Golf expert Ben Coley previews the Turkish Airlines Open, as the Race To Dubai battle begins to hot up.
The European Tour returns to Turkey for the fifth edition of the Turkish Airlines Open, where last week's winner Justin Rose is priced up to duel it out with friend Henrik Stenson as the season draws towards its conclusion.
Stenson will be eager to get one over his Ryder Cup partner having again chased him home in China, just as he did at last summer's Olympics, but it's Rose whose incentive is perhaps greater still. He's up to third in the Race To Dubai standings and while Tommy Fleetwood's lead is still a commanding one, Rose knows that more late-season fireworks could yet see him top the charts. It means a lot to both men.
Still, I would edge towards Stenson at 8/1. He's been third and seventh in this event, albeit at a different venue, and is striking the ball beautifully. Plus, while Rose's chief weapon might be the driver, Stenson's is unmistakably the three-wood and that's more than enough around Regnum Carya, a medium-sized par 71 which threw up a mixed bag last year, but with an unmistakable leaning towards those who you might describe as accurate.
Thorbjorn Olesen isn't usually one for finding fairways - indeed, he ranked 64th of 75 players measured for driving accuracy - but he was still able to hit 60 greens. That's because this is a resort course, where the rough is insignificant and everything is geared towards fun and friendly golf. Undulating greens and the occasional stiff breeze are the only real challenge, along with the trees which line these fairways, but Regnum Carya is meat and drink to classy tournament professionals and it's easy to envisage Stenson - or Rose - setting up 60-plus birdie chances and taking enough of them to win.
The same goes for Joost Luiten, who gets the headline vote at 33/1 generally.
It's hardly been a stellar year for the 31-year-old, trapped in that lucrative but frustrating gap between good and elite players, which means he wins in his turn in Europe, doesn't tend to compete in majors, and hasn't yet looked like making his way onto the Ryder Cup team.
But the evidence of a high-class second at Valderrama last time, beaten a whisker by doyen Sergio Garcia, is that Luiten might be about to land the biggest pot of his career and take a giant leap towards the world's top 50 and, potentially, a Ryder Cup debut.
Luiten was exceptional in Spain, save for a short putt which went begging at a crucial point. Throughout the week his iron play was electric - no doubt his biggest weapon when firing - and he'll have got a real thrill from pushing the Masters champion to his limits. How could you not?
Sometimes a near-miss takes it out of a player, but it depends on the circumstances. Kiradech Aphibarnrat's one poor week in the last two months came after he'd blown the KLM Open, for instance, but Luiten can only take positives from what happened in Spain and has had a week off to recover.
While some - Olesen being a prime example - win from out of the blue, taking a rare chance when it does come their way, Luiten's victories have all been easy to spot. He's won his national title twice, both times when in form, while his Wales Open victory came after back-to-back top-five finishes. Go back to 2011 and his breakthrough title and you'll see he'd been fifth the week before and his form prior to his second win, in Austria, was 8-MC-11.
Just last spring, he finished second at Valderrama, then took second a week later under very different conditions at the Shenzhen International, so I'm more than hopeful he can adapt to the low-scoring requirements of Turkey and put his precision iron play to use on what's his first visit to the course. He looks the best bet.
Security concerns ahead of last year's renewal meant that just three of the world's top 50 turned up, so victory for Olesen isn't proof that the best players are vulnerable, but look at previous editions of this event and you'll see that perhaps they are. Brooks Koepka might be a major winner now but he was a maiden before breaking through here, as was Victor Dubuisson a year earlier, and many fancied runners have come up just short.
With that in mind I'll shun the very head of the market, despite the temptation to give Matt Fitzpatrick yet another spin, and add Bernd Wiesberger at a similar price to Luiten.
First I must admit that I've been disappointed with the Austrian since his victory over Fleetwood in the spring. That was the culmination of months and months of hard work and excellent golf, but he hasn't kicked on - he was fourth a week later, only then to steadily drop down leaderboards until two rare missed cuts in August.
However, two top-10 finishes in four starts since, both powered by elite iron play, suggest he's on his way back and poised to contend here just as he did when fourth last year.
Olesen led by seven with 18 holes to play but things got interesting on Sunday thanks to a burst of scoring from his pal and while Wiesberger was unable to keep it up over the closing stretch, it was his second top-10 in as many starts at the course having played here on the Challenge Tour some years ago.
One of just two players to break par in all four rounds of the WGC-HSBC Champions last week, Wiesberger is the sort of player who really should be looking to press on and earn a Ryder Cup place, especially as he's a winner at next year's venue, and it can begin here. Like Stenson and Rose, he could have 60-plus birdie and eagle chances and if the putter catches fire there's every chance he can come out on top.
George Coetzee has a good profile for this but is yet to win outside of Africa and looks skinny enough as usual, comments which also apply to Shane Lowry, so the other relatively fancied runners for me are Ian Poulter and Alex Levy.
Poulter should've won this event when the title instead went to Koepka. He held a six-shot lead at halfway but, perhaps knocked off his stride by bad weather, fell one back with 18 to play and that's where he finished, unable to match the American despite a bogey-free 67 to close.
We are at a different course now but not a dissimilar one and his record in Turkey (5-2-16) plus incentive to right the wrongs of 2014 add to what appears a solid case for Poulter here.
It's been spoken about many times previously, but for the purposes of this preview his record as the year comes to an end bears repeating. He's won five of 42 starts in November, with another five runner-up finishes to go with those titles, and has finished inside the top 10 almost half the time.
With a place in the world's top 50 at stake - he's 54th currently - and some really good golf of late, including 15th place in better company last time out on the PGA Tour, everything points towards another big week and it's simply a question of whether he can stick around on Sunday, a habit that some say he has lost.
However, we don't have to go back far for third place in the Canadian Open and second in the PLAYERS earlier this season and with Ryder Cup points up for grabs, there may be no player with higher motivation in this field.
Whether it's enough, we'll see, but Poulter expressed his frustration at not being in the field for last week's WGC, an event he's won before, and I'm hoping he shows it by taking this excellent opportunity.
Martin Kaymer is similarly tempting at 66/1, a price rarely offered about the German. He'll have plenty of support here - Marcel Siem once said it was like playing on home soil - and has been hitting the ball well for some time. I just wonder whether he quite has it in him to card the four low rounds required.
Levy certainly does and he rates a better bet at just a slightly shorter price, all things considered.
The Frenchman finished 25th in Turkey last year but that really doesn't tell the full story. He made a quadruple-bogey in round one and then a nine in round two, a quintuple bogey, before following it with a double. Those three holes ruined an otherwise productive week in which he made 24 birdies; winner Olesen managed 23 and an eagle and Levy really should've got more for his efforts.
A year on, he returns in good form having finished seventh in the Dunhill Links, 26th in Italy and then 31st in the WGC-HSBC Champions, in company he rarely keeps. Again, birdies were no issue as he made as many as Stenson and this easier, lower-grade event gives him the chance to build on his encouraging play.
Like Luiten, Levy's four wins have been fairly easy to spot, all having come on the back of some good recent play, and he can throw his name into the hat for Paris next year, using this event as a springboard just as compatriot Dubuisson did.
Richie Ramsay keeps catching the eye and is always a threat under these conditions, while Andrew Johnston flushed it in Spain on his second start back from a break, played well here last year and is one to watch at 100/1.
Others of note include Julian Suri, who should take to this low-scoring resort course, Benjamin Hebert, a solid top-20 play, and even Renato Paratore at a monster price. The talented young Italian recovered from an opening 77 to scythe through the field at Valderrama and will be better suited to this layout, where he was 25th last year.
Like Paratore, my final selection gained his breakthrough win earlier this year and I think Adrian Otaegui can go close to landing his second title.
The Spaniard landed the Paul Lawrie Match Play so will surely be eager to validate that success in stroke play company, and 12th place back home at Valderrama last time suggests he might just do that here.
Day 1 practice here in Turkey! Getting some wings for the week! #redbull #golf #sport #turkey #sun 👍👍 pic.twitter.com/Unf9lzx7uf
— Adrian Otaegui (@adrianotaegui) October 30, 2017
Granted, this is an altogether different test but a second-round 63 paved the way for 13th place on his debut in the event last year and this straight-shooter returns a better, more confident player.
The weather in Turkey will go down well with the Spanish players - all five in last year's field finished inside the top 25 - and at three-figure prices, Olazabal's protege looks the best of the outsiders.
Recommended bets: Turkish Airlines Open
Posted at 1940 GMT on 30/10/17.
