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US Open betting tips: Ben Coley's preview of the third men's golf major of 2022
Ben Coley has produced outright profit in both men's majors so far this year, and he fancies Jon Rahm to defend his US Open title.
Golf betting tips: US Open
4pts win Jon Rahm at 16/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
1.5pts e.w. Max Homa at 45/1 (bet365, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Ryan Fox at 250/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
As golf finds itself in the news and more people start asking questions, it becomes clear how much confusion there is around its major championships, especially in the men's game. The idea that the PGA Tour doesn't run any of them seems puzzling to some but it's nonetheless true, and where the US Open is concerned, that's sometimes been as much a source of frustration to players as it is bewilderment to fans new and old.
Instead, this tournament, now the third major of the year, is run by the United States Golf Association – the USGA – and whether it's in reference to choice of host venue, set-up of course or management of the tournament once it begins, the organisation has come under fire many times over the last decade in particular. Who can forget the handling of Dustin Johnson's supposed infraction in 2016, or the state of Shinnecock's greens two years later.
But the USGA seems to be moving with the times and there may be no better demonstration of that than the return of one of America's old classics to the US Open rotation as The Country Club – Brookline, as most of us know it – gets the chance to prove that it too can handle all the things that have changed in this sport since Curtis Strange won here in 1988.
Collaboration is key to all of this, with restoration king Gil Hanse again in the spotlight and Brookline member Henry Richardson having found the key to some routing questions and a perceived imbalance among the chosen nines, which now include a par-three 11th which may not even be a full wedge for this week's guests and conjures thoughts of the famous seventh hole at Pebble Beach.
It was of course Hanse's team who were behind the rejuvenation of Southern Hills, a quite brilliant stage for last month's PGA Championship, and they've been involved in everything that has changed at Brookline since 2009, including preparations for the 2013 US Amateur won by Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Some of the changes will be familiar to anyone with a working knowledge of Hanse's style, or else jog the memories of those who read about the US PGA prior to Justin Thomas's dramatic win there. It will not surprise any of these people to know that trees have been removed, for instance, and some short grass added such as at the eighth, a par-five which should be a birdie chance but still threatens disaster thanks to a dramatic false front.
Ultimately, everything done to three loops of nine holes which together make up a composite US Open course has been with the twin ambitions of restoring a classic course to its best self, while modernising in the ways necessary to test the very best players in the game.
Of course, the USGA won't bend fully to the will of those who aren't keen on their trademark thick rough, and that's one of the many challenges this par 70 will present. Chief among them, however, is only tenuously tied to the other staple of this tournament, which is its demand for long driving. It is the size of Brookline's greens, still well below 5,000 square feet on average despite some small increases. They seem sure to make this a proper US Open if scoring is our best measure, as will a series of blind or obscured shots throughout the course.
With its classic clubhouse and New England topography as the backdrop this promises to be another brilliant major in a year which will take some topping, given that the Old Course at St Andrews is still to come. And if Rory McIlroy follows up his Canadian Open win to end a major drought stretching back to 2014, when one victory led to another, then it could well be that the US Open is the star of a stellar group, something we haven't often said of late.
McIlroy is favourite now with US PGA hero Thomas on his tail, meaning we've flipped the front of the market from last month. That might just be harsh on Scottie Scheffler and JON RAHM, both hurt by the draw in Oklahoma, and I'm taking the latter to join Strange and Brooks Koepka in defending this title at the first attempt.
It's always difficult to know what to expect from a course which we seldom see, even if it is steeped in history. But the US Open has been the domain of brilliant drivers over the last few years (Johnson, Koepka, Woodland, DeChambeau, Rahm) and that I believe will continue, with perhaps a little more emphasis on the accuracy part of the equation versus what we got from Torrey Pines and, more dramatically, Winged Foot.
If Rahm isn't the best driver in the sport then he's certainly no worse than third, and ever since emerging six or seven years ago he's based his superiority on a nice, balanced, very much modern blend of power and precision. That's why he leads the total driving charts, a combination of fairways and distance, and he's also number one right now in strokes-gained off-the-tee.
Providing a mishap at Muirfield Village is behind him, and I expect it to be, Rahm can base his defence on the strongest club in the bag. After that, he's also first in greens hit for the season and 22nd in strokes-gained approach so finding these tiny targets is something he can do better than most, while we've seen short-game improvements after that him back at the start of the year.
Smaller greens will inevitably lead to more misses, but long grass around them might just take away the advantage held by the very best chippers in the world. That's why I was tempted to side with Viktor Hovland, whose short-game is his only handicap, but he's not been hitting the ball well lately whereas Rahm was the best driver in the field in the US PGA, and either side of it all other aspects of his game have been solid.
It is a bit troubling that he complained about how his swing felt when last we saw him and yet he still finished 10th, so there's huge potential for Rahm if he does get his main weapon firing once more, and with it draw a line under some moderate performances in the biggest tournaments so far this year. No doubt being down the field at Augusta and in the PGA will have stung but it's not something worth dwelling on where a proven major performer is concerned.
Certainly, of the top four in the market he's the one who looks best suited to a typical US Open set-up along with Scheffler, and we can see that not just through his win last year but also third place at Pebble Beach. Perhaps that will be among the better recent form guides given its greens are smaller still, while Rahm won arguably the most 'US Open-style' PGA Tour event held over the last couple of seasons, the 2020 BMW Championship.
He won't have minded seeing McIlroy and Thomas fighting it out in Canada while he enjoyed a quieter preparation and neither do I, as it removes my nagging worry about his price. At 16/1 he looks the pick of the four and you might get another point or so on the exchanges, with my advice to back him win-only in expectation of a strong title defence.
Hovland's 12th place as an amateur at Pebble Beach and 13th at Winged Foot a year later really does intrigue me. These are to date two of his best three major performances, though his record is stronger than it looks as the only time he failed to make the weekend in any of the 10 he's played was when suffering a freak eye injury in this last year.
Given what we know about the Norwegian, who is truly top-class in all departments bar chipping, it can be argued that the US Open is for now his best opportunity. Yes, he'll have to call upon his short-game this week, but thick rough definitely levels the playing field and we've seen him produce some of his best around-the-green stats at places like Bay Hill, Quail Hollow, Winged Foot, and the aforementioned Pebble Beach.
Having also won the US Amateur at the latter and ranking second only to Rahm in total driving, there's so much to like – except the fact that not only is he yet to really taste the heat of battle at this level, but he arrives in poor form. Even a hot putter hasn't helped him on his last two starts and he certainly won't win this unless his long-game returns to its early-season best.
You could say the same of his college contemporary COLLIN MORIKAWA, but there's no doubt whose major CV reads best so far and at 28/1, I can't resist taking a chance on the American.
Yes, Morikawa has been quiet since a top-five finish at the Masters, and I've pondered the idea that the US Open will be harder for him to win than that event as he goes about the second half of the career grand slam. However, Brookline is shorter than Torrey Pines, where he contended last year, and its small greens will certainly emphasise quality approach play.
That's Morikawa's main strength, as one of the very finest iron players of his generation, and there's been nothing much wrong with it lately. After a good performance through the bag at Augusta he ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach at the Heritage, and in three subsequent starts has kept ticking over, including when ranking seventh in the Charles Schwab Challenge.
His own short-game problems have held him back throughout this run but that's him, a player capable of turning it on seemingly out of nowhere. Last summer that meant winning the Open having hacked it round the Scottish Open, earlier in the year he followed 43rd at Riviera with victory in the WGC-Workday, and his breakthrough run in the summer of 2020 doesn't exactly scream consistency: 2-64-MC-1-48-20-1-MC-20-7-MC.
The idea that he can win out of nowhere means he's always going to be worth a glance at big prices, but it's that combination of small greens, a shorter-than-standard US Open course (though it'll still play pretty long), and maybe an extra emphasis on driving accuracy that I really like. Morikawa ranks 20th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and seventh in total driving because he pounds fairways while getting it out there far enough.
Throw in largely poa annua greens and the Californian has plenty in his favour, with so many recent winners of this having bagged a major top-10 in their last couple of starts. Morikawa's form at this level shows two wins and three further places and this will be just his 11th major, at a course I suspect he'll love.
Cantlay can prove a point
It may be of little use to many readers but being on Sam Burns at 66/1 antepost, plus 16/1 to win any major this year, means I can quickly breeze past one of the sport's form players, while I do worry somewhat that Will Zalatoris might not hit enough fairways here. That's antiquated thinking in some respects, but Hanse referred to long fescue grass that makes this very different to the last three renewals and potentially more hazardous.
Similar concerns relate to Joaquin Niemann who I am quite sweet on generally, especially as both his Riviera win and BMW Championship third might otherwise make for a good case. Shane Lowry meanwhile continues to demonstrate that he's in the form of his life but, as is true with Fitzpatrick, even allowing for extra places I can't see much scope in prices under 33/1.
Instead I'm drawn to the Zurich Classic winners, Xander Schauffele and PATRICK CANTLAY, and the latter probably deserves preference given what he's achieved over the last couple of years.
There are some caveats ranging from the fact the Zurich was a team event, his head start in the TOUR Championship and Rahm's withdrawal when six clear in the Memorial, but Cantlay has become a prolific winner lately and it still seems a matter of time before he earns himself another chance at this level.
Without doubt he's been disappointing in majors since his only two top-10s at the beginning of 2019, but he has made all six US Open cuts and providing it's not in his head, which I doubt it is, there's really no reason for his poor recent form in them to continue. To a large extent, I think it's anomalous and doesn't reflect any kind of problem.
In this episode of Swing Whisperers, GOLF Top 100 Teacher Jaime Mulligan dishes on his star students, the Korda sisters and Patrick Cantlay. pic.twitter.com/nl7quLzHX6
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) June 10, 2022
Rahm had scarcely had a proper chance to win one before grabbing his opportunity last summer so while there is a question for Cantlay to answer, under the right circumstances I won't let it discourage me. A US Open at Brookline, a mid-length par 70 on these poa/bentgrass greens and where his all-around game will be tested, looks like it could really suit this massive talent.
Currently ranked 15th in total driving and 18th in strokes-gained off the tee, Cantlay is one of the game's elite who relies a little more on accuracy having been inside the top 50 at the end of every season on the PGA Tour. He's become an elite scrambler and putter, and though his iron play is prone to wild swings it was elite at the RBC Heritage in April, when taking aim at the smallest greens on the circuit.
Subsequently victorious alongside Schauffele when doing the heavy lifting, and then an excellent third as defending champion in the Memorial, Cantlay is in red-hot form and that's always been the case prior to winning. The only thing left to do is prove that he can deliver when it really matters and anyone who watched last year's Ryder Cup, or his earlier play-off win in Baltimore, ought to believe he will at some stage do that.
Homa makes Max appeal
At this point it seems worth acknowledging that majors really are dominated by the elite and that exceptions tend to come with explanations, such as the inherent volatility of a windswept Open Championship or from someone like Phil Mickelson last year. You have to go back to 2010 for the last time this event was won by someone ranked outside the world's top 30, and that was by a few places.
Now, Mito Pereira was a par away from winning as the world number 100 just a few weeks ago so we shouldn't assume this run of elite winners will go on forever, but US Opens tend to be a test of execution above all else, so it stands to reason that those who are best at executing dominate. It will be a bit of a surprise if the winner isn't truly elite, which is enough to lead me away from Keegan Bradley at 80/1.
Instead, my final two realistic options are MAX HOMA and SUNGJAE IM.
Homa at times looks like he doesn't really believe in himself and perhaps that explains what was a very poor major record. However, every week brings a new career-high ranking right now and after winning the Wells Fargo in tough conditions from world-class opposition, he produced his best major yet when 13th at the US PGA.
Since then he's been 23rd and fifth to continue an outstanding run of golf and with three wins to his name in less than 18 months, including in the high-class Genesis Invitational, his form now speaks for itself. Hopefully it'll be rewarded with a Presidents Cup debut and it would not surprise me at all were he to seal that spot by contending here.
Above all else, Homa's CV tells us he prefers a proper test and like all of my selections to varying degrees, the way he drives the ball is a key part of that. Another who is above average in accuracy as well as distance, he's 30th in SG: off the tee and similarly ranked in those total driving stats.
A fabulous putter who scrambles well, one whose iron play is very much elite on a going week, Homa's success isn't hard to explain and his swing is admired by experts the world over. His form right now is rock-solid, two of his four PGA Tour wins have come on similar greens, and it'll be disappointing if he can't at the very least improve on a poor record in his national championship.
Im meanwhile ticks just about every box and was the first name on my list.
The Korean has a major top-10 this year, he's had a genuine chance to win one courtesy of his runner-up finish in the 2020 Masters, he's inside the world's top 30, and his first PGA Tour win came under tough conditions in an event which so often goes to a major champion or one of the future.
That's all right in front of you and then up he popped when looking at bogey avoidance stats, which aren't flawless but do often help unearth major contenders. The top 10 right now includes Pereira, for instance, who was sixth heading into the PGA. Fitzpatrick was seventh and he too featured there behind winner Thomas, who ranked second at the time.
Eagle on No. 13 and the co-lead for Sungjae Im. #themasters pic.twitter.com/v2aj0TihFz
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 7, 2022
Right now, Im ranks second and he's been right towards the top of the list ever since his rookie season. He's the complete package, a rounded golfer in the Cantlay mould who is operating at elite levels from tee-to-green, and whose hot-and-cold putter is always capable of doing something special even if it is sometimes hard to pin down.
Another accurate driver but not a short one by any means, he's just behind McIlroy in total driving and simply looks in a great place. The fact he missed the US PGA due to testing positive for Covid-19 might add a little extra determination, and I believe Brookline could suit more than Torrey Pines and Winged Foot did, though he played just fine at both of those courses.
Older than his years and so far brilliant under pressure, Im looks a player capable of winning majors and a balanced renewal of the US Open could be just the ticket.
Fox can creep into contention
Finally, for those seeking an each-way play at big odds, my recommendation is to nod to the sneakily good record held by in-form, lesser-known players from what's now the DP World Tour in this tournament.
While all five European winners dating back to 2010 have been inside the world's top 50, plenty of lesser lights have shone in the US Open. Guido Migliozzi for instance arrived with form figures of 2-2 last year and took seventh, with his British Masters conqueror Richard Bland having held the halfway lead.
Graeme McDowell of course won the US Open right on the heels of victory in Wales, and in 2005 Michael Campbell shocked the world despite being an in-form world number 80. More recently, players like Matt Wallace, Bernd Wiesberger, Tommy Fleetwood and Lowry have arrived from Europe and shown up really well.
Dutch Open one-two Victor Perez and RYAN FOX are the most compelling options along with the more rugged potential of Sam Horsfield, and it's Fox who I really could see sticking around.
Since winning the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February, he's played five DP World Tour events and could've won two of them, twice finishing runner-up including when gifting victory to Perez in the Netherlands a couple of weeks ago.
It's true that 54th place in the PGA reveals the difference in grade quite starkly as it's his only backwards step since winning in the Middle East, but Fox was only two behind the eventual winner entering the final round and it's not all that fanciful to imagine him seeing things through for another 18 holes.
He's got more major experience than Perez and on balance a better record at this level, his iron play has been outstanding all year, and of the two his short-game is the more trustworthy. Throw in a slightly bigger price and he gets the vote to emulate Campbell and give us two New Zealand winners in less than 20 years.
Posted at 1525 BST on 13/06/22
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