Na was less impressed as he attempted to hack his way out of the fescue with three swipes barely moving the ball before it disappeared for good into the undergrowth.
“We want something that is a challenge and interesting. Not just brutal,” Adam Scott said at a recent meeting with USGA supremo Mike Davis and I certainly echo his sentiments with absolutely no need for such a prestigious tournament to descend into farce once again.
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Kelly Kraft, who failed to qualify but won the US Amateur here, says the course plays long, hard and fast but “on paper looks a lot harder than it really is”.
There are no trees and wind on such an exposed property is the course’s main defence – there is little in the forecast (10 or 11mph) over all four days so some testing pins on slick surfaces will probably be the way officials choose to go.
I am fascinated to see how things play out and the analysis has to start with the Big Four who dominate the market – Johnson, Rory, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day.
All have legitimate rather than outstanding claims currently.
DJ was sensational in victory 12 months ago after he overcame hot pursuit down the fairway by a collection of rules’ jobsworths over whether or not his ball had moved illegally on the fifth green.
How his whole game did not turn to jelly is a measure of the man’s mental fortitude and a towering six iron to seal the deal on the 72nd hole was a thing of total and utter beauty.
I would wager he would have been a fair bit shorter than 8/1 if his form from the spring - three consecutive titles - had carried over to this point but he has not been quite at that level since the PLAYERS Championship and his last start saw him post rounds of 78-74 to miss the cut at The Memorial Tournament.
Johnson was expecting a new addition to the family last weekend so his arrival on the property is uncertain and thus preparation time will be limited as a result.
He managed to fit in a couple of practice rounds last week though and agent David Winkle reported his client “really liked the venue and it sets up beautifully for him”.
DJ will attempt to be the first man since Curtis Strange in 1989 to successfully defend the title but I have to question whether he will be fully zoned in on such a demanding task so is reluctantly given a swerve at the price.
McIlroy seems happy enough a troublesome rib injury has fully healed but there is definitely an element of guesswork over his competition readiness after another enforced absence since the PLAYERS.
He is still feeling his way with new clubs in the bag too so I am going to pass on the Irishman as well which leaves Spieth and Day as most likely to give favourite backers a run for their money.
Spieth came out on top two years ago at Chambers Bay and was in the field as a teenager in 2011 at the aforementioned US Amateur.
His claim that “I don’t remember a ton” about the course rather blows the theory out of the water he might have some sort of advantage but he will more than make up for it with the due diligence he and caddie Mike Grellar put in to go with a steely-eyed determination once battle commences.
Spieth feels his ball striking has been the best of his career so far in 2017 but that unbeatable approach on the greens he possesses when on song is just not there currently and is backed up by some pretty dreary stats in the 5-10 foot range, so important for momentum at this event.
Day looks the one running into form at the right time having been defeated in a play-off at the Byron Nelson and catching the eye around Muirfield Village when recovering from an opening 75 to crack the top 20.
He did admit at Sawgrass he was in “rebuild stage” but feels there has been progress to the extent he was able to add more recently that “I am really close to putting everything together”.
Could it all actually fall into place perfectly this week? Maybe, but it would be quite some achievement at a US Open even for a player of Day’s calibre.
With a recent roll of honour that reads Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer, Spieth and Johnson, it is hard to veer too far away from proven performers at the very top of the sport.
To that end, Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm look ideal candidates as outright tips as they attempt to join Sergio Garcia as a maiden major championship winner in 2017.
Rahm���������s whirlwind rise up the rankings has been incredible even by modern-day standards as we constantly hail the next big thing in the game every other month.
That has been the case for McIlroy and Spieth at some stage or other but Rahm has every opportunity to be equally dynamic having burst into the paid ranks on the back of a stellar collegiate career that saw him become the first player to ever win the Ben Hogan Award twice.
Competing on an invitation in 2015 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as an alumni of Arizona State University, not many amateurs rock up against the pros and finish T5 as he wowed galleries and observers alike with his sensational all-round game.
He has quickly progressed to PGA Tour winner after draining a snaking eagle putt on the 72nd hole for victory at Torrey Pines earlier this year and has excelled since in defeat after he made a red-hot DJ pull out all the stops at successive WGC events in Mexico and Texas.
It is hard to fathom at timesn that Rahm is still only 22 but these young bucks seem in no mood to hang about or build towards winning at this level in more gradual fashion having served the sort of apprenticeship you would have expected 25 or 30 years ago.
“Yes, I could win the US Open,” he said in a recent interview. “I think my game shapes up well to the challenge as I am fairly precise off the tee, have a good short game and good feel with the putter.”
All ideal credentials for Erin Hills - credentials which are vastly improved from 12 months ago when he finished an excellent T23 and was leading amateur medallist for the week at Oakmont.
The odd sign of frustration can still bubble to the surface and this is definitely not the place to lose your rag, but Rahm has a wonderfully affable, laid-back personality and it is not difficult to see him taking that next step up the ladder even though it might be a pretty sizeable one.
An 82 at the PLAYERS and a missed cut in The Memorial might not be too much of a setback looking at the bigger picture as he still managed to sandwich a T2 at Colonial in between before turning his attentions to this week.
On the back of compatriot Garcia's Augusta heroics, - “of course it was inspirational” - Rahm has a real shot of continuing Spain’s dream run in the sport while matching the incomparable Severiano Ballesteros' young age in bagging that first major.
If Phil Mickelson fails to make his tee-time (which seems highly likely) following his daughter’s high-school graduation, then Fowler will become firm favourite for the local support while sporting a bag daubed in the colours of the Green Bay Packers.
While Rahm is on a fast-track to the upper echelons, Fowler’s progress has been more steady but the time has arrived for him to really establish himself among the elite.
A missed cut at the FedEx St Jude Classic aside – more on that shortly – Fowler might just have the most complete profile currently and is well capable of putting himself in position for victory once more.
His latest opportunity to land himself a major came at the Masters in April and although perfectly poised after three rounds, it didn’t happen for the Californian as he drifted away to a T11 with a closing 76.
He might have expected better a fortnight ago at Muirfield Village as well when T2 behind Jason Dufner but he walked off the course with absolutely no complaints having hit the shots he wanted to when it mattered - it just happened playing partner Dufner was better on the day.
Ideally, you would perhaps rather not see his weekend exit in Memphis on the record as it was all part of the plan for Fowler to get in four more competitive rounds to finalise his schedule.
He never really got going though after a double and a triple bogey early on Thursday, but I was taken with the way he rallied late on Friday with a back-nine 32 to try to squeeze in for the final 36. He ultimately came up shy, but he showed spirit and it was clear evidence his game had not deserted him.
Fowler remains under pressure to finally produce at this level and he must put to bed that nagging doubt over whether he is perhaps nasty enough to trample over his rivals if necessary on the biggest of Sunday afternoons.
But his wonderful driving, pinpoint irons, smart short game and fearless putting look tailor-made for the challenge ahead and that makes him the man to beat in my book.
David's preview of the US Open specials markets will be published on Tuesday.
Posted at 1700 BST on 12/06/17.
