MMA betting tips: UFC
3pts Max Griffin to win by KO or Decision at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Trevin Giles to win at 5/4 (Unibet)
After his underwhelming loss at UFC 259, Israel Adesanya will certainly be looking to move back down to Middleweight and continue his reign over the division. The coming weeks feature a host of main events featuring top-10 competitors at 185lbs, all hoping to stake their claim as the next rightful challenger for the New Zealander’s belt.
The first of these events takes place on Saturday night, as the 2020 Fighter of the Year Kevin Holland faces the resurgent Derek Brunson.
The main event promises to be a closely contested battle between two of the division’s most underrated fighters, but there are more valuable betting spots elsewhere on the main card, as well as in the preliminary action.
Max Pain to win again
MAX GRIFFIN has been one of the most consistent preliminary fighters for the UFC in recent years, and has been rewarded with a rare spot on the main card this Saturday night. Looking to land back-to-back victories for the first time in the organisation, Max Pain must first defeat Song Kenan, a Chinese striker with 14 stoppage victories to his name.
Griffin displayed some brilliant stand-up skills of his own in his last outing, thoroughly out-striking Ramiz Brahimaj and causing a third-round TKO stoppage. The American has always been a polished striker, utilising an educated jab to keep his opponents honest and prevent them from establishing any offence of their own. This will be vital against the lower output of Kenan, as Griffin will need to stay disciplined and avoid any powerful strikes that could put him in any danger.
Although it is always his back-up plan, Griffin’s wrestling is also formidable. He can get the fight to the ground in open space or in the clinch, but his ability to dictate where the fight takes place is a vital asset. Kenan has consistently struggled against competent grappling in his UFC career, defending just 45% of takedown attempts he has faced. While I do not expect Griffin to put on a wrestling clinic in this bout, I think he can upset the rhythm of the contest with level changes and sway rounds in his favour from top position.
Overall, the only criteria in this fight where I give a significant advantage to Kenan is in the power department. If Griffin can avoid a clean strike that causes the end of the fight, then I think he will demonstrate that he is the more fluent striker, the better athlete and, most importantly, the more complete martial artist.
I expect Griffin to pick up a victory via the judges’ scorecards, but a win by (T)KO is not out of the question either. To have both paths to victory covered at odds of 8/11 feels like a steal and is the best bet on the entire card.
Giles to cause the upset
TREVIN GILES’ UFC career has been nothing short of eventful so far. After dominating his first two bouts, Giles went on to have back-to-back losses inside the Octagon, losing by third-round stoppage on both occasions when he was comfortably ahead. A dubious decision victory over fan favourite James Krause followed soon after, and suddenly Giles was both disliked and discredited by the masses.
Giles’ opponent, Roman Dolidze, makes his Middleweight debut on short notice, and it is a curious move. In both of his UFC fights at Light Heavyweight, the Georgian has looked like one of the stockier, slower fighters in the division, so moving down to face even faster opponents seems like it could be detrimental to his progress.
Giles can certainly use the inevitable speed advantage to his benefit here. Dolidze is a single-strike fighter that seldom uses combinations and, while the American is no volume striker in his own right, I would expect him to produce better numbers each round and look the more active of the two fighters. Giles will certainly have to be wary of the power that Dolidze possesses, but he has proven himself capable of surviving against more than a few hard-hitting opponents.
The striking exchanges will certainly be telling, but this fight could very much be won and lost in the grappling. Both men have shown real ability from top position, but Dolidze is certainly the much more credentialed grappler as a BJJ specialist. As previously mentioned, a small lapse in concentration led to Giles being submitted in round three of two previous bouts, so he will have to be extremely careful if he finds himself on the mat against the Georgian.
The opening round could well be chaos, but if the action enters rounds two and three then I believe Giles should have significantly better cardio. With his speed advantage, Giles will be able to threaten with a quicker pace than his opponent, and his ability to defend takedowns and dictate where the fight takes place should sap the cardio of Dolidze down the stretch. The Georgian slowed down significantly in the third round of his last bout, as he had never previously ventured that far into a fight.
Overall, I think this is a fairly close fight, but the speed advantages of the natural 185-pounder and the inferior cardio of Dolidze (who takes this fight on short notice) have me questioning why Giles is the underdog. He has shown serious potential across his UFC career so far and, barring a lapse in concentration, should be composed enough to overcome Dolidze on Saturday night.
Posted at 1210 GMT on 18/03/21
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