Golf expert Ben Coley looks ahead to the final round of the US Open, where Bryson DeChambeau can go on and win his first major championship.
Recommended bets
2pts Bryson DeChambeau to win the US Open at 12/5
1pt Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau to win their two-balls at 21/10
Ninety-seven years ago, Bobby Jones won the US Open at Inwood Country Club, aged 21. Almost a century passed before another 21-year-old, Jordan Spieth, won the title at Chambers Bay. Now, with a round to go at Winged Foot, Matthew Wolff seeks to do the same, just weeks after his college rival Collin Morikawa took the PGA Championship at a wise and weary 23.
Wolff produced one of the finest rounds you will see in a major championship, or indeed anywhere, to move into a two-shot lead at the end of the third round. His athletic skills are plain to see, but what impressed most was his management of those skills and of this fearsome course. Almost always, his misses were on the correct side and, when he did get out of position at the 16th hole, he took his medicine, wrote down a bogey, and simply went and got the shot back with a dynamite approach to the last.
There was fortune involved in that closing birdie - his drive kicked out of the heavy stuff, into the inconsequential first cut - but it's on such breaks that major-winning platforms are built. And there's no doubt he now has one. Wolff is two ahead of his closest pursuer, four ahead of the only other player under-par, and five ahead of all bar those two.
Just how well this amiable, quirky youngster has slept we will perhaps find out later, but I do not expect him to bow to pressure and disappear from this leaderboard in the way that Dustin Johnson did a decade ago. In little more than a year as a professional he has contended on three occasions, winning his first title with an eagle, doing little wrong when leading the Rocket Mortgage Classic and settling for second, and flushing his way to a top-five finish on his major debut at the PGA Championship.
Throughout all of these tournaments, BRYSON DECHAMBEAU has been a constant presence and while Wolff may not give in easily, it could well be that the more decorated player ultimately takes home one of the biggest prizes in golf.
It was DeChambeau who had the 3M Open stolen from him by Wolff's closing eagle, and he gained a measure of revenge in Detroit where, trailing by three, he quickly reeled in the leader and went on to win his sixth PGA Tour title. Wolff couldn't buy a putt that day and yet birdied five of his last seven holes to make sure DeChambeau had to work hard for it.
Ten weeks later and DeChambeau, despite being a shot closer this time, goes into the final round at the same price. It looks a little on the generous side, and the way he battled back from bogeys at the first two holes in the third round bodes well for what's ahead. Most importantly, his long game has been sharp and with the field playing from the rough more often than the fairway, I think he's found it easier to gain an advantage by muscling shots out of the rough, as we saw spectacularly at the ninth yesterday.
The biggest concern coming into the event was that his form was poor. Some will have argued his methodology cannot work at a US Open, but it worked in a difficult PGA Championship and I'm not sure there's a course outside of Valderrama at which, harnessed properly, his combination of strength and a desire to put it to use would not be an asset.
He's answered the form concern and it's those approach shots which have been key. All summer we've seen him fly wedges too far or spin them too much having taken a hole to its knees with a 370-yard drive down the middle. We saw it again at the first hole on Saturday, in fact. And yet for the most part this week he has found a measure of control and precision which had gone missing throughout the FedEx Cup Playoffs. I think it could well power a breakthrough major win.
Wolff does have some motivational factors which may well have underpinned this performance. His agent is very unwell, a point he referenced on Saturday night and one which helps him to downplay the significance of a golf tournament - even this one. And then there's Morikawa, his college sparring partner who so ruthlessly collected his own first major. Wolff will absolutely have been inspired by that confirmation that, these days, a lack of experience isn't much of a barrier.
And yet he goes into this round with a target on his back, playing alongside perhaps the one rival he wouldn't want to see next to him on that first tee. DeChambeau's constant self-analysis and pace of play can unsettle anyone at the best of times. Under the pressure of a US Open final round, he may be able to take Wolff out of his rhythm and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's ahead by the turn.
The above effectively bills this as a match, which it isn't. There are plenty of candidates to fire the best-of-the-day round which would see them enter the conversation, Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele perhaps the pick of them. However, DeChambeau hasn't yet shot over-par and both members of the final group will have to go backwards if this is to really open up. I don't expect them to.
Looking at the two-balls it's tempting to take on a wayward Justin Thomas with Billy Horschel and there's a case for opposing Alex Noren, whose putting on Saturday was unimaginably good, even by his standards. Lucas Glover is 11/8 in a place to outscore the Swede and could well do so, having been solid throughout the bag, but at the end of a long week I don't quite have the stomach for watching Noren pour in a 30-foot par save while Glover three-putts for bogey.
Opposing Shane Lowry almost paid off on Saturday - unfortunately, he was grouped with one of the six players in a field of 61 who scored worse - but again, Chesson Hadley isn't my idea of a strong candidate to expose the fact that Lowry wants out of here. He said so himself after the second round and would probably rather the Irish Open were not taking place next week.
The advice then is a small double on RICKIE FOWLER and TONY FINAU both to win their two-balls against English opposition, in the shape of Matt Wallace and Lee Westwood respectively.
Fowler looked good in round three, doing very little wrong as conditions were at their toughest. He gave away a shot carelessly at the 10th with a three-putt and again at the 18th with a short-sided approach, but overall there were lots of positives as he looks for something to take with him into the season ahead.
It's not a big surprise the putter has held him back as he's been remodelling his swing with John Tillery and, often, that can lead to a lack of attention elsewhere. Still, those swing changes look to be bedding in and he's always been an excellent feel player, ideal for when conditions are tough and there's some old-fashioned instinct required.
Wallace has hit plenty of fairways and greens this week and isn't taken on lightly, especially as he showed how much he enjoys a grind when staying the course at Muirfield Village this summer. Still, he's struggled as the greens have got faster and pins trickier following a strong start and having scored the best in round three, I expect Fowler to do the same in round four.
Finau drove the ball really well on Saturday and ought to have got more out of his round. At three-over and in a share of 21st, he's not completely out of this if able to produce a Wolff-like number and all summer he's underlined how well he plays these tough, long courses with thick rough and fast greens.
At just over 2/1 the double a small bet gets the nod, stakes reduced from Saturday owing to the fact that this is more about two players I expect to play well rather than finding weakness in opponents. Westwood and Wallace are respected but for now it's USA all the way.
Posted at 0925 BST on 20/09/20
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